Big post incoming, I read through the detailed report on the USA, here are the highlights.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-21-COVID19-Report-23.pdf


They adjusted their models to all the current data available and for the first time tried to find a correlation between population density and attack rates.


It's a crude comparison, based on state population density.

We find that the starting reproduction number is associated with population density and the chronological date of epi-demiconset. These two relationships suggest two dimensions which may influence the starting reproduction number and underscore the variability between states. We are cautious to draw any causal relationships from these associations; our results highlight that more additional studies of these factors are need at finer spatial scales.


The current situation in the states can be summed up into where the virus is now under control and where it is still growing


Purple means 100% chance Rt is still above one, growth. Drak green Rt certain under 1.0, control.


A more detailed look into the big 5

On the left, projected deaths in blue, reported deaths in the brown bars
In the middle, projected infections in blue, reported cases in brown bars. (many more missed cases in the beginning, still many missed)
On the right the estimated reproduction number Rt showing the effect of measures taken.

The decline is slowing down, heading back to growth now things are opening up again which also shows in my data which currently has the USA sitting at a 3 day avg week over week change of 97.2%. Still slight decline, but that has been shrinking since May 10th where it bottomed at 82.5% week over week decline.


The estimated percentage of infected people for all states on May 17th

New york has the highest rate of infection at an estimated 16.6% of the population infected. Still far short of herd immunity and could still get 4 times as bad.


They also estimated the number of infectious people in each state (currently spreading the virus)

Illinois is currently thought to have the most infectious people walking around.
1.3 million people currently able to spread sars-cov-2 in the USA.


And finally they discuss projections for the future, the effect of re-openings and relaxing restrictions

Even at constant mobility (keeping things as is right nw) can already cause a second wave.
Going back to normal will certainly escalate things again by the end of June.

They note, however, that these are pessimistic projections. The 20% and 40% return of mobility do not take any ongoing measures (mask wearing, keeping distance, frequent hand washing, adjusted workplaces) into account. The problem is that the situation as it is now already is hardly under control.

More details in here
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-21-COVID19-Report-23.pdf

Unless government "prints" so much money that the money becomes worthless then we can be like Germany pre WW2.  Not going to happen anytime soon but debt is accelerating at an alarming pace.  We had annual deficits around half a trillion when Obama left then that deficit blew up with tax cuts to rich and corporations and increased military spending.  Now we are pushing 1 trillion annual not including all the recent legislation for corona virus.  I believe this year USA will be at 4-5 trillion added debt in just one year.

Shitty economy and finances make it harder to live. An conversation about reopening safety is ine we should be having. We cant be closed until a vaccine. 

You can stay closed until numbers drop enough to open up safely, as many countries have shown. Some countries opted to open up again before numbers were decreasing, gaining them justified criticism, because opening up will basically cancel out everything they gained from the lockdown, essentially taking an economic hit for nothing while still having high deaths.

Some updates about Germany:

Less than 1000 people in ICUs
Testing capacity has increased but not by a whole lot. 425k tests conducted during the past week. Only 1.7% turned out to be positive.
6 out of 16 federal states have less than 10 cases a day (5 out of those have less than 5 cases a day). City state Bremen is the worst performing state as of late on a per capita basis. (over 3 times worse than the next state, Bavaria).
R0 is estimated to be about 0.85.

Yep, Germany is doing well.

On a weekly average Germany is down to 624 reported cases per day and 59 deaths per day.
The 3 day average decline currently is 80.8% week over week, or 0.970x per day, halving time of just over 3 weeks.
It went up a bit though this week, week over week decline was at 69% last Friday and bottomed at 57% on May 2nd.

Comparing estimates for how many infected there should still be based on deaths:
0.7% IFR at 59 deaths per day -> 8,400 cases per day 15 days ago.
The reported cases went down 31% compared to 15 days ago, thus about 5,800 newly infected today (almost 10 times more than detected)

Of course IFR for Germany could be higher or maybe even lower but it seems reasonable coming out at 9.3x more infections than detected.
(Some countries that number will be a lot higher, yet Germany is doing a great job at testing)

Took the covid antibody shot today and my arm feels so weird.

That's just the shot working against your body. It's why they're called anti-body.

Shot? I thought you said you were getting an anti body test.

Are you in a clinical trial?

A good 5 minute-segment.