| Barozi said: Some updates about Germany: Less than 1000 people in ICUs Testing capacity has increased but not by a whole lot. 425k tests conducted during the past week. Only 1.7% turned out to be positive. 6 out of 16 federal states have less than 10 cases a day (5 out of those have less than 5 cases a day). City state Bremen is the worst performing state as of late on a per capita basis. (over 3 times worse than the next state, Bavaria). R0 is estimated to be about 0.85. |
Yep, Germany is doing well.
On a weekly average Germany is down to 624 reported cases per day and 59 deaths per day.
The 3 day average decline currently is 80.8% week over week, or 0.970x per day, halving time of just over 3 weeks.
It went up a bit though this week, week over week decline was at 69% last Friday and bottomed at 57% on May 2nd.
Comparing estimates for how many infected there should still be based on deaths:
0.7% IFR at 59 deaths per day -> 8,400 cases per day 15 days ago.
The reported cases went down 31% compared to 15 days ago, thus about 5,800 newly infected today (almost 10 times more than detected)
Of course IFR for Germany could be higher or maybe even lower but it seems reasonable coming out at 9.3x more infections than detected.
(Some countries that number will be a lot higher, yet Germany is doing a great job at testing)
