Super Smash Bros Ultimate (15.71M)

Best selling single SKU of the series.

Only 2.96M behind the combined total of Smash 4 (Wii U + 3DS)

Pretty much guaranteed to take the top spot by itself.

Your mathematics are a little off because it has already beaten Smash 4 combined sales which currently sits at 14.91m ( 9.54m 3ds and 5.37m wii u ). The official sales data is in Nintendo's financial report in the best selling software section.

That image is for the complete FY so its Q1 and Q2 combined. I was talking only about Q2.

RolStoppable said:
No adjustment to the hardware forecast, so Nintendo keeps playing it safe. At 6.93m through two quarters, they only need 8m in Q3 and 3m in Q4 to hit the projected total of 18m.

Switch Lite launched at the backend of Q2, so stock levels were high going into Q3. Nevertheless, an upward revision can be expected to happen in January, but it depends on how well the Switch family performs during Q3. The big wild-card is Ring Fit Adventure because it's up in the air if it turns into a system seller. I expect 20m for hardware this fiscal year.

Last year Switch shipped 9.1m in Q3 and 2.7m in Q4 for a total of 11.8m and so far this year it is tracking over 30% higher than last year (5.1 m v 6.9m). I don't expect the sales growth to be quite so high in the next two quarters because of the smash effect last year, so maybe not 16m but 13 m is probable which will put them at a nice round 20m for the fiscal year and a healthy increase over last years 16.9m. IMO this will be it's peak year because history suggests the second or third year is usually a systems peak and this is it's third full year. I think the fourth year would only be a slight decline though and at this point 100m lifetime looks assured.