100k+ deaths in the USA. Brazil rapid growth in daily cases and daily deaths.  

Germany has less than 10,000 active cases now, first big European country.

eh I wouldn't trust these numbers too much. They are just estimated and IMO a few thousand, maybe even ten thousand too low compared to other countries.

It's probably better to count patients in ICUs.

Yes, also people in ICU are a few.

744 in a country of 84 million people.

in comparison

1,559 in UK with 66 million people

1,429 in France with 65 million people

489 in Italy with 60 million people

18 in Denmark with 5,8 million people.   ^-^

Patients in ICU is great to see go down, but it is lagging behind a lot. Right now Europe needs to pay attention to if and how growth restores for a second wave while re-opening. ICU cases and reported deaths will still keep declining for a couple weeks while infections can already be on the rise again. It's the same with peaking in infections, then peaking in reported deaths a week later and peaking in active cases 4 weeks later. (ICU peak should be in between those, maybe 2 weeks after the reported case growth peak). The real infection peak will be 1 to 2 weeks before the reported cases growth peak.

In the below diagram, infection is 5 days before day 0, "Symptoms".
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/typical-covid-19-progression-1.5546949

People get infected, day 0
People start showing symptoms, day 5
People get tested, day 7+ (those that show symptoms enough to go for a test)
Test results come in, day 9+
Test results get added in daily counts, day 10+ (close to 14 days in the data from Ontario)
Hospitalization, day 12+ (10 to 12 day stay on average)
ICU admission, day 15+ (average 8 to 14 day stay, different per country)
ICU recovery about the same time as spend in the ICU.
Death, on average 23 days after infection. (generally 7 days after ICU admission)
Hospital recovery 30+ days after infection.

Thus the ICU peak is over 2 weeks behind the infection peak. ICU decline (or lowest point) is over 3 weeks behind.


What is currently important is to detect when infections start rising again. Better (earlier and faster) testing and tracing should be the focus. However, a lot of countries in Europe are currently 'playing' with the numbers, adding anti body test results (useless for detecting growth), removing presumptive cases making numbers look smaller, or switching to a different system not reporting anything atm.

For example Spain: On May 25th, the government decreased the number of total cases by 372 and the number of deaths to 26837. The discrepancy is the result of the validation of the same data by the autonomous communities and the transition to a new surveillance strategy. Discrepancies could persist for several days. We've adjusted our figures to reflect the new numbers)
The last data infometer has is 482, -372, 859, 510, 1137 reported cases and 74, -1915, 280, 0, 0 reported deaths. How do you tell what's going on with that.


ICU count is great to confirm the growth peak is/was real, but it's a greatly delayed statistic to see how re-openings are going. Yet with all the corrections and huge lag in detecting cases, it's better than nothing :/ Problem is, when you see ICU admissions going up again, it's the result of infections going up again up to 3 weeks earlier :/

This pandemic is certainly heightening emotions and bringing long term issues to a boil. Sadly the riots in the USA right now are no surprise. Long term injustice plus people stuck at home without a job facing an uncertain future equals explosion.

@SpokenTruth maybe relevant for your son's girlfriend?
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/immediate-families-could-soon-cross-u-s-border-pm-1.4960361

This won't help anything
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/trump-cuts-world-health-organization-ties-over-covid-19-response-1.4960848

School re-openings too soon?
https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/quebec-says-41-students-and-staff-have-tested-positive-for-covid-19-since-reopening-1.4960628

Bad day all around, Ontario numbers going up again. However Ford changed his stance on a regional approach to re-opening (finally) and testing capacity should be going up again. You can now get tested if you suspect you might have been in contact with someone who is infected. You no longer need to have symptoms first. As well as mandatory screenings, This week, Toronto first responders and LCBO employees were ordered to undergo testing, along with staff at certain adult correctional facilities, hospital staff and workers at various congregate residential settings. Funny the liquor stores get lumped in with first responders.

My antibody came through as not detected.

Don't some Americans avoid the health care system entirely due to it's exorbitant expense though?

It's always going to be difficult to get the most accurate numbers, with different demographics and health systems, but the numbers paint an "idea" of what is going on, which is usually more than sufficient.

4 in Australia with 24~ million people.

I kinda expect a new big spike in Germany any day now. Sure, most people do the distancing and a staggering amount is actually wearing masks but there are still many instances where tons of people are packed in tiny spaces, at which point masks are useless.