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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

LurkerJ on 04 May 2020

NHS moves to wind up London’s Nightingale Hospital

The BBC reports that the 4,000 bed field hospital, opened on 3 April to provide extra capacity for the capital’s health service, is currently treating just 20 patients. Once they’ve been discharged, staff and some equipment will be redistributed to other hospitals.

But in the three weeks since it was opened doubt about the project has started to creep in. The hospital designed to take 500, with capacity for 4,000, has only treated 41 patients. At a cost of many millions a week there are rumblings the Nightingale is turning into an expensive white elephant.

"We are worried a negative view of the Hospital is being allowed to develop," one senior member of the medical team at the hospital tells me."And having so few patients, when we expected to be dealing with hundreds, has not been good for our morale," they added.

Sir Simon Stevens, Head of NHS England, said: "We have not yet had to make extensive use of the Nightingale London thanks to the hard work of NHS staff – who have freed up more than 30,000 existing hospital beds .... It will count as a huge success for the whole country if we never need to use them, but with further waves of coronavirus possible it is important that we have these extra facilities in place and treating patients."



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Trumpstyle on 04 May 2020

A new study of antibody test is out for stockholm metro. 10% in stockholm metro had antibodies in easter weekend (11-12 april).

"The average sampling day in the first round of tests was Easter evening on April 11."

"This measurement shows the spread of infection around the end of March."

Source: https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.kth.se%2Faktuellt%2Fnyheter%2F10-procent-av-stockholmarna-smittade-1.980727

Swedish version: https://www.kth.se/aktuellt/nyheter/10-procent-av-stockholmarna-smittade-1.980727

From what I understand reading this 10% in stockholm metro had been infected by the end of march.

Edit: doesn't say anything how accurate the test is though.

Last edited by Trumpstyle - on 04 May 2020

6x master league achiever in starcraft2

Beaten Sigrun on God of war mode

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sethnintendo on 04 May 2020
SvennoJ said:
JRPGfan said:

In denmark something like 44% of our energy is from renewable sources, now.
We had a "2020" plan (from long ago) where our goal was to hit 50% by the end of 2020.

Norway, Sweden, Finland, Iceland are the same basically (or ahead of denmark in % of energy thats from renewable sources).

Thats a legit worry, imo.

We're down to 5% of 'polluting' energy sources, gas and other. Over 25% is from water, 10% alternative (wind mostly, solar and a little from biomass) and 60% nuclear energy. Which is carbon clean anyway, but not renewable. Since nuclear is cheaper, less money to stimulate wind and solar farms will keep us hanging on to the ageing nuclear plants. Some will still be needed for peak demand anyway. Plus we sell power to the USA

https://live.gridwatch.ca/home-page.html

Not much solar generation yet, it's only 9:30 am :)

Getting 25% of power from dams isn't something to brag too much about.  I'm sure some of those dams are on salmon and other migratory fish waterways.  Just saying they aren't as environment friendly as one might think and those fish ladders at side of dams don't really work.  Wind farms chop up birds also but when looking at grand scheme losing some fish and birds is a lot better than dumping a shit ton of oil and other toxic chemicals (used in fracking) into the environment or mountain top removal for coal.



SvennoJ on 04 May 2020
Trumpstyle said:

A new study of antibody test is out for stockholm metro. 10% in stockholm metro had antibodies in easter weekend (11-12 april).

"The average sampling day in the first round of tests was Easter evening on April 11."

"This measurement shows the spread of infection around the end of March."

Source: https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.kth.se%2Faktuellt%2Fnyheter%2F10-procent-av-stockholmarna-smittade-1.980727

Swedish version: https://www.kth.se/aktuellt/nyheter/10-procent-av-stockholmarna-smittade-1.980727

From what I understand reading this 10% in stockholm metro had been infected by the end of march.

Edit: doesn't say anything how accurate the test is though.

Of 1,000 sent samples, 550 returned. Of these, 446 test responses were approved.


Sending out samples to randomly selected people, good!
But it's not random anymore when only half the people return the sample, lot of room for bias to creep in there.
446 sample size is rather small to make any accurate statement over 1.22 million people.

The average sampling date was April 11th, not sure why they say that shows the rate of infection at the end of March. With an average incubation period of 5 days, anti bodies should already start to show not long after, plus if the average was April 11th and the results are just there now, when were the last test kits received back? How big was the time window?

Anyway, 10% at beginning of April while the growth rate since then hasn't really changed much. Comparing Sweden's reported cases to 4 weeks ago, the daily reported cases have grown 120%, or less than 1% per day, adding on average a bit over 500 cases per day for the past month. So really, any stories about reaching herd immunity in Stockholm are off the table. The reported deaths have been very slowly growing as well since the start of April, in line with the reported cases.

Sweden is doing enough to stop the growth, just not enough to get back down from the peak.




Scoobes on 04 May 2020
Pyro as Bill said:
Scoobes said:

You didn't click on the link did you.

First line:

"A five-year-old child with underlying health conditions has died after testing positive for coronavirus, NHS England has said."

and then further down:

"Earlier this week, it was announced a six-week-old baby died of Covid-19 in Connecticut, US."

Like I said, people dying while being positive doesn't mean Covid killed them.

Given the demographic breakdown of CV deaths, do you think this 5yr old died of Covid of the underlying health condition?

Underlying health conditions range from severe heart disease to completely manageable conditions such as diabetes and mild asthma.

How many 5 years olds do you think will just die of manageable conditions without the virus? Having diabetes or asthma just means certain parts of your body are more susceptible to the virus. Diabetics have weaker immune systems which means they can't fight the virus as effectively. So yes, in all likelihood, it was the virus because it's unlikely death would occur due to only the underlying health condition. 

Looking at the global demographics, 0.2% of infected people under 18 die of the virus. There are approx. 15,000,000 children in the UK. If you let everyone of them get the virus that's up to 30,000 preventable children deaths. Do you think that's acceptable?




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Trumpstyle on 04 May 2020
SvennoJ said:

Of 1,000 sent samples, 550 returned. Of these, 446 test responses were approved.


Sending out samples to randomly selected people, good!
But it's not random anymore when only half the people return the sample, lot of room for bias to creep in there.
446 sample size is rather small to make any accurate statement over 1.22 million people.

The average sampling date was April 11th, not sure why they say that shows the rate of infection at the end of March. With an average incubation period of 5 days, anti bodies should already start to show not long after, plus if the average was April 11th and the results are just there now, when were the last test kits received back? How big was the time window?

Anyway, 10% at beginning of April while the growth rate since then hasn't really changed much. Comparing Sweden's reported cases to 4 weeks ago, the daily reported cases have grown 120%, or less than 1% per day, adding on average a bit over 500 cases per day for the past month. So really, any stories about reaching herd immunity in Stockholm are off the table. The reported deaths have been very slowly growing as well since the start of April, in line with the reported cases.

Sweden is doing enough to stop the growth, just not enough to get back down from the peak.

But our confirmed cases is now steady even with increased testing, same with our daily reported dead, it's stable or in a slight decline. This can only mean that about 25-30% of stockholm must be immune otherwise it would just keep increasing and increasing.

As for getting down from the peak, that is not the goal from what I know. Our virus dude (Anders Tegnell) said he aims to hover around R1, this could mean slightly higher or slightly below. I'm hoping he will increase the R number as you can't ask the vulnerable people to remain isolated forever, maybe 2-4 month and they will stop isolate themself.



6x master league achiever in starcraft2

Beaten Sigrun on God of war mode

Beaten DOOM ultra-nightmare with NO endless ammo-rune, 2x super shotgun and no decoys on ps4 pro.

1-0 against Grubby in Wc3 frozen throne ladder!!

forest-spirit on 04 May 2020
SvennoJ said:
Trumpstyle said:

A new study of antibody test is out for stockholm metro. 10% in stockholm metro had antibodies in easter weekend (11-12 april).

"The average sampling day in the first round of tests was Easter evening on April 11."

"This measurement shows the spread of infection around the end of March."

Source: https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.kth.se%2Faktuellt%2Fnyheter%2F10-procent-av-stockholmarna-smittade-1.980727

Swedish version: https://www.kth.se/aktuellt/nyheter/10-procent-av-stockholmarna-smittade-1.980727

From what I understand reading this 10% in stockholm metro had been infected by the end of march.

Edit: doesn't say anything how accurate the test is though.

Of 1,000 sent samples, 550 returned. Of these, 446 test responses were approved.


Sending out samples to randomly selected people, good!
But it's not random anymore when only half the people return the sample, lot of room for bias to creep in there.
446 sample size is rather small to make any accurate statement over 1.22 million people.

The average sampling date was April 11th, not sure why they say that shows the rate of infection at the end of March. With an average incubation period of 5 days, anti bodies should already start to show not long after, plus if the average was April 11th and the results are just there now, when were the last test kits received back? How big was the time window?

Anyway, 10% at beginning of April while the growth rate since then hasn't really changed much. Comparing Sweden's reported cases to 4 weeks ago, the daily reported cases have grown 120%, or less than 1% per day, adding on average a bit over 500 cases per day for the past month. So really, any stories about reaching herd immunity in Stockholm are off the table. The reported deaths have been very slowly growing as well since the start of April, in line with the reported cases.

Sweden is doing enough to stop the growth, just not enough to get back down from the peak.

That test was just the first step in a bigger study. Another 1000 samples were recently sent out to verify the data from the first batch and to get a picture of how the virus has spread since then. In other words, that study probably shouldn't be used to draw any conclusions until it's actually completed (and deemed accurate enough of course).



Conina on 04 May 2020
Trumpstyle said:
SvennoJ said:

Anyway, 10% at beginning of April while the growth rate since then hasn't really changed much. Comparing Sweden's reported cases to 4 weeks ago, the daily reported cases have grown 120%, or less than 1% per day, adding on average a bit over 500 cases per day for the past month. So really, any stories about reaching herd immunity in Stockholm are off the table. The reported deaths have been very slowly growing as well since the start of April, in line with the reported cases.

Sweden is doing enough to stop the growth, just not enough to get back down from the peak.

But our confirmed cases is now steady even with increased testing, same with our daily reported dead, it's stable or in a slight decline. This can only mean that about 25-30% of stockholm must be immune otherwise it would just keep increasing and increasing.

Jumping to conclusions again?



Pyro as Bill on 04 May 2020
SvennoJ said:

Of 1,000 sent samples, 550 returned. Of these, 446 test responses were approved.


Sending out samples to randomly selected people, good!
But it's not random anymore when only half the people return the sample, lot of room for bias to creep in there.
446 sample size is rather small to make any accurate statement over 1.22 million people.

The average sampling date was April 11th, not sure why they say that shows the rate of infection at the end of March. With an average incubation period of 5 days, anti bodies should already start to show not long after, plus if the average was April 11th and the results are just there now, when were the last test kits received back? How big was the time window?

Anyway, 10% at beginning of April while the growth rate since then hasn't really changed much. Comparing Sweden's reported cases to 4 weeks ago, the daily reported cases have grown 120%, or less than 1% per day, adding on average a bit over 500 cases per day for the past month. So really, any stories about reaching herd immunity in Stockholm are off the table. The reported deaths have been very slowly growing as well since the start of April, in line with the reported cases.

Sweden is doing enough to stop the growth, just not enough to get back down from the peak.

The antibody test doesn't become 90%+ accurate until 21 days after symptoms.

Scoobes said:
Pyro as Bill said:

Like I said, people dying while being positive doesn't mean Covid killed them.

Given the demographic breakdown of CV deaths, do you think this 5yr old died of Covid of the underlying health condition?

Underlying health conditions range from severe heart disease to completely manageable conditions such as diabetes and mild asthma.

How many 5 years olds do you think will just die of manageable conditions without the virus? Having diabetes or asthma just means certain parts of your body are more susceptible to the virus. Diabetics have weaker immune systems which means they can't fight the virus as effectively. So yes, in all likelihood, it was the virus because it's unlikely death would occur due to only the underlying health condition. 

Looking at the global demographics, 0.2% of infected people under 18 die of the virus. There are approx. 15,000,000 children in the UK. If you let everyone of them get the virus that's up to 30,000 preventable children deaths. Do you think that's acceptable?

I think your 0.2% CFR number for under 18s is bullshit.

100,000+ people infected in Stockholm at the end of March. How many under 18s had died there a month ago?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/

Last edited by Pyro as Bill - on 04 May 2020

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Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

sethnintendo on 04 May 2020

All that hype about nanobots in medical field yet I haven't heard a peep from the field recently.

Elon Musk should use his money from his home sales to fund nano research. He has two homes up for sale totaling 39.5 million. That would be a good start.

He can then hold a big parade and release them from floats onto the masses like the Cowboy Bebop movie.

I'm surprised trump hasn't mentioned it.