| Bofferbrauer2 said:
If he Switch can stay ahead throughout next year, then it will also very likely outsell the PS4 unless it crashes like the Wii after 2010 - but I don't see any reason why that crash would happen right now. |
It won't crash as hard as the Wii, or even 3ds, but it will decline significantly in 2021. Wii in 2011 (33% drop), 3DS in 2014 (32% drop). I expect Switch to drop by around 27% in 2021.
Switch January 2019 to December 2019 = 20.5m (LT 50.1m)
PS4 September 2015 to August 2016 = 16.6m (LT 42.8m)
Switch January 2020 to December 2020 = 22m (LT 72.1m)
PS4 September 2016 to August 2017 = 21m (LT 63.8m)
Switch - January 2021 to December 2021 = 16m (LT 88.1m)
PS4 - September 2017 to August 2018 = 18.8m (LT 82.6m)
Switch - January 2022 to December 2022 = 12m (LT 100m)
PS4 - September 2018 to August 2019 = 17.1m (LT 99.7m)
A few months into 2023 and PS4 takes the lead launch aligned.
It'll only be a little over a year to discover if I'm wrong or right, (or even less if 2020 proves to be a disappointment, though this seems very unlikely at the moment). By Summer 2021 it should be apparent that the Switch is either declining fast, or holding steady.
2021 really is the all-or-nothing year for the Switch.
