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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

SpokenTruth said:
Pemalite said:
Today we had our first positive case in a few weeks, which is a bit of a setback.
The individual traveled overseas several months ago and got back into the country before lockdown measures got put in place and always stayed in confinement.

So it is a little disconcerting that an individual can show symptoms several months after the fact, but it is what it is.

I think the Government will hold off on easing restrictions because of it for the immediate future.

That's a long time for symptoms to develop and I thought they were saying that it doesn't have a dormant state.

Any chance they lived in a tight quarters apartment?  Picked it up from a visitor (food/groceries delivery)?

They came back from overseas months ago before we went into lockdown, the only interactions they have had was with about 5 other family members. - Not sure if they have tested positive yet, might find out in a day or two... But I would assume contact tracing is in full swing.

Delivery items have been a focal point for awhile, mostly because we had a hot-spot appear with airport workers who handled luggage a month ago, so there has been allot of work on that front with disinfecting and so on.

Today I got asked to make sure I have all my vaccines and got given a PPE pack, they are preparing for a "second wave" after lockdown measures have been lifted, us firefighters will be required to man the hospital and the Ambulances as our medical training was deemed "sufficient", whilst maintaining operational readiness for all other response areas like fire, hazmat, road crash and so forth.

They are just preparing for the worst ahead of time, rather than let everything go to shit at the last minute.

Rab said:
Pyro as Bill said:

But Australia has the same far right nationalist extremist as head of state and they're doing OK.

Hardly a far right or far left nationalist extremist, Australia has never seen a leader like that, mainstream political parties in Australia including their leaders are quite moderate, and have been for a very long time  

Our leader is certainly a far-right conservative, he thumps the biblical message often, was against same-sex marriage and more, but he has an entire political (Liberal) party he needs to "keep happy" and they are made of all sorts of individuals with various political leanings.

Our leader before this one who was the leader of the Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull was allot more moderate with some left-leaning ideologies... And essentially the far-right conservatives in the party booted him out because he wasn't willing to do everything they demanded.

The reason for the proactive action by our far-right conservative leader was also because he desperately needed to fix his image problem, the last national crisis that occurred... Just in December/January he decided to fuck off on a Holiday overseas... And simply sent "thoughts and prayers" to those affected while the entire country burned.

So it was a political necessity for him to take affirmative action and get in front of the COVID issue, his election actually hinges on it.

But yes, he is a far-right conservative in charge of a moderate right-wing party which has a smaller "group" of extreme far-right nationalists.

In saying that, the USA is a little different to the rest of the world, their entire political spectrum is a step over to the right anyway... And often our terminologies don't align to theirs... I.E. What party "liberal" refers to. - Then again, the USA see's fit to use Imperial and not Metric systems... But let's not judge them for everything... :P

Rab said:
Pyro as Bill said:

I was just pointing out that Australia and the UK have the same head of state.

If vivster thinks she's a far right nationalist extremist, you'll have to take that up with him.

Oh you meant the Queen, she is a token from a bygone era, once she passes on, Australia will cut the last ties to Empire and watch the last vestiges of Royalty sink below the waves  

She doesn't really enact any control over Australia anyway, basically we are left to our own devices.
I think if the UK started to interfere with our policies and politics that Australia would take a step back.
But I agree, I think once the beloved Queen passes, Australia will cut ties and become more Americanized with a "presidential" system.


Last edited by Pemalite - on 07 May 2020

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Pyro as Bill said:
SvennoJ said:

After reading that link I'm pretty confident it can be enough to get it down to 1

The ONS suggested some of the risk might be caused by other social and economic factors that are not included in the data. And it said that some ethnic groups may be "over-represented in public-facing occupations" and so more at risk of being infected while at work. The ONS plans to examine the link between coronavirus risk and occupation.

Not adjusted yet, taking some factors into account is not the same as adjusting for the different rate of spread in different neighborhoods.

Accounting for rough measures of health and wealth changes it a little, bringing the risk down to just under twice as likely. But the analysis doesn't address the impact of exposure at work or current health conditions. Helen Barnard, acting director of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, said workers from black, Asian and minority ethnic backgrounds were also more likely to live in overcrowded homes, increasing the risk of the virus spreading to their families.

She said that the UK entered the crisis with "a rising tide of low pay, insecure jobs and spiralling living costs" and "we must ask ourselves what kind of society we want to live in after the virus passes". A Department of Health and Social Care spokeswoman said it had commissioned Public Health England to examine different factors such as ethnicity, obesity and geographical location that may influence the effect of the virus. "It is critical we find out which groups are most at risk so we can take the right steps to protect them and minimise their risk," she said.


They come the the right conclusion.


What matters is where is it spreading the most. Two factors are at play amplifying each other. The virus has a higher attack rate in lower income areas due to more crowded living conditions and more public-facing occupations fueling the spread, and lower income is generally linked to lower health/immunity making the effects worse.

Household composition was taken into account. Co-morbidities were partially taken into account. They used data from 2011 so more recent health issues wouldn't be counted until 2021.

"To ensure that a broad range of factors were taken into account, we also adjusted for region, rural and urban classification, area deprivation, household composition, socio-economic position, highest qualification held, household tenure, and health or disability in the 2011 Census (Panel B). Therefore, the fully adjusted results show differences in risk between ethnic groups that are specific to those ethnic groups and are not caused by any of the factors listed on which members of the groups might differ."

So why all the stuff I bolded if they already compensated for all that?

Research by the Health Foundation found that in London, while black and Asian workers made up 34% of the overall working population, they represented 54% of workers in food retail, 48% of health and social care staff, and 44% of people working in transport.

Occupation is a big factor, but also social patterns. It's good to investigate to figure out the best strategies for different areas, living conditions and occupations, however it's not as simple as Italians die more than Chinese and blacks die more than whites.



https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30922-3/fulltext

The role of language played a part in Sweden where the government at first only addressed Somali immigrants in Swedish, as well as other cultural factors.
https://www.hstoday.us/subject-matter-areas/counterterrorism/when-religion-and-culture-kill-covid-19-in-the-somali-diaspora-communities-in-sweden/

In Sweden there is a small diaspora community of Somali immigrants who fled war and poverty who make up just .69 percent of the total population.[1] Normally, this diaspora group fades into the background, but now, suddenly, a chilling new statistic brings them to the fore, as 40 percent of the reported COVID-19 related deaths occurring in Stockholm involve the Somali diaspora communities. Other Swedish medical experts estimate 18 percent of the COVID-19 deaths country-wide are from the Somali community.[2]

The huge disparity in Sweden proves there is a lot more going on than skin color.



SpokenTruth said:
SvennoJ said:

I've been sifting through the available data and that 4.5 day doubling rate is the fastest I could find based on reported deaths, before measures were in effect, based on available mobility data. It takes on average 20 days to die from covid 19, so any deaths reported up to 25 days after mobility trends change can still be regarded as a result of unhampered growth. Russia's mobility data didn't change until the start of April where a sharp drop occurs, thus any reported deaths until about April 25th can still be considered as part of the 'normal' progression stage.

But yeah, it's hard to guess since population density, living and work conditions play a major role. It will spread fastest in city centers and low income neighborhoods while progressing slower in the suburbs and much slower in rural communities.

See that latest study of the Imperial college, they take a lot of factors into account
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-04-COVID19-Report-20.pdf
The more precise the narrower or more specific the results are for each subdivision.

It's a definite problem for any herd immunity strategies. It may reach saturation point in a city center, yet the suburbs will still progress and can still infect the remaining non immune people in the city centers. It's why vaccination only works if you do it evenly on a mass scale. On the flip side, you likely also need less immunity in rural areas to reach local herd immunity, but it will take a lot longer to reach that point the natural way.

Fine tuning social distancing based on location would have the same effect. More restrictions inside cities, less in rural areas to keep the spread under the 1.0x factor.

I think John was asking more about infection itself rather than deaths.

I'm just using reported deaths as a more reliable indicator of possible rates of infection. The amount of tests, duration of tests, reliability of tests, who qualifies for testing all plays too big a part in accurately determining the rate of infection. Deaths are far more reliable as long as the same counting method is used, which usually is the case in the early stages where only hospital deaths with confirmed covid19 are counted.


More signs the virus doesn't actually spread all that fast

https://nypost.com/2020/05/07/athletes-at-world-military-games-may-have-brought-coronavirus-to-europe/

A group of French athletes who competed in Wuhan back in October fear they may have brought the coronavirus back home — meaning that the deadly bug may have been around months earlier than first reported.

The French delegation took part in the seventh edition of the World Military Games in Wuhan from Oct. 18 to 27 last year, just 20 days before the first confirmed case of coronavirus in China, the Sun reported.

A total of 402 French athletes were present, along with 10,000 others from across the globe, according to the report.

A number of the athletes returned home with symptoms including fevers and body aches — one of them saying he originally thought he’d simply contracted a cold — and none of them were tested, according to French news channel BFMTV.

Closer attention is being paid to their concerns since it emerged that Frenchman Amirouche Hammar had the coronavirus back in late December, according to the report.

The fishmonger had not traveled to Wuhan, like the two people who were assumed to be the first confirmed cases in France on Jan. 24.

Community spread as early as late December in France. Canada was there as well with 117 military athletes and now my wife and I are starting to rethink the severe pneumonia she had in late Januari / early Februari. She had strange unexplained blood clots on her medical scans, her lung function was down to 20%, her hands and sometimes whole arms were turning blue from lack of oxygen. Some nights she wasn't sure she would even wake up again the next day... She may have already survived covid19.

She's actually surprised she hasn't had a call back about that. They put her on antibiotics which didn't help much at all and it took a long long time to get better. I remember having a sore throat for a long time back then but don't remember any other possible symptoms. I generally avoid people and my wife was too sick to interact so hopefully if we had it back then, we didn't pass it on :/ We could really use one of those anti body tests....

When I enter my wife's symptoms from back then in the self assessment tool, I get this after only 2 pages

Do not leave your home. Do not go into a hospital or clinic.

you must:

  1. Stay at home unless told to leave by a doctor or nurse
  2. Tell people you’ve been in contact with
  3. Monitor your health

Bit late now...



SvennoJ said:
Pyro as Bill said:

Household composition was taken into account. Co-morbidities were partially taken into account. They used data from 2011 so more recent health issues wouldn't be counted until 2021.

"To ensure that a broad range of factors were taken into account, we also adjusted for region, rural and urban classification, area deprivation, household composition, socio-economic position, highest qualification held, household tenure, and health or disability in the 2011 Census (Panel B). Therefore, the fully adjusted results show differences in risk between ethnic groups that are specific to those ethnic groups and are not caused by any of the factors listed on which members of the groups might differ."

So why all the stuff I bolded if they already compensated for all that?

Research by the Health Foundation found that in London, while black and Asian workers made up 34% of the overall working population, they represented 54% of workers in food retail, 48% of health and social care staff, and 44% of people working in transport.

Occupation is a big factor, but also social patterns. It's good to investigate to figure out the best strategies for different areas, living conditions and occupations, however it's not as simple as Italians die more than Chinese and blacks die more than whites.

The huge disparity in Sweden proves there is a lot more going on than skin color.

The survey was done by the Office for National Statistics.

The bit you bolded is a quote from the Rowntree Foundation charity commenting on the ONS's survey.

I agree public facing roles will make a big difference but that would be expected to affect Pakistani/Bangladeshi more than Black people.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

The coronavirus subreddit is full with articles about US attempts to cover it up, botched re-openings and businesses profiting off a crisis. Such a fun country.



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Pyro as Bill said:

The survey was done by the Office for National Statistics.

The bit you bolded is a quote from the Rowntree Foundation charity commenting on the ONS's survey.

I agree public facing roles will make a big difference but that would be expected to affect Pakistani/Bangladeshi more than Black people.

There's more going on, it all adds up, social behavior plays a big role as seen in the Somali population in Sweden.

In Israel (some) white people are far more likely to die than other white people.
The ultra-orthodox are estimated to make up 12 percent of the population but are now turning up as 60 percent of the COVID-19 deaths
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-07/ultra-orthodox-jews-hit-disproportionately-hard-in-israels-coronavirus-outbreak

Even among our not all that religious population in Canada (55% total, 29% catholic, 18% protestant) Easter still had a noticeable effect on spreading covid19


Even better visible in the week over week comparison

Easter weekend caused a week over week increase in cases country wide. Behavioral patterns at work.


It's all things to consider when fine tuning social distancing and going back to work. Which occupations need more attention, which neighborhoods and communities need more social distancing measures etc. While closing parks in cities might help to encourage people to spread out more elsewhere (walk on the street instead of gathering in the parks), in smaller towns it only encourages people to get closer together in the remaining available spaces.

One size fits all strategies do not work with this pandemic. Local councils have to get involved in the planning and decision process, not just copy the province or country wide recommendations. The WHO already said way back in the beginning that all levels of government will need to work together to get through this.

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 08 May 2020

Fallen out of date with the news.

How is everyone here doing? Any tested positive?

I am lucky enough to be a keyworker so I am not feeling the lockdown, and I have always practiced social distancing in my free time so my life has been largely unchanged, really.



John2290 said:
vivster said:
The coronavirus subreddit is full with articles about US attempts to cover it up, botched re-openings and businesses profiting off a crisis. Such a fun country.

It's Chinese bots, they're all over twitter too and so obvious at what they do. The least they should do is learn English properly when they pretend to be American. 

Chinese bots are writing articles on established US publications?

Last edited by vivster - on 08 May 2020

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LurkerJ said:
Fallen out of date with the news.

How is everyone here doing? Any tested positive?

I am lucky enough to be a keyworker so I am not feeling the lockdown, and I have always practiced social distancing in my free time so my life has been largely unchanged, really.

Everything is still very much fine over here. Provided the case numbers don't increase we might be able to fully open up in June, with a few ground rules in place. People are happy and praise the administration that did a great job to contain things. How are things in your country?



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John2290 said:
vivster said:

Chinese bots are writing articles on established US publications?

Yes, indeed but I misread your post in general. I thought you meant the people whom keep saying it was Europes virus and/or the US. Yet, yes, I do believe the CCP has influence western outlets in some form or another that they protect them, mostly on the left side if the political divide.

So you think the left side of the political spectrum doesn't have enough hate towards the right that they need to fabricate stories supported by the Chinese? Dude, the whole world hates Republicans. You really don't need Chinese influence to hate what happens in the US. You just need a brain.

The problem is that the US political spectrum on the right has become so comically stupid and evil that any pointing out of their flaws sounds like Chinese propaganda. The sad truth is though that these days Chinese propaganda contains more truth than anything that comes out of the White House. And that should be the number one concern. Foreign influence couldn't even begin to imagine what kind of crazy stuff is produced by the local governments all on their own.

Last edited by vivster - on 08 May 2020

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