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forest-spirit on 04 May 2020
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SvennoJ said:
Trumpstyle said:

A new study of antibody test is out for stockholm metro. 10% in stockholm metro had antibodies in easter weekend (11-12 april).

"The average sampling day in the first round of tests was Easter evening on April 11."

"This measurement shows the spread of infection around the end of March."

Source: https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.kth.se%2Faktuellt%2Fnyheter%2F10-procent-av-stockholmarna-smittade-1.980727

Swedish version: https://www.kth.se/aktuellt/nyheter/10-procent-av-stockholmarna-smittade-1.980727

From what I understand reading this 10% in stockholm metro had been infected by the end of march.

Edit: doesn't say anything how accurate the test is though.

Of 1,000 sent samples, 550 returned. Of these, 446 test responses were approved.


Sending out samples to randomly selected people, good!
But it's not random anymore when only half the people return the sample, lot of room for bias to creep in there.
446 sample size is rather small to make any accurate statement over 1.22 million people.

The average sampling date was April 11th, not sure why they say that shows the rate of infection at the end of March. With an average incubation period of 5 days, anti bodies should already start to show not long after, plus if the average was April 11th and the results are just there now, when were the last test kits received back? How big was the time window?

Anyway, 10% at beginning of April while the growth rate since then hasn't really changed much. Comparing Sweden's reported cases to 4 weeks ago, the daily reported cases have grown 120%, or less than 1% per day, adding on average a bit over 500 cases per day for the past month. So really, any stories about reaching herd immunity in Stockholm are off the table. The reported deaths have been very slowly growing as well since the start of April, in line with the reported cases.

Sweden is doing enough to stop the growth, just not enough to get back down from the peak.

That test was just the first step in a bigger study. Another 1000 samples were recently sent out to verify the data from the first batch and to get a picture of how the virus has spread since then. In other words, that study probably shouldn't be used to draw any conclusions until it's actually completed (and deemed accurate enough of course).