Yeah, if Switch would suddenly drop off a cliff, it wouldn't be as successful as people make it out to be. But such a thing never happened in game history.

Also, quick note: even if the release of next gen suddenly influences Switch, it wouldn't have much effect next year, as the new consoles start only late in the year.

Yes. In fact, for the period of holidays 2020 the switch might look even more attractive because of the ps5/xsx. If rumors are true and they are priced at $499, only sony/ms diehards will be buying those while the mass market will take one look at the price tag and run straight to the $199-249 switch.

I said "or Wii U." I wasnt necessarily lumping 7th gen consoles and Wii U together in specs, but they were relatively close in practice.

Also, youre just making an assumption.

We will see, but if what you're saying is true, Nintendo wouldn't need to release a successor to the Switch at all. Like I said, I believe the current success of the Switch has mostly to do with it being a pretty capable handheld that can run most current gen games (with some concessions). That will obviously change when next gen hits, 3rd party support will be non-existent, and the masses usually flock to the latest toy.  

How come they wouldn't need a successor at all? They simply don't need one right away. It's not like the new systems will stay expensive forever and every system declines naturally. The current success of the switch is because it is an amazing video game system that merges home console with portability AND has an excelent game library. The market clearly loved the idea of having a portable and home console for the price of a single system, which is also why the lite isn't selling more.

Non existent 3rd party support when the 10th gen starts? That makes no sense. Games take time to develop, with most multiplats coming in 2020-2021 having started development way before there were even ps5/xsx devkits out. Those games will target ps4 hardware and merely run in 4k on the new systems so the switch doesn't have any specs barrier to receive those games too. It won't be until 2022 when a larger amount of games built with ps5/xsx in mind start releasing. At that point the switch will be old and nintendo will be about to release the switch 2 anyway.

Well part of the reason X1, PS4 and Switch have massive libraries is countless indie and other games not demanding in specs. Content like that will still be plentiful next gen and will be shared among the big three.

Some games will still treat PS4 and X1 as the lead platforms for a couple years. If games are aiming for 4K/60 fps on new consoles, then supporting Switch may not be impossible at a small fraction of the resolution with half the frame rate.

However, Switch's 3rd party support in regard to AAA content is already pretty abysmal. Is there a concern it will get worse? I suppose it could.

Either way, I'm sure Switch will still get plenty of games in general. But the expectations of AAA experiences on Switch should already be low.

Of course it did. In 2014 Sony only sold 3m ps3's and in 2015 that was just a little over a million. When new consoles come out, current gen always get phased out pretty quickly. We'll see if that'll happen with the Switch as handhelds are a bit of a different market. But Nintendo better have some monster games for 2020 if it wants to keep people interested. 

But Switch 2 isn't releasing in 2020, so we can't expect such a decline. Except you wanna tell us the decline of PS3-sales was caused by the release of the WiiU.

Nani? Ps3 was at the end of it's life anyway. Switch will be peaking in 2020.

What? That's because in 2014 we had PS4 and Xbox One. Or you mean Wii U caused PS3/Xbox 360 sales dropped? Switch sales would only drop hard in 2020 if Switch 2 also come out next year