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SvennoJ on 22 May 2020
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Big post incoming, I read through the detailed report on the USA, here are the highlights.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-21-COVID19-Report-23.pdf


They adjusted their models to all the current data available and for the first time tried to find a correlation between population density and attack rates.


It's a crude comparison, based on state population density.

We find that the starting reproduction number is associated with population density and the chronological date of epi-demiconset. These two relationships suggest two dimensions which may influence the starting reproduction number and underscore the variability between states. We are cautious to draw any causal relationships from these associations; our results highlight that more additional studies of these factors are need at finer spatial scales.


The current situation in the states can be summed up into where the virus is now under control and where it is still growing


Purple means 100% chance Rt is still above one, growth. Drak green Rt certain under 1.0, control.


A more detailed look into the big 5

On the left, projected deaths in blue, reported deaths in the brown bars
In the middle, projected infections in blue, reported cases in brown bars. (many more missed cases in the beginning, still many missed)
On the right the estimated reproduction number Rt showing the effect of measures taken.

The decline is slowing down, heading back to growth now things are opening up again which also shows in my data which currently has the USA sitting at a 3 day avg week over week change of 97.2%. Still slight decline, but that has been shrinking since May 10th where it bottomed at 82.5% week over week decline.


The estimated percentage of infected people for all states on May 17th

New york has the highest rate of infection at an estimated 16.6% of the population infected. Still far short of herd immunity and could still get 4 times as bad.


They also estimated the number of infectious people in each state (currently spreading the virus)

Illinois is currently thought to have the most infectious people walking around.
1.3 million people currently able to spread sars-cov-2 in the USA.


And finally they discuss projections for the future, the effect of re-openings and relaxing restrictions

Even at constant mobility (keeping things as is right nw) can already cause a second wave.
Going back to normal will certainly escalate things again by the end of June.

They note, however, that these are pessimistic projections. The 20% and 40% return of mobility do not take any ongoing measures (mask wearing, keeping distance, frequent hand washing, adjusted workplaces) into account. The problem is that the situation as it is now already is hardly under control.

More details in here
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-21-COVID19-Report-23.pdf