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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Gap Charts November 2019 Discussion Thread

trunkswd said:

You can read the complete Article #5 and Analysis here:

Switch vs PS4 – VGChartz Gap Charts – November 2019

Switch Vs. PS4 Global:

Gap change in latest month: 3,326,204 – Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 2,543,006 – Switch

Total Lead: 2,647,083 - Switch

Switch Total Sales: 44,771,334

PS4 Total Sales: 42,124,251

Imagine showing this graph in January 2017 right after Nintendo Switch press conference.  



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curl-6 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Switch has almost no third party exclusives yet, even though the 3DS had a lot of third party exclusives.  Because of that I think there are a lot of third party exclusives still one the way.  All of these 3DS developers are actually working on Switch games right now.  A good example is Bravely Default 2, which was just announced.  I thought games like this would have been here sooner, but apparently going from the 240p 3DS to the 720p-900p Switch is going to prolong development time a lot.  It's a big adjustment.

Right now most third party games are ports or indies, but I think Switch has a much richer third party library in its future.  That will lead to much greater lifetime sales than 100m.  It won't just be first party games carrying the Switch almost single handedly.

I dunno, that would require third parties to pull their heads out of their collective rectums and invest in the platform, something I just can't see happening, with Switch nearing its third birthday and the likes of Activision and Capcom still treating it like it's the Wii U.

Activision-Blizzard support has gotten progressively better and seems to give it pretty good support now. 2017 was just Skylanders then 2018 had Crash N. Sane & Diablo 3 and 2019 had Spyro Reignited, CTR Nitro-Fueled & Overwatch. Basically just missing CoD.

Activision output in general has declined significantly in the last few years, some of their teams went from developing original titles to being just CoD support teams and they have cut back on the amount of outsourced/published titles compared to previous generations.

They are basically just CoD+Crash/Spyro now.

As for the Blizzard side you might say those are just years old ports but those are also the only Blizzard games released on any console since Starcraft 64 in 2000 so kind of hard to imagine support being any better.

Not having Call of Duty of any sort is a missed opportunity though, even if the console titles cant be ported for whatever reason, not having CoD Mobile on it doesnt make much sense. Maybe it will come later.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

I dunno, that would require third parties to pull their heads out of their collective rectums and invest in the platform, something I just can't see happening, with Switch nearing its third birthday and the likes of Activision and Capcom still treating it like it's the Wii U.

Activision-Blizzard support has gotten progressively better and seems to give it pretty good support now. 2017 was just Skylanders then 2018 had Crash N. Sane & Diablo 3 and 2019 had Spyro Reignited, CTR Nitro-Fueled & Overwatch. Basically just missing CoD.

Activision output in general has declined significantly in the last few years, some of their teams went from developing original titles to being just CoD support teams and they have cut back on the amount of outsourced/published titles compared to previous generations.

They are basically just CoD+Crash/Spyro now.

As for the Blizzard side you might say those are just years old ports but those are also the only Blizzard games released on any console since Starcraft 64 in 2000 so kind of hard to imagine support being any better.

Not having Call of Duty of any sort is a missed opportunity though, even if the console titles cant be ported for whatever reason, not having CoD Mobile on it doesnt make much sense. Maybe it will come later.

In a world where Wii got 4 COD ports from PS3/360, I just don't buy for a second that PS4/Xbone COD games can't be brought to Switch, where the power gap is considerably smaller.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

Activision-Blizzard support has gotten progressively better and seems to give it pretty good support now. 2017 was just Skylanders then 2018 had Crash N. Sane & Diablo 3 and 2019 had Spyro Reignited, CTR Nitro-Fueled & Overwatch. Basically just missing CoD.

Activision output in general has declined significantly in the last few years, some of their teams went from developing original titles to being just CoD support teams and they have cut back on the amount of outsourced/published titles compared to previous generations.

They are basically just CoD+Crash/Spyro now.

As for the Blizzard side you might say those are just years old ports but those are also the only Blizzard games released on any console since Starcraft 64 in 2000 so kind of hard to imagine support being any better.

Not having Call of Duty of any sort is a missed opportunity though, even if the console titles cant be ported for whatever reason, not having CoD Mobile on it doesnt make much sense. Maybe it will come later.

In a world where Wii got 4 COD ports from PS3/360, I just don't buy for a second that PS4/Xbone COD games can't be brought to Switch, where the power gap is considerably smaller.

That's why I said "for whatever reason"

Those games most likely could be downported to Switch but the reason probably has more to do with the teams not having the time/resources to add another platform to the mix, especially one that needs special concessions.

We have already heard about the CoD cycle being tough on the current teams with Sledgehammer getting kicked off from being the main studio behind CoD 2020 and Treyarch having to jump in and take over which is probably going cause a domino effect with Infinty Ward having to scramble to get CoD 2021 out in time.

In order to get the main series on Switch it would probably have to be an outsourced late port and at that point the question is, "will CoD 2018 sell well on Switch when CoD 2019 is about to be or already on other consoles?"

If they dont expect it to sell at least a few million than they probably don't think its worth the opportunity cost.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

How did I miss this thread until now? Or the previous ones for that matter???

Switch vs PS4 will become very interesting in a couple months, will the PS4 get past the Switch again or not?



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
How did I miss this thread until now? Or the previous ones for that matter???

Switch vs PS4 will become very interesting in a couple months, will the PS4 get past the Switch again or not?

It will absolutely stay ahead. End of PS4 holiday 2016 works out as end of April 2020 for Switch.

PS4 - 53.5m (December 2016)

Switch - 54.5m (April 2020) (Prediction)

Switch will remain ahead on launch aligned for a long time possibly even until 2023.



Barkley said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:
How did I miss this thread until now? Or the previous ones for that matter???

Switch vs PS4 will become very interesting in a couple months, will the PS4 get past the Switch again or not?

It will absolutely stay ahead. End of PS4 holiday 2016 works out as end of April 2020 for Switch.

PS4 - 53.5m (December 2016)

Switch - 54.5m (April 2020) (Prediction)

Switch will remain ahead on launch aligned for a long time possibly even until 2023.

Yeah, I'm expecting the Switch to stay ahead, too. But PS4 will then have January through March, which are generally higher in sales compared to Spring/early summer, so PS4 might pass the Switch again, or at least close the gap until the next holiday season. After all, 2017 was the PS4's best year, so this may very well become a very close duel next year, even if the Switch sells 20m+ then, as the brunt of the difference should come from December, which Nintendo generally dominates.

If he Switch can stay ahead throughout next year, then it will also very likely outsell the PS4 unless it crashes like the Wii after 2010 - but I don't see any reason why that crash would happen right now.



Bofferbrauer2 said:

If he Switch can stay ahead throughout next year, then it will also very likely outsell the PS4 unless it crashes like the Wii after 2010 - but I don't see any reason why that crash would happen right now.

It won't crash as hard as the Wii, or even 3ds, but it will decline significantly in 2021. Wii in 2011 (33% drop), 3DS in 2014 (32% drop). I expect Switch to drop by around 27% in 2021.

Switch January 2019 to December 2019 = 20.5m   (LT 50.1m)
PS4 September 2015 to August 2016 = 16.6m       (LT 42.8m)

Switch January 2020 to December 2020 = 22m      (LT 72.1m)
PS4 September 2016 to August 2017 = 21m          (LT 63.8m)

Switch - January 2021 to December 2021 = 16m    (LT 88.1m)
PS4 - September 2017 to August 2018 = 18.8m     (LT 82.6m)

Switch - January 2022 to December 2022 = 12m    (LT 100m)
PS4 - September 2018 to August 2019 = 17.1m     (LT 99.7m)

A few months into 2023 and PS4 takes the lead launch aligned.

It'll only be a little over a year to discover if I'm wrong or right, (or even less if 2020 proves to be a disappointment, though this seems very unlikely at the moment). By Summer 2021 it should be apparent that the Switch is either declining fast, or holding steady.

2021 really is the all-or-nothing year for the Switch.



trunkswd said:

You can read the complete article and Analysis here:

Switch Vs. 3DS and Wii U Global:

Gap change in latest month: 1,974,103 - Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 2,461,694 – Switch

Total Lead: 1,241,230 – 3DS and Wii U

Switch Total Sales: 44,771,334

3DS and Wii U Total Sales: 46,012,564

The gap is closing. For quite a while, a common way to downplay Switch's success was the argument that "because it's a successor to both Wii U and 3DS, it has to outsell them combined to be considered a success." Well, looked like it's going to do so with ease.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

So... are we still doing this thread? Last few charts weren't posted.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)