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Forums - Sales Discussion - According to Mat Piscatella "Next Gen consoles sales will not have a major effect on Switch sales"

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What do you think

Agree with him 46 76.67%
 
I am not agree 14 23.33%
 
Total:60
KLAMarine on 03 January 2020

I imagine they'll have some effect but not as much as the NeXtBox / PS5 will have on each other.



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Shadow1980 on 03 January 2020

This is a "Captain Obvious" prediction on Mat's part. The release of a console from one brand has never had any measurable impact on the sales of a console from another brand. It just doesn't happen. Ever. There's no reason to assume it will start happening now, especially in this case. Nintendo is offering an experience that's much different than what Sony & MS offer. PlayStation & Xbox are like twins, while Nintendo kind of does their own unique thing. Nintendo is not really competing directly with PS & Xbox.



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SpokenTruth on 03 January 2020
Shadow1980 said:
This is a "Captain Obvious" prediction on Mat's part. The release of a console from one brand has never had any measurable impact on the sales of a console from another brand. It just doesn't happen. Ever. There's no reason to assume it will start happening now, especially in this case. Nintendo is offering an experience that's much different than what Sony & MS offer. PlayStation & Xbox are like twins, while Nintendo kind of does their own unique thing. Nintendo is not really competing directly with PS & Xbox.

For us it is but for his audience it's relevant information.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

The_Liquid_Laser on 03 January 2020
HollyGamer said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Well, he's half right.  PS5 and Series X are not going to slow down Switch at all.  On the other hand, the former two consoles are going to sell sluggishly for the first few years.  Switch is going to affect PS5 and Series X just like Wii affected the sales of PS3 and XBox360.  The Wii sold great for a few years and the other two were sluggish at first.  It didn't have a big effect on their lifetime sales.  Instead is was mostly a delaying effect on their sales.  Switch will have the same delaying effect on PS5 and Series X.

LOL, how can he has two separate statement, there is no half right and half wrong. When you are  agree with him  it means all of his statement are correct, because it's not based on opinion, it's based on research and study. Your statement is cherry picking ,  and altering the research cause based on scientific method that Mat Piscatella did. You agree with his result but not agree with the cause. And also he never mentioned PS5 sales or xbox sales. He discussing Switch sales. 

Just because a statement is true that doesn't mean the converse of a statement is true.  That is all I meant.  

I must have really touched a nerve with that statement for you to be triggered so badly. 

zorg1000 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Well, he's half right.  PS5 and Series X are not going to slow down Switch at all.  On the other hand, the former two consoles are going to sell sluggishly for the first few years.  Switch is going to affect PS5 and Series X just like Wii affected the sales of PS3 and XBox360.  The Wii sold great for a few years and the other two were sluggish at first.  It didn't have a big effect on their lifetime sales.  Instead is was mostly a delaying effect on their sales.  Switch will have the same delaying effect on PS5 and Series X.

That's not what happened.

With the exception of the launch window, due to shortages, 360 was outpacing its predecessor the entire time.

Xbox vs 360

Launch-1.5m vs 1.2m

Year 1-6.5m vs 6.8m

Year 2-5.7m vs 7.9m

Year 3-6.2m vs 10.9m

Year 4-4.1m vs 10.2m

Basically they tied for the first year (when Wii wasnt out yet) then 360 started outpacing it.

As for PS3, Wii had little to do with its sluggish sales, it was the ridiculously high price, Blu-Ray not being as big of deal as DVD and the loss of a ton of exclusives.

Wii was like Switch, great sales that were independent of the other consoles and complemented rather than competed with them.

Are you saying sales were not sluggish for PS3 and XBox360 for the first few years?  Both consoles peaked in 2011 according to VGChartz numbers.  How many other 2nd and 3rd place consoles peak 5-6 years after launch?   

At the same time the Wii actually did peak early.  Wii is up when the others are down.  Then Wii is down and the others are up.  That looks a whole lot like competition.

Shadow1980 said:
This is a "Captain Obvious" prediction on Mat's part. The release of a console from one brand has never had any measurable impact on the sales of a console from another brand. It just doesn't happen. Ever. There's no reason to assume it will start happening now, especially in this case. Nintendo is offering an experience that's much different than what Sony & MS offer. PlayStation & Xbox are like twins, while Nintendo kind of does their own unique thing. Nintendo is not really competing directly with PS & Xbox.

Normally you seem to know what you are talking about, but these statements I bolded make it seem like you don't believe in competition.  Don't you think any of the consoles are competing with one another?  Why did the SNES sell less than the NES.  Could it be that they bought a Genesis/Megadrive instead?  Why did the PS3 sell less than the PS2?  Is it just a coincidence that the XBox brand sold better in Generation 7 while the Playstation brand sold worse?

I mean, think about what you are actually saying.  These consoles are actually competing.  If one company makes a misstep, that doesn't mean most people just stop playing video games.  They buy a competing console instead.



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Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
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Nu-13 on 03 January 2020
HollyGamer said:
Nu-13 said:

You mean two expensive consoles of a different generation with few non cross gen games will not affect the sales of a very sucessful console during it's peak sales? No shit, Sherlock. By the time they are able to affect the switch, it will be on it's way out anyway.

No , It's not about price or games or popularity of Switch (that could be true but need another different discussion ). What the expert said in his tweet is "  Switch is not a direct competitor to PS5/Xbox " . Instead it's a compliment for both and will not cannibalize each other sales. 

A statement that is 100% wrong.

HoangNhatAnh said:
Nu-13 said:

You mean two expensive consoles of a different generation with few non cross gen games will not affect the sales of a very sucessful console during it's peak sales? No shit, Sherlock. By the time they are able to affect the switch, it will be on it's way out anyway.

Call me when top 10 selling games of Switch aren't 1st party but 3rd party instead. Majority people bought Switch for 1st party, not 3rd party

 

Call me when your post has anything to do with the subject at hand.

zorg1000 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Well, he's half right.  PS5 and Series X are not going to slow down Switch at all.  On the other hand, the former two consoles are going to sell sluggishly for the first few years.  Switch is going to affect PS5 and Series X just like Wii affected the sales of PS3 and XBox360.  The Wii sold great for a few years and the other two were sluggish at first.  It didn't have a big effect on their lifetime sales.  Instead is was mostly a delaying effect on their sales.  Switch will have the same delaying effect on PS5 and Series X.

That's not what happened.

With the exception of the launch window, due to shortages, 360 was outpacing its predecessor the entire time.

Xbox vs 360

Launch-1.5m vs 1.2m

Year 1-6.5m vs 6.8m

Year 2-5.7m vs 7.9m

Year 3-6.2m vs 10.9m

Year 4-4.1m vs 10.2m

Basically they tied for the first year (when Wii wasnt out yet) then 360 started outpacing it.

As for PS3, Wii had little to do with its sluggish sales, it was the ridiculously high price, Blu-Ray not being as big of deal as DVD and the loss of a ton of exclusives.

Wii was like Switch, great sales that were independent of the other consoles and complemented rather than competed with them.

I can't believe that after so long there's still this much denial. The wii was a huge hit, sony effed up the ps3 AND both of these facts impacted sales of the ps3.

Shadow1980 said:
This is a "Captain Obvious" prediction on Mat's part. The release of a console from one brand has never had any measurable impact on the sales of a console from another brand. It just doesn't happen. Ever. There's no reason to assume it will start happening now, especially in this case. Nintendo is offering an experience that's much different than what Sony & MS offer. PlayStation & Xbox are like twins, while Nintendo kind of does their own unique thing. Nintendo is not really competing directly with PS & Xbox.

You should specify that it's about existing consoles released many years prior. Consoles of the same generation affect each other a lot.



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HollyGamer on 03 January 2020
The_Liquid_Laser said:
HollyGamer said:

LOL, how can he has two separate statement, there is no half right and half wrong. When you are  agree with him  it means all of his statement are correct, because it's not based on opinion, it's based on research and study. Your statement is cherry picking ,  and altering the research cause based on scientific method that Mat Piscatella did. You agree with his result but not agree with the cause. And also he never mentioned PS5 sales or xbox sales. He discussing Switch sales. 

Just because a statement is true that doesn't mean the converse of a statement is true.  That is all I meant.  

I must have really touched a nerve with that statement for you to be triggered so badly.

The problem is,  you are triggering yourself with his statement. 



HollyGamer on 03 January 2020
Nu-13 said:
HollyGamer said:

No , It's not about price or games or popularity of Switch (that could be true but need another different discussion ). What the expert said in his tweet is "  Switch is not a direct competitor to PS5/Xbox " . Instead it's a compliment for both and will not cannibalize each other sales. 

A statement that is 100% wrong.

No fam, you need a glass to read his statement , unless you don't want to accept reality. I know Nintendo Switch is like a a second coming Jesus for you. But in reality based on the fact and the research it's not like that.  Also that person is the expert who support Nintendo sales. 

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Last edited by CGI-Quality - on 03 January 2020

DonFerrari on 03 January 2020

Yes we know it, even thought there is people that believe Switch compete directly with PS/Xbox it don't. We have seem Switch release not affecting sales curve of PS4/X1 and we will see PS5/XSX release not affecting sales curve of Switch.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari on 03 January 2020
zorg1000 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Well, he's half right.  PS5 and Series X are not going to slow down Switch at all.  On the other hand, the former two consoles are going to sell sluggishly for the first few years.  Switch is going to affect PS5 and Series X just like Wii affected the sales of PS3 and XBox360.  The Wii sold great for a few years and the other two were sluggish at first.  It didn't have a big effect on their lifetime sales.  Instead is was mostly a delaying effect on their sales.  Switch will have the same delaying effect on PS5 and Series X.

That's not what happened.

With the exception of the launch window, due to shortages, 360 was outpacing its predecessor the entire time.

Xbox vs 360

Launch-1.5m vs 1.2m

Year 1-6.5m vs 6.8m

Year 2-5.7m vs 7.9m

Year 3-6.2m vs 10.9m

Year 4-4.1m vs 10.2m

Basically they tied for the first year (when Wii wasnt out yet) then 360 started outpacing it.

As for PS3, Wii had little to do with its sluggish sales, it was the ridiculously high price, Blu-Ray not being as big of deal as DVD and the loss of a ton of exclusives.

Wii was like Switch, great sales that were independent of the other consoles and complemented rather than competed with them.

We can enterely pinpoint X360 taking a lot of sales from PS3 (and PS4 retaking it from X1), but PS4/X1 had nothing to do with WiiU doing so bad or Wii with PS3 being sluggish (also no Idea how he can consider X360 to have been sluggish).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari on 03 January 2020
The_Liquid_Laser said:
HollyGamer said:

LOL, how can he has two separate statement, there is no half right and half wrong. When you are  agree with him  it means all of his statement are correct, because it's not based on opinion, it's based on research and study. Your statement is cherry picking ,  and altering the research cause based on scientific method that Mat Piscatella did. You agree with his result but not agree with the cause. And also he never mentioned PS5 sales or xbox sales. He discussing Switch sales. 

Just because a statement is true that doesn't mean the converse of a statement is true.  That is all I meant.  

I must have really touched a nerve with that statement for you to be triggered so badly. 

zorg1000 said:

That's not what happened.

With the exception of the launch window, due to shortages, 360 was outpacing its predecessor the entire time.

Xbox vs 360

Launch-1.5m vs 1.2m

Year 1-6.5m vs 6.8m

Year 2-5.7m vs 7.9m

Year 3-6.2m vs 10.9m

Year 4-4.1m vs 10.2m

Basically they tied for the first year (when Wii wasnt out yet) then 360 started outpacing it.

As for PS3, Wii had little to do with its sluggish sales, it was the ridiculously high price, Blu-Ray not being as big of deal as DVD and the loss of a ton of exclusives.

Wii was like Switch, great sales that were independent of the other consoles and complemented rather than competed with them.

Are you saying sales were not sluggish for PS3 and XBox360 for the first few years?  Both consoles peaked in 2011 according to VGChartz numbers.  How many other 2nd and 3rd place consoles peak 5-6 years after launch?   

At the same time the Wii actually did peak early.  Wii is up when the others are down.  Then Wii is down and the others are up.  That looks a whole lot like competition.

Shadow1980 said:
This is a "Captain Obvious" prediction on Mat's part. The release of a console from one brand has never had any measurable impact on the sales of a console from another brand. It just doesn't happen. Ever. There's no reason to assume it will start happening now, especially in this case. Nintendo is offering an experience that's much different than what Sony & MS offer. PlayStation & Xbox are like twins, while Nintendo kind of does their own unique thing. Nintendo is not really competing directly with PS & Xbox.

Normally you seem to know what you are talking about, but these statements I bolded make it seem like you don't believe in competition.  Don't you think any of the consoles are competing with one another?  Why did the SNES sell less than the NES.  Could it be that they bought a Genesis/Megadrive instead?  Why did the PS3 sell less than the PS2?  Is it just a coincidence that the XBox brand sold better in Generation 7 while the Playstation brand sold worse?

I mean, think about what you are actually saying.  These consoles are actually competing.  If one company makes a misstep, that doesn't mean most people just stop playing video games.  They buy a competing console instead.

Besides you mixing cause and effect.

And on your comment to Shadow. He isn't denying competition exists, he is saying that a console in gen X isn't affected by the release of the console from another maker on gen Y. He isn't saying that consoles from company X and Y don't affect the sales of one another when they are of the same gen.

Basically Mega Drive didn't considerably affect the sales of NES, PS1 didn't considerably affect sales of SNES, GC and Xbox didn't affect sales of PS1, X360 and Wii didn't affect sales of PS2, WiiU and X1 didn't affect the sales of PS3/X360 and Switch didn't affect the sales of PS4/X1.

Just go look at the sales curve of them. Sure most of these cases the leader was already in the tale end of their life anyway, but their sales is already stablished enough that the new gen of a competitor don't affect them, they really lose wind when the sucessor of the same maker comes out (even more because that company also change focus to the new HW).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."