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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

 

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 33 11.54%
 
First half of 2023 24 8.39%
 
Second half of 2023 35 12.24%
 
First half of 2024 15 5.24%
 
Second half of 2024 16 5.59%
 
First half of 2025 7 2.45%
 
Second half of 2025 5 1.75%
 
Later than above 2 0.70%
 
Never 149 52.10%
 
Total:286
curl-6 on 21 January 2021
Louie said:
curl-6 said:

No, just the same old song and dance we've been hearing since 2017. Comparing the Switch to the Wii is especially foolish now that the two are so clearly completely different in terms of their circumstances and sales trajectory.

More like 2002. It's been the same song and dance since I created my VGChartz account in 2007. It's a perpetual cycle where the same arguments are being repeated again and again.

Nintendo console sells bad (GC, Wii U): "Nintendo consoles don't sell. Nintendo should go 3rd party."

Nintendo console sells good or great but not as well as Sony's console (Wii in its later stages, 3DS, Switch at first): "Sony consoles always outsell Nintendo consoles. Wii / DS don't count. Nintendo does not have the third party support to achieve high sales. They lack AAA western third party games."

Nintendo console flat out smashes sales records and leaves the competition in the dust for a brief period of time (Wii, Switch before the 2020 sales explosion): "Sales are going to fall off a cliff! Nintendo consoles can't sell well for a prolonged period of time. Nintendo consoles only sell because of a gimmick, the novelty will wear off soon. The console is not powerful enough to sell well for more than a few years."

Nintendo console doesn't stop smashing sales records (DS, Switch): "It doesn't count! Only Nintendo games sell on Nintendo consoles, so it still doesn't count. Handhelds don't count, they always sell well (*), we should focus on the home console market."

(*) This argument died with the Switch because with the Switch the narrative turned into "handheld gaming is dead".

Of course, third party games sell great on the Switch and sold great on Wii and DS, so the last point turns into a heated debate as this is the last resort. It truly is a never-ending cycle where no matter what Nintendo does, or how well a Nintendo console sells, there's always the same arguments against them. And this has been the case since the Gamecube days when Internet forums become more and more popular.

Pretty much.

To this day there are still people in salty denial that the Wii beat the PS3 and 360 and won the 7th generation that they make up ridiculous revisionist history and mental gymnastics to try to claim that Wii magically doesn't count. 

Last edited by curl-6 - on 21 January 2021

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deerox on 02 March 2021

Is there anyone here who still believe that the Switch can't outsell the PS4?



miqdadi on 02 March 2021

It's on the way to achieve it, I have to admit I didn't see it happening thinking Sony will release a cheap PS4 like they always do and Sony's playstation brand is popular in more places than just the three major markets



LGBTDBZBBQ on 02 March 2021
deerox said:

Is there anyone here who still believe that the Switch can't outsell the PS4?

Some are hoping Wii like catastrophic final 2 years for the rest of Nintendo Switch but deep inside everyone already know that it's just a hopeless thinking.



The_Liquid_Laser on 02 March 2021
LGBTDBZBBQ said:
deerox said:

Is there anyone here who still believe that the Switch can't outsell the PS4?

Some are hoping Wii like catastrophic final 2 years for the rest of Nintendo Switch but deep inside everyone already know that it's just a hopeless thinking.

Heh, someone bumped up a thread a little while ago showing the Wii's software lineup in 2011.  It was total crap and the Wii still sold over 11m that year.  For Switch, we just got a Direct + Pokemon Direct that shows this year's software is going to blow away the Wii's software from its final years.  And we mostly just know software from the first half of the year so far.

As you said, it's basically wishful thinking (or hopeless thinking).  A sales plummet doesn't just magically happen.  If the software is no good, then the sales plummet.  If the software is good then the system keeps selling.  You can tell from recent software announcements that Switch is going to keep selling.  That cliff is just never going to happen.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

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eddy7eddy on 02 March 2021

Exactly same thinking, then a New Model (Like a Switchi or similar to Switch Lite with HDMI Out or even a Pro), after that a Base Model Price Cut With New Games and no Competition haha. 



curl-6 on 02 March 2021

Anyone know what the original percentage for "Never" was?
It's at 52.48% now, but I'm sure it used to be much higher and is dropping as more and more people realize it's happening.



Shiken on 02 March 2021
deerox said:

Is there anyone here who still believe that the Switch can't outsell the PS4?

No, I highly doubt it.  I do believe some people are holding on to hope that it won't though.



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Leynos on 02 March 2021
deerox said:

Is there anyone here who still believe that the Switch can't outsell the PS4?

I'm now feeling the 130 million some predicted. Also seeing how Sony is doing everything to kill PS4. It's a shoo-in to beat PS4 unless Nintendo finds a way to kill all Switch momentum.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

Metallox on 03 March 2021

A lot of people were in the understanding that the PS4 was going to have a PS2 longevity, I assume.



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first.