From Nintendo's latest quarterly report.

Mario Maker 2 - 880k
Fire Emblem 3H - 480k
Link’s Awakening - 350k

As many suspected vouchers are impacting retail sales. The same will happen with Luigi's Mansion 3 and Pokemon Sword/Shield.

So using the numbers for week 39 (ending September 29th):

Mario Maker 2 = 880,000 - 644,445 = 235,555 digital sales or 26.77%

Fire Emblem: Three Houses = 480,000 - 250,272 = 229,728 digital sales or 47.86%

Link's Awakening = 350,000 - 187,150 = 162,850 digital sales or 46.53%

*** Important to note that the percentage are actually lower since Nintendo reports sold to retailers and Famitsu reports sold to customers but there's no way to account for how many copies were on the shelves.

Indeed. It's out of stock in Amazon US. It will definitely in the holiday season

Switch might be in contention for the best ever year for a home console in Japan.

Please someone correct me on this, but I believe the PS2 sold 4.3-4.4m units in 2001, and looking at the trajectory from last year where the Switch managed to sell 1.6 m units from this point onwards, 4.5m for the year is not out of question with Pokemon, Ringfit, Luigi's Mansion and Mario Maker giving it a big a momentum.

Also, I've seen games that do what Ring Fit did in its second week (barely drop in sales), and taking into consideration the timing (right before the holidays), this might just exceed expectations and break a million or more in Japan. I would not be surprised, the appeal seems to be world wide at the moment and the timing of it all might carry it well into the holidays. 

So with no system-selling new releases, taxes, typhoons, etc, I believe this is the first week post-Lite where Switch is left to its own devices with no significant stimuli to push it up or down.

Or did I overlook something?

Ring Fit seems to be moving hardware of the OG model

Seriously, not more? I was expecting more something like 5.5M for the PS2 peak in Japan...

And I agree. What's more, if sales stay over those from last year during the holiday season, it comes dangerously close to the best 3DS year, even!

Not to take anything away from Switch's success (it'll easily sell more lifetime in Japan than any PS system), but isn't it a bit much to argue that Switch Lite is a home console? Or is it me that's missing Switch being on pace to set the record anyway without Switch Lite numbers?

I'm very curious to see how PS5 does in Japan. Doubtless it will get all the big AAA franchises by default, like Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Final Fantasy, etc, but then so did the PS4, and while PS4 has done pretty well in Japan, its starting to look like it might fall short of PS3 lifetime. If so, will PS5 continue this downward trend since the PS2, or break it?

I don't see why it wouldn't continue the downward sales of dedicated home consoles. Mobile gaming is growing at an excessive rate in Japan.

As Newzoo puts it (link): "The Japanese gaming market is now nearly the same size as North America’s with roughly one-third of the number of gamers. In fact, Japanese gamers spend most of any country, particularly for mobile games."

Sony's Fate/Grand Order continues to be the top grossing mobile game worldwide largely due to Japan.