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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

 

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 33 11.54%
 
First half of 2023 24 8.39%
 
Second half of 2023 35 12.24%
 
First half of 2024 15 5.24%
 
Second half of 2024 16 5.59%
 
First half of 2025 7 2.45%
 
Second half of 2025 5 1.75%
 
Later than above 2 0.70%
 
Never 149 52.10%
 
Total:286
peachbuggy on 07 February 2020
colafitte said:
Wow, it seems I triggered all the nintendo fanbase here.

Dont worry guys, you will survive if someone here doesn't agree with you with a stupid Nintendo prediction...

And I dont give a shit if you dont agree with me anymore. If I am wrong all the nintendo fans will be coming at me and if I am right there will be silence and lack of any kind of recognition. There is no point in wasting any time on this...

It was a mistake, like always, posting in a Nintendo thread.

I think I am starting to not getting any fun in this forum. I'm pretty sure I will be right in what I am saying and that's it. Feel free to disagree all you want. Keep living in your own bubble forever.

I think I'm going to abandon this site forever. Not worth the effort. I wonder how those permanent bans work...

Please, dont waste any effort answering this comment, because there wont be any more replies.

Your predictions are basically your opinions and as you have proven in the past, not without merit. However, this is the internet, therefore you will have opinions/predictions differing to your own. It shouldn't be a problem if there is a healthy discussion about these opinions, after all at the end of the day, that's all they really are. Opinions. Much as some may disagree with your opinions, they are all just as worthy nonetheless. I may not always agree with your opinions but I wouldn't be foolish enough to say they are without logic. If you feel the debates have been unhealthy though, I guess my advice would be to do what you must but I feel your contributions here are meaningful.

Last edited by peachbuggy - on 07 February 2020

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TruckOSaurus on 07 February 2020
victor83fernandes said:
curl-6 said:

People said the same thing three years ago, that Switch would be too weak to sell alongside PS4 Pro and Xbox One X. By this logic, the DS shouldn't have been able to sell alongside PS3 or 360 either.

The switch is still capable against a ps4, but the ps5 will be at least 10x more powerful than a switch. PS5 will also be backwards compatible, switch isn't.

But this talk is pointless, even if the switch hits wii numbers, it still wont outsell the ps4 which will end up at 150 million. Or are you telling me the switch will sell 70 million in the next 2-3 years? I'm sure Nintendo will release a switch2 in 2-3 years.

The ps4 will have a price drop when the ps5 launches, by then ps4 will be already 115 million sold, the switch will be 60 million, switch sales will start to slow down, and so will ps4, next gen consoles will start to be the top sellers.

There is no way Nintendo could outsell the ps4, unless

1 - they drop the price of consoles

2 - they do some sales on their older games

3 - they don't release a next gen switch for at least 4 years

4 - Even if all that becomes true, its still far fetched to think it could outsell a ps4. In the end even the 3ds didn't outsell the ps3 or 360, Nintendo portables do really well in the first few years but then sales drop fast.

How will the PS4 reach 150 million consoles sold exactly? It was about 41 million consoles away at the end of 2019 and last year it sold 14.7m. The January 2020 numbers are at 20% below 2019 numbers and the release of the PS5 will definitely affect its end of year numbers.

Shipped at the end of 2019: 108.9m
Shipped at the end of 2020: 120m (about 11m, that would be only a 25% drop, it could be sharper the PS3 dropped 31% in the year PS4 was released)
Shipped at the end of 2021: 125.5m(about 5.5m, that would be a 50% drop,for reference the PS3 dropped 59% the year following the PS4's release)

The way I see it, the road to 130m is very doable but 150m is out of the question.



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DonFerrari on 07 February 2020
padib said:
victor83fernandes said:

Nintendo is not keeping the switch for another 5 years, I am 100% certain they will release a new console before then. They never had a console going for 8 years without a successor. Sales will drop fast, just like 3ds, no way the switch would be selling 13 million in 2025, no way, most people who wanted one already have it, unless they would be sold at 120 dollars in 2025.

You expect the ps4 to sell 6 million until next year? I don't know what drugs are you on, but there will be a price drop, games price drops and a thing called Christmas and blackfriday, the ps4 will sell minimum 10 million until next February, easily. And minimum 5million the year after, because of the low prices, there are a lot of poor people who cant afford 450dollars consoles + 60-70 dollars games. I know of people still using a ps3 and still waiting on the ps4 to reach 150dollars with games.

At current pace the ps4 would sell 7 million, but its a slow month, when last of us 2 releases, the ps4 sales will more than double, and then on black Friday with price drop it will triple. 7 million would be the absolute minimum sales possible, there's less than 10% chance of them selling only 7 million. Maybe if sony released the ps5 at 399dollars which is impossible, as the ssd alone costs more than 100 dollars.

Come back to me when its proven that I'm right yet again.

Sorry I don't remember you being right before. Rather I remember you typically being awefully wrong.

The Switch is a platform that is scalable, as I mentioned in my post if you bothered to read it. As such, it can go with multiple revisions for many years, and can sell also with continued momentum like something you have never really seen before in a console.

My predictions for PS4 are based off the Tools -> Hardware by Date tool on vgchartz. If you haven't used it before, I invite you to do so.

And please don't pretend that I am taking drugs, I find it offensive.

I do think you are being to optimistic with Switch numbers and conservative/pessimitisc with PS4 numbers, I do think PS4 will have a 10-20M lead over Switch at the end of both sales.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

SammyGiireal on 07 February 2020
Nu-13 said:
SammyGiireal said:
It won't, a successor will come out before it reaches the number. I estimate the Switch sells about 100-110 million units lifetime. It started 4 years too late to catch up to Sony. It will be closer between its successor and the PS5.

So what? You think sales stop after a successor?

There's no such thing as starting 4 years too late. Each system will have it's own market life.

100-110 is my estimation for the entire Switch life cycle. The PS4 won't magically stop selling either.

 



PortisheadBiscuit on 07 February 2020
colafitte said:
Wow, it seems I triggered all the nintendo fanbase here.

Dont worry guys, you will survive if someone here doesn't agree with you with a stupid Nintendo prediction...

And I dont give a shit if you dont agree with me anymore. If I am wrong all the nintendo fans will be coming at me and if I am right there will be silence and lack of any kind of recognition. There is no point in wasting any time on this...

It was a mistake, like always, posting in a Nintendo thread.

I think I am starting to not getting any fun in this forum. I'm pretty sure I will be right in what I am saying and that's it. Feel free to disagree all you want. Keep living in your own bubble forever.

I think I'm going to abandon this site forever. Not worth the effort. I wonder how those permanent bans work...

Please, dont waste any effort answering this comment, because there wont be any more replies.

Imagine being this upset/dramatic because people disagree with you

Last edited by PortisheadBiscuit - on 07 February 2020

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Ryng on 07 February 2020
HoloDust said:
Ah,...again that almost unmistakable whiff of Zero999 in this forum...

OH SHIT



Vodacixi on 07 February 2020
PortisheadBiscuit said:
colafitte said:
Wow, it seems I triggered all the nintendo fanbase here.

Dont worry guys, you will survive if someone here doesn't agree with you with a stupid Nintendo prediction...

And I dont give a shit if you dont agree with me anymore. If I am wrong all the nintendo fans will be coming at me and if I am right there will be silence and lack of any kind of recognition. There is no point in wasting any time on this...

It was a mistake, like always, posting in a Nintendo thread.

I think I am starting to not getting any fun in this forum. I'm pretty sure I will be right in what I am saying and that's it. Feel free to disagree all you want. Keep living in your own bubble forever.

I think I'm going to abandon this site forever. Not worth the effort. I wonder how those permanent bans work...

Please, dont waste any effort answering this comment, because there wont be any more replies.

Imagine being this upset/dramatic because people disagree with you

I can do that one better

Imagine being upset/dramatic because people disagree with you...about videogames.



DonFerrari on 07 February 2020
padib said:
DonFerrari said:

I do think you are being to optimistic with Switch numbers and conservative/pessimitisc with PS4 numbers, I do think PS4 will have a 10-20M lead over Switch at the end of both sales.

My PS4 numbers are following the trends, just open the Tools -> Hardware by Date and you'll see it for yourself. They're only mathematical.

For Switch, it's very hard to tell of course I'm offering a projection based on the nature of the console and its current trend. If you think it's off, then you should say why you do.

I explained my main points, and I'll add some more:

- It is currently extremely popular and is only in its 3rd year, the trends are still on the ascending part of the bell curve. (check the graphs!)

- It has a number of potential console sellers in the pipeline

- It is not a console like we typically number them, so what could be considered a sequel platform is just another Switch model with greater capabilities, this is the big reason why I believe it will break the paradigm.

Just this year PS4 shall do about 10M, and following a slower drop than PS3 (because it is less expensive and had lower extra years) after PS4 release it shall do like another 6M in 2021 and 5M or so in the remaining years. Most projections/regression methods would put PS4 at 130M.

Switch is nearing its peak and no Nintendo system have sustained much after that to ensure more than doubling the sales.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

ArchangelMadzz on 07 February 2020

Switch's next 3 years will have to be the same as it's last 3 years to match what PS4 has now. Will it have the legs to do that? And if it does PS4 Will have sold a further 20 million by then potentially. Nintendo consoles aren't known for their legs but we'll see, depends on how much the switch Lite manages.



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Nu-13 on 07 February 2020
ArchangelMadzz said:
Switch's next 3 years will have to be the same as it's last 3 years to match what PS4 has now. Will it have the legs to do that? And if it does PS4 Will have sold a further 20 million by then potentially. Nintendo consoles aren't known for their legs but we'll see, depends on how much the switch Lite manages.

Switch will take like 2 years to match it's first 3 calendar years and ps4 won't sell that much.