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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - What do you want in a Switch 2?

Soundwave on 10 January 2020
RolStoppable said:
Soundwave said:

People are not stupid, they're not going to keep paying $300-$350 just for something that is a small upgrade indefinitely. 

Those people in that price category (willing to spend $300-$400+) will spend that money most likely on PS5 or XBXS instead as those companies will aggressively court that audience's spending power. 

So yeah if you want just rinky dink kiddie audience that doesn't care for graphics fine, but you don't get to have it both ways and think you're not going to lose a lot of the higher end Switch demo that simply gets tired of a very dated product. They're gonna start bailing out of the platform in 2022, 2023, no one's going to give that much of a shit that you're releasing another 3D Mario on the same dated hardware that was running Odyssey by that point. 

The people in that price category upgraded to the new hybrid SKU in 2019 for nothing more than an improvement to battery life. You can be certain that they'll upgrade again when more improvements are offered because there won't be another company that offers something better than Switch.

You still cling to your imaginary audience because you refuse to believe that the video game market doesn't work according to your beliefs. In 2017 before the Switch launched, you said it's not good enough to sell well. After a few months of it selling well, you said it must be because of the PS/Xbox audience. When the ports of AAA third party games didn't sell high numbers and it was clear that people liked Switch for other reasons, you were at a loss of words. Now we are at "People who like Nintendo games will stop caring about Switch when Nintendo releases more top of the line first party games."

Before shooting your mouth off maybe you can point to how many Nintendo systems actually have performed without notable decline past year 5 without coming forth with a laundry list of excuses in the last 30 years. Secondly most people didn't rebuy the new larger battery SKU. Most of those people are first time Switch owners. 

Nintendo doesn't give a shit about your obsession with end LTD platform either. In 2022, 2023 they're going to want to hit certain fiscal year targets and keeping the stock price high, the LTD of a platform is not the be all, end all for Nintendo. That's very difficult to maintain profit margins and yearly hardware shipments when you have a very dated piece of hardware. 

In the real world businesses have share holders, not idiot fanboys who want to win arguments against "Sony fans" on the internet to answer to. And they care about the stock price year to year, not some culminate generational hardware total.

They've never in the last 30 years not had a new hardware platform every 4 years really, they are used to getting an influx of new adopters every couple of years, I doubt very much they'll be content just driving a dated Switch into the ground when it has to carry the entire company. They can very easily have Switch 2 and Switch 1 co-exist instead and enjoy better hardware shipments for a yearly basis. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 10 January 2020

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Soundwave on 10 January 2020
RolStoppable said:
Soundwave said:

Before shooting your mouth off maybe you can point to how many Nintendo systems actually have performed past year 5 without coming forth with a laundry list of excuses in the last 30 years. Secondly most people didn't rebuy the new larger battery SKU. Most of those people are first time Switch owners. 

Nintendo doesn't give a shit about your obsession with end LTD platform either. In 2022, 2023 they're going to want to hit certain fiscal year targets and keeping the stock price high, the LTD of a platform is not the be all, end all for Nintendo. That's very difficult to maintain profit margins and yearly hardware shipments when you have a very dated piece of hardware. 

In the real world businesses have share holders, not idiot fanboys on the internet to answer to. And they care about the stock price year to year, not some culminate generational hardware total, that doesn't mean that much to them. 

The already mentioned DS has performed past year 5 and it's the closest comparison to Switch because of the health of the software pipeline.

It will be much easier for Nintendo to maintain high profits by acting in accordance with the market instead of rushing out a new console to please you. If you think about the last several years and all your recommendations regarding what Nintendo should do, how Nintendo acted against your advice and became successful, then shouldn't you admit that maybe, just maybe, you don't know all that much about how this business works?

DS is 1/8 Nintendo recent platforms. Any others? The DS is going to pull away from the Switch in its sales curve soon if it hasn't already, so I don't think that's really much of a comparable unless Switch is going to sell 30 million+ the next two years (doubtful). DS was the exception to the rule, not the rule. 

You don't know how business works, you're just obsessed with a dumb platform LTD, you don't understand concepts like a company having a bigger responsibility like yearly fiscal targets and their stock price. You're motivated by stupid fanboy wars, a business suit is not going to give a shit about that. 

The LTD of a platform is only one factor and quite frankly it's not as high you make it out to be. Stock price and yearly profit totals are more important along with maintaining brand momentum. 



Soundwave on 10 January 2020
RolStoppable said:
Soundwave said:

DS is 1/8 Nintendo recent platforms. Any others? The DS is going to pull away from the Switch in its sales curve soon if it hasn't already, so I don't think that's really much of a comparable unless Switch is going to sell 30 million+ the next two years (doubtful). DS was the exception to the rule, not the rule. 

You don't know how business works, you're just obsessed with a dumb platform LTD, you don't understand concepts like a company having a bigger responsibility like yearly fiscal targets and their stock price. You're motivated by stupid fanboy wars, a business suit is not going to give a shit about that. 

The LTD of a platform is only one factor and quite frankly it's not as high you make it out to be. Stock price and yearly profit totals are more important along with maintaining brand momentum. 

You said I shouldn't make excuses, and now you yourself are making excuses. You say the DS doesn't count without providing a counterpoint to what I said (health of the software pipeline). You set the goal at "Switch must sell 30m+ in back to back years" despite 20m+ years already being more than sufficient to keep Nintendo highly profitable and their share price high.

You have yet to provide any good reason why Nintendo should cut the life of Switch short. It's clear that you want more processing power, but you can't make a good case for why Nintendo needs it.

I didn't say the DS doesn't count, but the fact is it's very much the outlier for Nintendo platforms, not the normal range of their platforms, and likely the Switch is going to start to fall behind the DS fairly quickly here if it isn't already even with 20 million-range sales the next two years, the DS was a far stronger platform than even that. 

You want to argue with fanboys on the internet, stock price, yearly hardware totals are kind of a problem in your theory. 

There is no reason why Switch 1 and 2 can't co-exist for multiple years on top of that, they would be serving completely different parts of the market. 

Even if I wanted more processing power ... Nintendo has always benefitted from more processing power to make better games in the end. Breath of the Wild would be dog shit running on a Wii/3DS, it benefits from better hardware. And when ever Nintendo gets to their next hardware leap there will inevitably be games that run on it that simply wouldn't have been as good on older hardware. It's better to want that than what ... your POV which is ... so you get to argue with Sony fans on a message board ... whoopity freaking doo. Any of those Sony fans even going to send you a cookie as a trophy if you win? lol. 



Soundwave on 10 January 2020
RolStoppable said:
Soundwave said:

I didn't say the DS doesn't count, but the fact is it's very much the outlier for Nintendo platforms, not the normal range of their platforms, and likely the Switch is going to start to fall behind the DS fairly quickly here if it isn't already even with 20 million-range sales the next two years, the DS was a far stronger platform than even that. 

You want to argue with fanboys on the internet, stock price, yearly hardware totals are kind of a problem in your theory. 

There is no reason why Switch 1 and 2 can't co-exist for multiple years on top of that, they would be serving completely different parts of the market. 

Even if I wanted more processing power ... Nintendo has always benefitted from more processing power to make better games in the end. Breath of the Wild would be dog shit running on a Wii/3DS, it benefits from better hardware. It's better to want that than what ... your POV which is ... so you get to argue with Sony fans on a message board ... whoopity freaking doo, lol. 

Don't you realize how much you are contradicting yourself? You repeat over and over how it is about profitability and share price, but at the same time make the Switch vs. DS comparison purely about hardware sales. Shareholders won't care if Switch doesn't match the sales pace of the DS when Switch exceeds the DS's profitability due to higher profit margins on games, higher tie ratio, higher accessory sales and a subscription for an online service.

Switch and its successor can co-exist for a while (like 3DS and Switch did for a while), that's clear to everyone. The actual point of contention is if that transitional period should be 2022-2024 or later. The same co-existence can be done from 2025 to 2027, only that in that case Switch will have made use of its full potential instead of falling victim to rushing out a successor sooner than needed.

I'm not contradicting anything, you know I'm riding so you're moving goal posts. 

The point about year to year sales is Nintendo in 2022 is not going to be happy with "only" 10-11 million Switch shipments when they could be selling higher hardware totals between a Switch 2 + Switch 1 combined. 

"Full potential" is just some imaginary concept you have in your head to drive a hardware platform into the ground before replacing it, that's not in Nintendo's best interests by 2022 at all. They don't get any bonus trophy just for hitting LTD targets of a hardware platform. That's a nice bonus to have, but it's not the end game of how a business is run, investors only care what you are doing in that fiscal year, "well we peaked 2 years ago and now are on a down cycle, but keep our stock price high please" doesn't fly with investors. 



Soundwave on 10 January 2020
RolStoppable said:
Soundwave said:

I'm not contradicting anything, you know I'm riding so you're moving goal posts. 

The point about year to year sales is Nintendo in 2022 is not going to be happy with "only" 10-11 million Switch shipments when they could be selling higher hardware totals between a Switch 2 + Switch 1 combined. 

"Full potential" is just some imaginary concept you have in your head to drive a hardware platform into the ground before replacing it, that's not in Nintendo's best interests by 2022 at all. They don't get any bonus trophy just for hitting LTD targets of a hardware platform. That's a nice bonus to have, but it's not the end game of how a business is run, investors only care what you are doing in that fiscal year, "well we peaked 2 years ago and now are on a down cycle, but keep our stock price high please" doesn't fly with investors. 

Switch shipping 10-11m units in 2022. Good one, Soundwave.

Doesn't matter the model you're advocating for, which is to basically hang on to a system forever and expect no hardware decline (yeah right) in the later years doesn't work. The stock price will start to sink in the later years because investors don't care that you shipped 20 million ... 2 years ago, they want to know why you aren't shipping that much now. 

For all this shit about Nintendo history this and that, from a pure business POV from 1989 onwards basically they've always had a new hardware platform basically every 3-4 years to infuse new buyers into their bottom line, and they weren't giving that money to charity. I'm sure they enjoyed that infusion of business they got every time they did that. 



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Soundwave on 10 January 2020

When I say 2022 I'm referring the the fiscal year which would end March 2023. And that's entirely possible, the DS went from like 31 million peak to 17 million in just 2 years. Nintendo systems can drop hard from their peak in 2-3 years.

3DS peaked at 13.95 and two fiscal years later was at 8.73 million. Wii peaked at 25.9 million and was down to 15 million two fiscal years later.

Three years removed from the peak is uglier.

Nintendo systems have much more volatile year to year swings like that ... in the past they were more easily able to make up for this because often the hardware cycle would work out just so such that they would have a new handheld or a new console coming to make up for declines in other areas. So you could sell investors on things like don't worry about Wii sales declining because 3DS is just around the corner (of course they didn't execute that well, but in advance that's something a share holder can look at and say "yeah I'm not selling my shares, this 3DS is probably going to cause a boom in business"). 

The idea that now they're suddenly going to become a company that consistently goes like 18-20 mill a year every even in years 4/5/6 ... I'd have serious doubts about that. They've never proven themselves to be able to hold sales consistent like that deep into a hardware lifecycle without serious declines. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 10 January 2020

Soundwave on 10 January 2020
RolStoppable said:
Soundwave said:

When I say 2022 I'm referring the the fiscal year which would end March 2023. And that's entirely possible, the DS went from like 31 million peak to 17 million in just 2 years. Nintendo systems can drop hard from their peak in 2-3 years.

3DS peaked at 13.95 and two fiscal years later was at 8.73 million. Wii peaked at 25 million and was down to 15 million two fiscal years later.

Three years removed from the peak is uglier.

Nintendo systems have much more volatile year to year swings like that ... in the past they were more easily able to make up for this because often the hardware cycle would work out just so such that they would have a new handheld or a new console coming to make up for declines in other areas. So you could sell investors on things like don't worry about Wii sales declining because 3DS is just around the corner (of course they didn't execute that well, but in advance that's something a share holder can look at and say "yeah I'm not selling my shares, this 3DS is probably going to cause a boom in business"). 

The reason for such drops was that Nintendo moved their top development teams to a new console along with transitional periods where first party game development was spread across four consoles at once. The 3DS's drop was due to Nintendo shifting sales to the front with an early price cut and revisions.

None of the above situations are applicable to Switch. Nintendo's profitability is also not as dependent on yearly hardware sales as it was in the past. They are working on building up two revenue streams that are largely independent of hardware performance. Their endeavors on smart devices are self-explanatory while subscriptions for Nintendo Switch Online have something to do with Switch itself, but will be ongoing even when yearly hardware sales decline. That's why your fearmongering about Nintendo's profitability makes little to no sense.

You don't know that for sure. 

The fact is Nintendo has basically 8 really big selling IP ... Pokemon, 3D Mario, 2D Mario, Zelda, Smash, Splatoon, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart. Once you start to saturate these IP with multiple instalments on a hardware platform you start to run out of appeal, I think that plays as large of a factor. 

Nintendo's success in the smartphone realm has been up and down too, they are making decent money from it but I don't think Animal Crossing has been the huge hit on the phone side they were hoping for. After a hot start, Mario Kart has fallen down the top grossers chart too. Smartphone market is insanely overcrowded and unpredictable. Pokemon Go is still by far the top grossing Nintendo related app and they only see a limited cut from that. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 10 January 2020

Soundwave on 10 January 2020
RolStoppable said:
Soundwave said:

You don't know that for sure. 

The fact is Nintendo has basically 8 really big selling IP ... Pokemon, 3D Mario, 2D Mario, Zelda, Smash, Splatoon, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart. Once you start to saturate these IP with multiple instalments on a hardware platform you start to run out of appeal, I think that plays as large of a factor. 

Nintendo's success in the smartphone realm has been up and down too, they are making decent money from it but I don't think Animal Crossing has been the huge hit on the phone side they were hoping for. Smartphone market is insanely overcrowded and unpredictable. 

What doubt is there? Online subscriptions have little to no expenses, but huge profit margins. A few hundred million dollars in profit every year aren't hard to achieve, add a couple hundred million from the smart devices business and Nintendo is already more than halfway at Nintendo-like profits before hardware and software sales come into the equation. That takes a lot of pressure from having to launch new hardware and gives Nintendo more than enough time for a cohesive and coherent execution of a new hardware launch.

How many Nintendo consoles have had multiple installments of those IPs? SSB, Splatoon, Animal Crossing and Mario Kart have yet to appear twice on the same console. The only Nintendo consoles that had multiple new 2D Mario games were the NES and the Game Boy. 3D Mario appeared twice only on the Wii. Only Pokémon and Zelda have had multiple appearances on a regular basis. That you conclude oversaturation in the absence of multiple installments for most of the IPs you named is baffling.

By the end of this year likely you're going to have 

Zelda 3D (x2) + Zelda 2D (x1)

Mario 3D (x1 or 2 possibly) Mario 2D (x2)

Mario Kart

Smash

Animal Crossing 

Pokemon (several times over)

Fire Emblem

Splatoon 

Donkey Kong Country

Xenoblade

Mario Party

Already with major instalments on the system ... what other IP do they have past the above that would cause a massive hardware boost. 

Nintendo systems don't fade down the stretch by accident, it's likely tied to the above issue as much as anything else. You can only sell so much selling to same people that are interested in a group of about 8 IP before you start hitting diminishing returns. 

The DS was able to bypass that by taping into touch casual gaming before smartphones existed and creating a second swing audience that way, but Switch isn't going to have a 20 million+ selling Nintendogs or Brain Training most likely. 



Soundwave on 10 January 2020
RolStoppable said:
Soundwave said:

By the end of this year likely you're going to have 

Zelda 3D (x2) + Zelda 2D (x1)

Mario 3D (x1 or 2 possibly) Mario 2D (x2)

Mario Kart

Smash

Animal Crossing 

Pokemon (several times over)

Fire Emblem

Splatoon 

Donkey Kong Country

Xenoblade

Mario Party

Already with major instalments on the system ... what other IP do they have past the above that would cause a massive hardware boost. 

Nintendo systems don't fade down the stretch by accident, it's likely tied to the above issue as much as anything else. You can only sell so much selling to same people that are interested in a group of about 8 IP before you start hitting diminishing returns. 

The DS was able to bypass that by taping into touch casual gaming before smartphones existed and creating a second swing audience that way, but Switch isn't going to have a 20 million+ selling Nintendogs or Brain Training most likely. 

How often have previous Nintendo consoles received new installments - of the 8 IPs you mentioned in your previous post - after their fourth year on the market? That is what you have to look at if you want to examine diminishing returns down the stretch.

It looks a lot more like the absence of new installments after the fourth year correlates with declining hardware sales, rather than the conclusion you want to draw.

Wii received a new Mario Galaxy and a new Zelda down the stretch ... didn't stop steep sales declines. 3DS has gotten a pretty steady diet of Pokemon games as its sales have declined. 

If you liked Mario games, how many Mario starring games do you need before you decide you need that hardware anyway, lol. If the first 7 games with Mario in them prominently didn't do it I doubt the audience that is going to go nuts for the 8th one is suddenly going to cause a huge surge (ie: the person who won't buy a Switch for Mario Odyssey, NSMBU, Mario Party, Mario Maker, Mario Odyssey 2, Mario Kart ... but Paper Mario is what they're waiting on before buying ... how big really is that type of an audience going to be). 

The other issue is there tends to be a lot of overlap with these audiences ... Mario fans tend to probably like Zelda or Pokemon too and vice versa. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 10 January 2020

Soundwave on 10 January 2020
RolStoppable said:
Soundwave said:

Wii received a new Mario Galaxy and a new Zelda down the stretch ... didn't stop steep sales declines. 3DS has gotten a pretty steady diet of Pokemon games as its sales have declined. 

If you liked Mario games, how many Mario starring games do you need before you decide you need that hardware anyway, lol. If the first 7 games with Mario in them prominently didn't do it I doubt the audience that is going to go nuts for the 8th one is suddenly going to cause a huge surge (ie: the person who won't buy a Switch for Mario Odyssey, NSMBU, Mario Party, Mario Maker, Mario Odyssey 2, Mario Kart ... but Paper Mario is what they're waiting on before buying ... how big really is that type of an audience going to be). 

The other issue is there tends to be a lot of overlap with these audiences ... Mario fans tend to probably like Zelda or Pokemon too and vice versa. 

Super Mario Galaxy released during the Wii's fourth year, so with Skyward Sword you are sitting at 1 of 8 IPs that fit the criterion. The same goes for the 3DS, you have 1 of 8 if that's all you can think of.

And because you realize how flawed your argument is, you move the goalposts and pretend that all IPs under the Mario moniker are the same, or alternatively, there's a lot of overlap across all Nintendo IPs. But even if it were like that, that still doesn't change that you are looking at scenarios where only 1 out of 8 big IPs saw a new installment late in a console's lifecycle.

I stand behind my points. 

Why are you even in a Switch 2 thread? lol. Can we actually discuss that? Clearly you have no interest in one because you put dumb internet message board arguments over everything else (and then end up getting dunked on by Sony fans in the end anyway). So console LTD is all that matters to you even above gaming quality. This is a thread for SWITCH 2 discussion and what people want from it. 

Nobody cares about your obsessive agenda to save face in front of 20 other kids on this board.