Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[Pyro as Bill]

SvennoJ said:

Of 1,000 sent samples, 550 returned. Of these, 446 test responses were approved.


Sending out samples to randomly selected people, good!
But it's not random anymore when only half the people return the sample, lot of room for bias to creep in there.
446 sample size is rather small to make any accurate statement over 1.22 million people.

The average sampling date was April 11th, not sure why they say that shows the rate of infection at the end of March. With an average incubation period of 5 days, anti bodies should already start to show not long after, plus if the average was April 11th and the results are just there now, when were the last test kits received back? How big was the time window?

Anyway, 10% at beginning of April while the growth rate since then hasn't really changed much. Comparing Sweden's reported cases to 4 weeks ago, the daily reported cases have grown 120%, or less than 1% per day, adding on average a bit over 500 cases per day for the past month. So really, any stories about reaching herd immunity in Stockholm are off the table. The reported deaths have been very slowly growing as well since the start of April, in line with the reported cases.

Sweden is doing enough to stop the growth, just not enough to get back down from the peak.

The antibody test doesn't become 90%+ accurate until 21 days after symptoms.

Scoobes said:

Pyro as Bill said:

Like I said, people dying while being positive doesn't mean Covid killed them.

Given the demographic breakdown of CV deaths, do you think this 5yr old died of Covid of the underlying health condition?

Underlying health conditions range from severe heart disease to completely manageable conditions such as diabetes and mild asthma.

How many 5 years olds do you think will just die of manageable conditions without the virus? Having diabetes or asthma just means certain parts of your body are more susceptible to the virus. Diabetics have weaker immune systems which means they can't fight the virus as effectively. So yes, in all likelihood, it was the virus because it's unlikely death would occur due to only the underlying health condition. 

Looking at the global demographics, 0.2% of infected people under 18 die of the virus. There are approx. 15,000,000 children in the UK. If you let everyone of them get the virus that's up to 30,000 preventable children deaths. Do you think that's acceptable?

I think your 0.2% CFR number for under 18s is bullshit.

100,000+ people infected in Stockholm at the end of March. How many under 18s had died there a month ago?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/

Last edited by Pyro as Bill - on 04 May 2020