When I say 2022 I'm referring the the fiscal year which would end March 2023. And that's entirely possible, the DS went from like 31 million peak to 17 million in just 2 years. Nintendo systems can drop hard from their peak in 2-3 years.
3DS peaked at 13.95 and two fiscal years later was at 8.73 million. Wii peaked at 25.9 million and was down to 15 million two fiscal years later.
Three years removed from the peak is uglier.
Nintendo systems have much more volatile year to year swings like that ... in the past they were more easily able to make up for this because often the hardware cycle would work out just so such that they would have a new handheld or a new console coming to make up for declines in other areas. So you could sell investors on things like don't worry about Wii sales declining because 3DS is just around the corner (of course they didn't execute that well, but in advance that's something a share holder can look at and say "yeah I'm not selling my shares, this 3DS is probably going to cause a boom in business").
The idea that now they're suddenly going to become a company that consistently goes like 18-20 mill a year every even in years 4/5/6 ... I'd have serious doubts about that. They've never proven themselves to be able to hold sales consistent like that deep into a hardware lifecycle without serious declines.
Last edited by Soundwave - on 10 January 2020
