Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Gap Charts November 2019 Discussion Thread

trunkswd said:

You can read the complete Article #3 and Analysis here:

Switch Vs. 3DS Global:

Gap change in latest month: 2,120,802 – Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 5,721,556 - Switch

Total Lead: 8,631,000 – Switch

Switch Total Sales: 44,771,334

3DS Total Sales: 36,140,334

Switch leaving 3DS in the dust, and deservedly so, it is a vastly superior product.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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trunkswd said:

You can read the complete Article #3 and Analysis here:

Switch Vs. 3DS Global:

Gap change in latest month: 2,120,802 – Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 5,721,556 - Switch

Total Lead: 8,631,000 – Switch

Switch Total Sales: 44,771,334

3DS Total Sales: 36,140,334

5.7m of the total lead of 8.6m came in the last 12 months alone. Within the next 12 months, Switch will easily double its total lead over the 3DS.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

curl-6 said:

Switch leaving 3DS in the dust, and deservedly so, it is a vastly superior product.

RolStoppable said:

5.7m of the total lead of 8.6m came in the last 12 months alone. Within the next 12 months, Switch will easily double its total lead over the 3DS.

Once the Switch lead over the 3DS grows to a certain point I'll be changing it from launched align to the current date, so it will show when the Switch passes the 3DS lifetime sales. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

The most important thing to note is that 3DS sales rate had already peaked well before this 33 month point. Meanwhile Switch sales are currently accelerating. Lifetime, Switch is going to easily blow the 3DS away.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
The most important thing to note is that 3DS sales rate had already peaked well before this 33 month point. Meanwhile Switch sales are currently accelerating. Lifetime, Switch is going to easily blow the 3DS away.

If the Switch sells 20 million in 2020 it will be around 70 million sold, which would put it right behind the 3DS. I see the Switch topping 100 million lifetime with how good the sales currently are. It should have much better legs than the Wii. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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trunkswd said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
The most important thing to note is that 3DS sales rate had already peaked well before this 33 month point. Meanwhile Switch sales are currently accelerating. Lifetime, Switch is going to easily blow the 3DS away.

If the Switch sells 20 million in 2020 it will be around 70 million sold, which would put it right behind the 3DS. I see the Switch topping 100 million lifetime with how good the sales currently are. It should have much better legs than the Wii. 

Conservatively, it will definitely sell at least 100m.  But I actually think Switch still has some major surprises left.  

Switch has almost no third party exclusives yet, even though the 3DS had a lot of third party exclusives.  Because of that I think there are a lot of third party exclusives still one the way.  All of these 3DS developers are actually working on Switch games right now.  A good example is Bravely Default 2, which was just announced.  I thought games like this would have been here sooner, but apparently going from the 240p 3DS to the 720p-900p Switch is going to prolong development time a lot.  It's a big adjustment.

Right now most third party games are ports or indies, but I think Switch has a much richer third party library in its future.  That will lead to much greater lifetime sales than 100m.  It won't just be first party games carrying the Switch almost single handedly.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

Switch has almost no third party exclusives yet, even though the 3DS had a lot of third party exclusives.  Because of that I think there are a lot of third party exclusives still one the way.  All of these 3DS developers are actually working on Switch games right now.  A good example is Bravely Default 2, which was just announced.  I thought games like this would have been here sooner, but apparently going from the 240p 3DS to the 720p-900p Switch is going to prolong development time a lot.  It's a big adjustment.

Right now most third party games are ports or indies, but I think Switch has a much richer third party library in its future.  That will lead to much greater lifetime sales than 100m.  It won't just be first party games carrying the Switch almost single handedly.

I dunno, that would require third parties to pull their heads out of their collective rectums and invest in the platform, something I just can't see happening, with Switch nearing its third birthday and the likes of Activision and Capcom still treating it like it's the Wii U.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Switch has almost no third party exclusives yet, even though the 3DS had a lot of third party exclusives.  Because of that I think there are a lot of third party exclusives still one the way.  All of these 3DS developers are actually working on Switch games right now.  A good example is Bravely Default 2, which was just announced.  I thought games like this would have been here sooner, but apparently going from the 240p 3DS to the 720p-900p Switch is going to prolong development time a lot.  It's a big adjustment.

Right now most third party games are ports or indies, but I think Switch has a much richer third party library in its future.  That will lead to much greater lifetime sales than 100m.  It won't just be first party games carrying the Switch almost single handedly.

I dunno, that would require third parties to pull their heads out of their collective rectums and invest in the platform, something I just can't see happening, with Switch nearing its third birthday and the likes of Activision and Capcom still treating it like it's the Wii U.

I am not talking about AAA games.  I am talking about 3DS sequels and the like.  Like I said, Bravely Default 2.  There are a whole lot of development teams that made exclusive games for 3DS, but we haven't seen similar original games for Switch yet.  I believe the lastest "Layton" game is actually a 3DS port, for example.  Where is the brand new Layton game?  It's still in development.

We just now got an announcement for Bravely Default 2.  This is the first taste of the games I am talking about.  They have been in development for a while now, and we'll probably start getting games like this in 2020.  I suspect these games take a long time to develop now, because it is a huge leap in technology to go from the 3DS to the Switch.  

Right now Switch is selling well based purely on 1) Nintendo IP, 2) third party ports and 3) indie games.  We are about to get a fourth leg of games to the Switch 4) third party exclusives.  These will mostly be from handheld developers, but it will be original content!  These new third party games mean that 2019 will not be Switch's peak year.  Switch will continue to get content from it's first 3 legs, while getting new content from the fourth leg as well.



You can read the complete Article #4 and Analysis here:

Switch Vs. DS Global:

Gap change in latest month: 2,138,000 – Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 5,264,929 - DS

Total Lead: 3,087,328 - DS

Switch Total Sales: 44,771,334

DS Total Sales: 47,858,662



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

I dunno, that would require third parties to pull their heads out of their collective rectums and invest in the platform, something I just can't see happening, with Switch nearing its third birthday and the likes of Activision and Capcom still treating it like it's the Wii U.

I am not talking about AAA games.  I am talking about 3DS sequels and the like.  Like I said, Bravely Default 2.  There are a whole lot of development teams that made exclusive games for 3DS, but we haven't seen similar original games for Switch yet.  I believe the lastest "Layton" game is actually a 3DS port, for example.  Where is the brand new Layton game?  It's still in development.

We just now got an announcement for Bravely Default 2.  This is the first taste of the games I am talking about.  They have been in development for a while now, and we'll probably start getting games like this in 2020.  I suspect these games take a long time to develop now, because it is a huge leap in technology to go from the 3DS to the Switch.  

Right now Switch is selling well based purely on 1) Nintendo IP, 2) third party ports and 3) indie games.  We are about to get a fourth leg of games to the Switch 4) third party exclusives.  These will mostly be from handheld developers, but it will be original content!  These new third party games mean that 2019 will not be Switch's peak year.  Switch will continue to get content from it's first 3 legs, while getting new content from the fourth leg as well.

I wasn't necessarily thinking of AAA games either, I'm just not seeing enough evidence of this supposed oncoming wave of third party exclusives to have confidence in its existence. I don't think third parties have the guts to make that kind of investment in the Switch. They're still burying their heads in the sand and ignoring its success for the most part.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.