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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

-4F not too bad but still cold. I believe worst it ever got in Ohio when I was there was -20F+ with wind chill. Although you guys are on metric and C. That would take me time to get used to if ever. Plus I have to remember to say eh after every sentence. 😉



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Wind chill, never really thought much of that term until I moved to Canada 18 years ago... When it says feels like -38c, do not go outside lol. I never knew how painful just a bit of blowing air can be!

Canada still has to get used to metric, or rather we use both for different things. Pool temperature and thermostats are usually in Fahrenheit while the weather reports in Celcius. Same with all other measurements, baking is a regular math problem here :)



Barozi said:
Germany saw a decrease of 24% in new infections week over week from 4.7k to 3.6k.
Numbers in 14 out of 16 federal states declined but two of them increased by 30-45% which is somewhat concerning.
Testing capacity for the past week will be revealed tomorrow. Doubt it will change much.

Well well this statement was definitely wrong. Testing decreased by almost 100k. I guess part of the reason was a public holiday last week but even without it the numbers shouldn't have been this low.

In truth, infections in Germany went down about 10% WoW.

Last edited by Barozi - on 27 May 2020

SpokenTruth said:
SvennoJ said:

How tightly closed are your borders?

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/thousands-of-travellers-still-arriving-in-canada-despite-border-restrictions-1.4955403

"a lot of people" are exempt from Canada's border restrictions, including relatives of Canadian citizens, citizens being repatriated, foreign workers and foreign students. "We have not shut down the borders completely. We are letting people in for a variety of reasons, all of which are good reasons, but the concern that I have is: are [the rules] really being enforced in terms of quarantine," Gradek said.

In total, 123,694 passengers from the U.S. and 301,781 international travellers have arrived in Canada by plane since March 21.

My son's girlfriend is still down here with us even though she's allowed to return to Toronto. Just best to not risk it.

Toronto is still a hot spot and 2 weeks quarantine is mandatory when you return.
They're still figuring out how to make the airport safe as well (nvm the flight...)


And you risk getting charged if you happen to infect anyone after returning... (province to province travel in this case)
https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/three-newest-covid-19-cases-stem-from-irresponsible-traveller-who-failed-to-self-isolate-n-b-premier-1.4957051

New Brunswick has reported its third new case of COVID-19 in a the last week and all are in a single cluster connected to a health-care worker at the Campbellton Hospital who failed to self-isolate after travelling to Quebec. The other two active cases are someone under the age of 19 and someone in their nineties who are linked to the health-care worker in their fifties who travelled to Quebec for personal reasons.

New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs said there are rules in place and they must be followed and now because of "one irresponsible individual" a number of patients at the Campbellton Hospital might have been exposed. "We know we'll see more cases connected to this," said Higgs, who says the person was not "forthcoming about their reasons for travel upon returning to New Brunswick."

Dr. Russell said to slow the spread of COVID-19 Zone 5 (the Campbellton region), she is immediately restoring the restrictions that were removed last week -- but only in Zone 5. That means that all businesses that reopened last week and all activities that became permissible must close or stop as the area returns to the so-called "orange level" -- or the first phase of the removal of pandemic restrictions.

New Brunswick is taking it dead serious



I thought Brunswick made bowling pins.



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World update. Main take away, graph just keeps getting longer.

The world keeps drifting upwards, slowly but no signs of stopping.
Europe and the USA switched places a while ago, both still going down.
The current gap is 204K cases between USA and Europe, down from 239K one week ago, 266K 2 weeks ago. USA is slowly catching up.
Reported deaths still have a bigger gap (percentage wise) 171K vs 102K. The USA passed 100K deaths yesterday.

The continents

North America has been outpacing Europe for a while and has become the leader in total cases today.
1.953M in North America vs 1.950M in Europe. North America can hit 2 million in 2 more days, Europe in 3 or maybe 4.
South America has the lead in daily reported cases
Asia passed the 1 million total cases yesterday, Oceania is below 10 cases a day.

3 day average reported cases in total: 96.2K (104.7% change week over week)
South America: 29.2K (30.4%)
North America: 25.1K (26.1%)
Asia: 21.9K (22.8%)
Europe: 15.6K (16.2%)
Africa: 4.3K (4.5%)
Oceania: 8 cases.

Different strategies

India added, steady growth.
The USA is still on top, Brazil is closing in.
Iran is slowing down again as well as Canada.
Japan has a slight uptick, same as South Korea.
Australia still sitting pretty below 10 cases a day.
China at the bottom, from what they tell us anyway.

Week over week changes

Despite the big spike in Brazil today, it's actually a smaller spike than a week ago (for now), growth is slowing down week over week.
India currently has the highest week over week change, 127% (doubling time of 20.5 days)
Iran peaked again, just dropped below the 100% week over week.
The USA and Canada are virtually tied at 92.2% (halving time of 60 days, not good enough)
Japan is doing the dance, little bit up, little bit down, mostly down.

A vaccine is likely the only way out of this. One gets it under control, next country gets big, etc.



Brazil numbers are such a question mark for me, already top 2 in cases while being one of the countries with less tests in the top 20. All this while having around 210(?) million people. I sure hope it's actually them containing it well but after listening to bolsonaro and having 3 different health ministers in short time feels like their numbers are not even close to reality.



SpokenTruth said:
SvennoJ said:

World update. Main take away, graph just keeps getting longer.

Now you see why I shortened mine. lol.

Yep, apologies to those trying to view the graphs on a phone :)

How naive we were at the start, 2 months lock down seemed excessive. It should be contained in 4 weeks tops. All those flatten the curve graphs with a nice symmetrical hump at the start.

Nope, not happening that way. (except New Zealand and Australia, they actually pulled it off)



A small number of countries got lucky in minimising cases and deaths because they were able to take early preventative action to eliminate the virus. In the majority of countries the virus was widespread and governments denial and inaction contributed towards growing numbers of cases and deaths. 

Last edited by Phoenix20 - on 28 May 2020

SvennoJ said:
SpokenTruth said:

Now you see why I shortened mine. lol.

Yep, apologies to those trying to view the graphs on a phone :)

How naive we were at the start, 2 months lock down seemed excessive. It should be contained in 4 weeks tops. All those flatten the curve graphs with a nice symmetrical hump at the start.

Nope, not happening that way. (except New Zealand and Australia, they actually pulled it off)

Things aren't settled yet, and we oughtn't discuss them as though they are... but...

Haven't we mostly managed to do what was asked, and exemplified by that graph? Haven't we "flattened the curve" via our protective measures? Seems to me like people act now as though the mission was originally "stop the virus cold in its tracks" or something, but it wasn't. It was acknowledged early on, to the best of my recollection, that the genie was out of the lamp, and that we could only mitigate the spread -- draw it out over time, precisely so that we could avoid crossing that dotted blue line. Because we were all afraid of the nightmare scenario of our hospitals being completely overrun, people who needed ventilators and couldn't get them, people with other emergencies being denied basic access, etc. None of that has happened (yet). Well, that's why we locked down, not to eliminate the virus or its spread.

I don't know who was imagining that the virus would just up and go away (outside of Trump), but that was never on the table: it was not possible, and it won't be possible unless and until we have an effective vaccine.