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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

 

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 33 11.54%
 
First half of 2023 24 8.39%
 
Second half of 2023 35 12.24%
 
First half of 2024 15 5.24%
 
Second half of 2024 16 5.59%
 
First half of 2025 7 2.45%
 
Second half of 2025 5 1.75%
 
Later than above 2 0.70%
 
Never 149 52.10%
 
Total:286
Link_knight30 on 28 January 2020
curl-6 said:
Radek said:

Nobody cares if it's direct competition or not, we just speculate whether it can outsell PS4, same was we speculated if DS would outsell PS2.

This; a comparison does not need to be limited to only very similar devices.

PS4 and 3DS were compared for years, and the former outselling the latter was considered a milestone.

Yes, it was just an observation.



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curl-6 on 28 January 2020
aris4me said:

I was wondering why we say "switch 2 " like it may be a completely different console in terms of sales... and why we won't calculate switch + switch 2 vs ps4 + ps4 pro... Cause all these sales of PS4 are ps4 + ps4 pro (Gen 8 + 8,5 or 9 or I don't know :p )

Revisions have always been combined; nobody separates sales of the PS2 Fat and the PS2 Slim or the DS and the DSi.

People use 'Switch 2' to refer to a full blown successor, a PS5 to Switch's PS4, not a revision or 'Pro'.



VideoGameAccountant on 29 January 2020
zorg1000 said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

One thing I haven't seen mentioned is how well Nintendo's other handhelds have performed. Here is a brief rundown of each of Nintendo's handhelds by global sales

System Sales
Game Boy 118.69 M
Game Boy Advance 81.51 M
Nintendo DS  154.02M
Nintendo 3DS 75.45 M
Average Sales 107.41 M

Keep in mind too that the GBA was cut off early so it was only on the market for about 4-5 years. But as you can see, the average for Nintendo's handhelds is 107 million. This is already about where the PS4 is at. Switch only needs to sell a bit more above the average which is very doable. Nintendo's Q3 results aren't out yet but so far Switch sales are up about 30 percent through the first 6 months. 

I think this assumption that it can't happen is really driven by people looking at the console side and not the handheld side. There is a reason Nintendo made a hybrid system.

GBA was cut short but on the other hand Gameboy had an insane sales curve thanks to Pokemon & GBC causing it to peak in its 10th year and went 12 years before getting a successor which is unheard of so I think they cancel each other out.

Keep in mind Game Boy was released in a much different time. Game sales were no where what they were today. The NES was considered a phenomenon but only sold 60 million worldwide. Game Boy did have a much longer lifespan than many other consoles with 12 years overall. But I think when you consider that sales were much lower overall then the differences sort of equal out. 



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NobleTeam360 on 29 January 2020

Never...... yeah never.



SammyGiireal on 29 January 2020

It won't, a successor will come out before it reaches the number. I estimate the Switch sells about 100-110 million units lifetime. It started 4 years too late to catch up to Sony. It will be closer between its successor and the PS5.



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Bofferbrauer2 on 31 January 2020

bookmarked for the future.

I think way too many are banking upon the Switch getting cut short here. But unlike with the Wii, the GBA and the DS, there's simply no reason to do so this time around, and there's no direct competition on the market against the Switch, either. I think all those who don't think it can sell over 110M are in for a treat in a couple years.

Right now, 66.67% think Switch won't outsell the PS4, so pretty much exactly 2/3 of the forums. I'm curious how this will play out and change in the future...



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Nu-13 on 31 January 2020
SammyGiireal said:
It won't, a successor will come out before it reaches the number. I estimate the Switch sells about 100-110 million units lifetime. It started 4 years too late to catch up to Sony. It will be closer between its successor and the PS5.

So what? You think sales stop after a successor?

There's no such thing as starting 4 years too late. Each system will have it's own market life.



Soundwave on 31 January 2020

PS4 is at 106 million now, it's not going to just magically stop at 110 million.

Really Sony could probably hit 140 mill if they really want to, they haven't even cut to $199.99 let alone $149.99 ... if they wanted that number they could get it. It's a question of what they want to do.

Selling 106 million mostly at $299-$399 is crazy. Even the PS2 needed significant price cuts and DS was $130 or less basically all its product cycle ... for the PS4 to be $300 or more basically all its life cycle to 100+ million is incredible. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 31 January 2020

curl-6 on 31 January 2020
Nu-13 said:
SammyGiireal said:
It won't, a successor will come out before it reaches the number. I estimate the Switch sells about 100-110 million units lifetime. It started 4 years too late to catch up to Sony. It will be closer between its successor and the PS5.

So what? You think sales stop after a successor?

A feel like people often make this assumption. As the most recent example from Nintendo, the 3DS looks like it'll finish up having sold 12 million after its replacement.



Nu-13 on 31 January 2020
Soundwave said:

PS4 is at 106 million now, it's not going to just magically stop at 110 million.

Really Sony could probably hit 140 mill if they really want to, they haven't even cut to $199.99 let alone $149.99 ... if they wanted that number they could get it. It's a question of what they want to do.

Selling 106 million mostly at $299-$399 is crazy. Even the PS2 needed significant price cuts and DS was $130 or less basically all its product cycle ... for the PS4 to be $300 or more basically all its life cycle to 100+ million is incredible. 

Oh my. By your first sentence, you seem to imply that the switch will only do 110m at best. You must have "interesting" predictions for the next few years.

Very funny. There isn't a realistic scenario for the ps4 to reach those numbers. Sony would have needed a $199 price tag by the end of 2017 or something similar.

I don't really get what you're trying to say on that last paragraph. It appears that you're trying to downplay sales of cheaper products, completely ignoring that price is the most basic part of a business strategy. And for the record, the switch hasn't received a price cut in almost 3 years while the ps4 already had 2 in that time frame and is still tracking ahead. Add that to your list of things to consider.