When will the switch outsell the ps4? | |||
| Second half of 2022 | 33 | 11.54% | |
| First half of 2023 | 24 | 8.39% | |
| Second half of 2023 | 35 | 12.24% | |
| First half of 2024 | 15 | 5.24% | |
| Second half of 2024 | 16 | 5.59% | |
| First half of 2025 | 7 | 2.45% | |
| Second half of 2025 | 5 | 1.75% | |
| Later than above | 2 | 0.70% | |
| Never | 149 | 52.10% | |
| Total: | 286 | ||
Nu-13 said:
Do you mind sharing how much you think the switch will sell each year from now? |
FY2020 (current one) : 21,13
FY2021 : 20,3
FY2022 : 15,5
FY2023 : 9,8
It is my pessimistic scenario where the "Switch Pro" only adds superficial feature without increasing significantly the power of the console to receive more 3rd party support.
Considering how early Nintendo tends to abandon their consoles it probably won't ever happen.
The average lifespan of a Nintendo console is 5-6 years. For Playstation consoles the lifespan is 6-7 years.
I think Switch will scrape to 100m and the peter out, PS4 will end at 125m or so
Amnesia said:
FY2020 (current one) : 21,13 FY2021 : 20,3 FY2022 : 15,5 FY2023 : 9,8 It is my pessimistic scenario where the "Switch Pro" only adds superficial feature without increasing significantly the power of the console to receive more 3rd party support.
|
A hardware revision doesn't change third party support.
2nd half of 2022 at most. PS4 will be done at 120m at most
Watching the events of the cosmos unfold in tears and solitude
It's going to be hard, but I'm not going to doubt it.
It will depend on how long Nintendo will support it.
| nier1993 said: Ps4 was 199$ for like 2 days during the holidays before being sold out. Switch is 199$ since September. |
Factually wrong. The switch has always been $299. A hardware revision with the most important feature stripped away released last september for $199 and sells much less than the $299 model. That should tell you everything.
| ironmanDX said: Agreed. I don't think it will have the legs either. I don't see it selling another 70ish million in 4 years. The real question is... Will it be the highest gen 9 console? I think it will. |
I expect Switch to sell in the same range as PS4, so for PS5 basically depend if it will sell as good as the predecessor.
It'll depend from many things, but i think it's gonna be very hard, Nintendo and Microsoft fucked up in every way possible last gen, this time both will be more competitive.
Shadow1980 said:
For me it's this: Gen 8: Wii U, PS4, XBO, Switch The NPD Group defines the Switch as "current-gen," and since Nintendo tacitly approves of this, I consider it official. Ergo the Switch is Gen 8. Re: The OP's question. I don't think the Switch will outsell the PS4. The PS4 is on track to sell 120M lifetime at this rate. That's a tall order for the Switch. Considering it's at or near its peak, I doubt it will have the legs to sell another 70M. I see it selling at most around 100M units, well short of what the PS4 will likely end up at. |
If this Switch 2 belongs too the 9th for you, this means that Nintendo kills the current Switch, at best this Switch 2 can be retro compatible but it will be a really different machine with specific games not usable on the current Switch/Lite
Q4 2022
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