Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[SvennoJ]

SpokenTruth said:

SvennoJ said:

I've been sifting through the available data and that 4.5 day doubling rate is the fastest I could find based on reported deaths, before measures were in effect, based on available mobility data. It takes on average 20 days to die from covid 19, so any deaths reported up to 25 days after mobility trends change can still be regarded as a result of unhampered growth. Russia's mobility data didn't change until the start of April where a sharp drop occurs, thus any reported deaths until about April 25th can still be considered as part of the 'normal' progression stage.

But yeah, it's hard to guess since population density, living and work conditions play a major role. It will spread fastest in city centers and low income neighborhoods while progressing slower in the suburbs and much slower in rural communities.

See that latest study of the Imperial college, they take a lot of factors into account
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-04-COVID19-Report-20.pdf
The more precise the narrower or more specific the results are for each subdivision.

It's a definite problem for any herd immunity strategies. It may reach saturation point in a city center, yet the suburbs will still progress and can still infect the remaining non immune people in the city centers. It's why vaccination only works if you do it evenly on a mass scale. On the flip side, you likely also need less immunity in rural areas to reach local herd immunity, but it will take a lot longer to reach that point the natural way.

Fine tuning social distancing based on location would have the same effect. More restrictions inside cities, less in rural areas to keep the spread under the 1.0x factor.

I think John was asking more about infection itself rather than deaths.

I'm just using reported deaths as a more reliable indicator of possible rates of infection. The amount of tests, duration of tests, reliability of tests, who qualifies for testing all plays too big a part in accurately determining the rate of infection. Deaths are far more reliable as long as the same counting method is used, which usually is the case in the early stages where only hospital deaths with confirmed covid19 are counted.


More signs the virus doesn't actually spread all that fast

https://nypost.com/2020/05/07/athletes-at-world-military-games-may-have-brought-coronavirus-to-europe/

A group of French athletes who competed in Wuhan back in October fear they may have brought the coronavirus back home — meaning that the deadly bug may have been around months earlier than first reported.

The French delegation took part in the seventh edition of the World Military Games in Wuhan from Oct. 18 to 27 last year, just 20 days before the first confirmed case of coronavirus in China, the Sun reported.

A total of 402 French athletes were present, along with 10,000 others from across the globe, according to the report.

A number of the athletes returned home with symptoms including fevers and body aches — one of them saying he originally thought he’d simply contracted a cold — and none of them were tested, according to French news channel BFMTV.

Closer attention is being paid to their concerns since it emerged that Frenchman Amirouche Hammar had the coronavirus back in late December, according to the report.

The fishmonger had not traveled to Wuhan, like the two people who were assumed to be the first confirmed cases in France on Jan. 24.

Community spread as early as late December in France. Canada was there as well with 117 military athletes and now my wife and I are starting to rethink the severe pneumonia she had in late Januari / early Februari. She had strange unexplained blood clots on her medical scans, her lung function was down to 20%, her hands and sometimes whole arms were turning blue from lack of oxygen. Some nights she wasn't sure she would even wake up again the next day... She may have already survived covid19.

She's actually surprised she hasn't had a call back about that. They put her on antibiotics which didn't help much at all and it took a long long time to get better. I remember having a sore throat for a long time back then but don't remember any other possible symptoms. I generally avoid people and my wife was too sick to interact so hopefully if we had it back then, we didn't pass it on :/ We could really use one of those anti body tests....

When I enter my wife's symptoms from back then in the self assessment tool, I get this after only 2 pages

Do not leave your home. Do not go into a hospital or clinic.

you must:

1. Stay at home unless told to leave by a doctor or nurse
2. Tell people you’ve been in contact with
3. Monitor your health

Bit late now...