Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Gap Charts November 2019 Discussion Thread

How did I miss this thread until now? Or the previous ones for that matter???

Switch vs PS4 will become very interesting in a couple months, will the PS4 get past the Switch again or not?



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
How did I miss this thread until now? Or the previous ones for that matter???

Switch vs PS4 will become very interesting in a couple months, will the PS4 get past the Switch again or not?

It will absolutely stay ahead. End of PS4 holiday 2016 works out as end of April 2020 for Switch.

PS4 - 53.5m (December 2016)

Switch - 54.5m (April 2020) (Prediction)

Switch will remain ahead on launch aligned for a long time possibly even until 2023.



Barkley said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:
How did I miss this thread until now? Or the previous ones for that matter???

Switch vs PS4 will become very interesting in a couple months, will the PS4 get past the Switch again or not?

It will absolutely stay ahead. End of PS4 holiday 2016 works out as end of April 2020 for Switch.

PS4 - 53.5m (December 2016)

Switch - 54.5m (April 2020) (Prediction)

Switch will remain ahead on launch aligned for a long time possibly even until 2023.

Yeah, I'm expecting the Switch to stay ahead, too. But PS4 will then have January through March, which are generally higher in sales compared to Spring/early summer, so PS4 might pass the Switch again, or at least close the gap until the next holiday season. After all, 2017 was the PS4's best year, so this may very well become a very close duel next year, even if the Switch sells 20m+ then, as the brunt of the difference should come from December, which Nintendo generally dominates.

If he Switch can stay ahead throughout next year, then it will also very likely outsell the PS4 unless it crashes like the Wii after 2010 - but I don't see any reason why that crash would happen right now.



Bofferbrauer2 said:

If he Switch can stay ahead throughout next year, then it will also very likely outsell the PS4 unless it crashes like the Wii after 2010 - but I don't see any reason why that crash would happen right now.

It won't crash as hard as the Wii, or even 3ds, but it will decline significantly in 2021. Wii in 2011 (33% drop), 3DS in 2014 (32% drop). I expect Switch to drop by around 27% in 2021.

Switch January 2019 to December 2019 = 20.5m   (LT 50.1m)
PS4 September 2015 to August 2016 = 16.6m       (LT 42.8m)

Switch January 2020 to December 2020 = 22m      (LT 72.1m)
PS4 September 2016 to August 2017 = 21m          (LT 63.8m)

Switch - January 2021 to December 2021 = 16m    (LT 88.1m)
PS4 - September 2017 to August 2018 = 18.8m     (LT 82.6m)

Switch - January 2022 to December 2022 = 12m    (LT 100m)
PS4 - September 2018 to August 2019 = 17.1m     (LT 99.7m)

A few months into 2023 and PS4 takes the lead launch aligned.

It'll only be a little over a year to discover if I'm wrong or right, (or even less if 2020 proves to be a disappointment, though this seems very unlikely at the moment). By Summer 2021 it should be apparent that the Switch is either declining fast, or holding steady.

2021 really is the all-or-nothing year for the Switch.



You can read the complete article and Analysis here:

Switch Vs. 3DS and Wii U Global:

Gap change in latest month: 1,974,103 - Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 2,461,694 – Switch

Total Lead: 1,241,230 – 3DS and Wii U

Switch Total Sales: 44,771,334

3DS and Wii U Total Sales: 46,012,564



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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trunkswd said:

You can read the complete article and Analysis here:

Switch Vs. 3DS and Wii U Global:

Gap change in latest month: 1,974,103 - Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 2,461,694 – Switch

Total Lead: 1,241,230 – 3DS and Wii U

Switch Total Sales: 44,771,334

3DS and Wii U Total Sales: 46,012,564

The gap is closing. For quite a while, a common way to downplay Switch's success was the argument that "because it's a successor to both Wii U and 3DS, it has to outsell them combined to be considered a success." Well, looked like it's going to do so with ease.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

So... are we still doing this thread? Last few charts weren't posted.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:

So... are we still doing this thread? Last few charts weren't posted.

Slipped my mind to post them here  



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

You can read the complete article and Analysis here:

PS4 vs Xbox One in the US – VGChartz Gap Charts – November 2019

PS4 Vs. XOne US:

Gap change in latest month: 154,522 – PS4

Gap change over last 12 months: 701,767 – PS4

Total Lead: 4,566,606 – PS4

PS4 Total Sales: 31,411,653

Xbox One Total Sales: 26,845,047



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

You can read the complete article and Analysis here:

Switch vs PS4 in the US – VGChartz Gap Charts – November 2019

Switch Vs. PS4 US:

Gap change in latest month: 1,404,452 – Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 928,486 – Switch

Total Lead: 1,284,224 - Switch

Switch Total Sales: 15,564,941

PS4 Total Sales: 14,280,717



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.