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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Alternate history, 7th gen: Clash of the HD dreadnaughts

 

What do you think would've been the outcome?

Nintendo would still have won 1 4.76%
 
PS3 would've won 12 57.14%
 
Xbox 360 would've won 8 38.10%
 
Total:21
curl-6 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I think it would have been about a 3 way tie, although I'll give the edge to Sony, since that is what actually happened between Sony vs. Microsoft.  Here are some factors to consider:

-As others have said, Nintendo does not get most of its new customer base that it would have gotten from Wii. 
-I agree with Bofferbrauer2 that the Virtual Console was something of a selling point, and "Wii HD" would still have brought in some old school gamers like myself.  
-Nintendo launches at a $300/$350 price tag means it is the cheapest HD console on the market.  That gives it something of an advantage as well.
-Third party companies were gradually transitioning to making their games multiplatform.  Microsoft was the main company championing this, but Nintendo would get some of the benefit.  This means that the "Wii HD" would have had a better third party library than the Gamecube, but not as good as PS3 & XBox360.  (Take the average of the Gamecube and PS3 library sizes and that is a decent estimate of the "Wii HD" library, and then add in Virtual Console games.)

In the end I think Nintendo steals a very large chunk of the XBox360 audience in NA, and it also steals a decent amount from Sony in Europe in Japan.  The "Wii HD" sells to 3 groups: 1) Gamecube fans who stay loyal to Nintendo, 2) People who just want the cheapest HD console (a huge selling point for the XBox360 originally), 3) old school gamers who return for the Virtual Console.  Put that all together and I think Nintendo sells about as much as XBox360 and PS3.  Perhaps they all sell about 60-65m each, and again I give Sony the edge.

Also, given the lack of a $250 console that appeals to new gamers, I'd say DS sales go up about 10m, which would end up putting the DS above the PS2 in lifetime sales.   

The Xbox 360 had a $300 USD SKU from launch, so Nintendo wouldn't have had any price advantage there.Well, that thread remains open and you are more than welcome to use it to speculate about the long term ramifications beyond Gen 5. ;)

I forgot about that version of the XBox360, because it didn't have a hard drive.  Even if that is what you meant for the $300 Wii HD, then the $350 version would be the cheapest version with a hard drive.  Wii HD still has a price advantage in this situation.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

The Xbox 360 had a $300 USD SKU from launch, so Nintendo wouldn't have had any price advantage there.Well, that thread remains open and you are more than welcome to use it to speculate about the long term ramifications beyond Gen 5. ;)

I forgot about that version of the XBox360, because it didn't have a hard drive.  Even if that is what you meant for the $300 Wii HD, then the $350 version would be the cheapest version with a hard drive.  Wii HD still has a price advantage in this situation.

Based on the patterns we did see with Wii and Wii U though, even the $350 model would likely have only a small amount of flash storage. So I'm not sure the price advantage would help much. In the gen before, we saw Gamecube retail at just $100 less than two years after its release, yet still sell very poorly.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I forgot about that version of the XBox360, because it didn't have a hard drive.  Even if that is what you meant for the $300 Wii HD, then the $350 version would be the cheapest version with a hard drive.  Wii HD still has a price advantage in this situation.

Based on the patterns we did see with Wii and Wii U though, even the $350 model would likely have only a small amount of flash storage. So I'm not sure the price advantage would help much. In the gen before, we saw Gamecube retail at just $100 less than two years after its release, yet still sell very poorly.

For Wii U, the $300 model had 8GB, while the $350 had 32 GB.  That can be a very big difference if games require a 2-4 GB install in order to play.  For the XBox 360, the Core model had 256 MB at launch while the Pro had 20 GB.  That is a pretty big difference in storage.  I'm not even sure what you could play on the XBox360 with only 256 MB.  I would think most people would need to buy a bigger hard drive for their XBox360 if they wanted to use it as their dedicated console.  I owned a PS3, and I know I played a lot of games that required an install that was bigger than 256 MB.

For both the XBox360 and our theoretical "Wii HD" the more expensive version would basically be the "real version" of the console.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

Based on the patterns we did see with Wii and Wii U though, even the $350 model would likely have only a small amount of flash storage. So I'm not sure the price advantage would help much. In the gen before, we saw Gamecube retail at just $100 less than two years after its release, yet still sell very poorly.

For Wii U, the $300 model had 8GB, while the $350 had 32 GB.  That can be a very big difference if games require a 2-4 GB install in order to play.  For the XBox 360, the Core model had 256 MB at launch while the Pro had 20 GB.  That is a pretty big difference in storage.  I'm not even sure what you could play on the XBox360 with only 256 MB.  I would think most people would need to buy a bigger hard drive for their XBox360 if they wanted to use it as their dedicated console.  I owned a PS3, and I know I played a lot of games that required an install that was bigger than 256 MB.

For both the XBox360 and our theoretical "Wii HD" the more expensive version would basically be the "real version" of the console.

Realistically you probably would've needed a hard drive to get much use out of even the expensive one though, just like you pretty much needed one for the Wii U and Switch. Nintendo have always been very stingy with internal storage. The historical Wii had what, 500MB of internal flash memory?

Last edited by curl-6 - on 20 August 2019

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

I think Nintendo could win, but they wouldn't sell 101 million. More like 90 million.

It's dependent on first-party. If Nintendo sucks at getting HD games out in the first two years, they might be in trouble. The price will help a lot, since it would still be cheaper than its competitors. But from a tech standpoint, it's a less unique console. I voted that Nintendo would win, but it's a big if. Have Virtual Console from the start like in real life, and get some killer first party apps out in the first year-and-a-half.

I don't think I've seen anyone say that Japanese developers would absolutely be flocking to Nintendo in this case. With the PS3 lagging behind, why not put a lot of 3rd party exclusives on Nintendo's HD platform?



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 125 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 122 mil (was 100 then 130 million) Xbox One: 50 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

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curl-6 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

For Wii U, the $300 model had 8GB, while the $350 had 32 GB.  That can be a very big difference if games require a 2-4 GB install in order to play.  For the XBox 360, the Core model had 256 MB at launch while the Pro had 20 GB.  That is a pretty big difference in storage.  I'm not even sure what you could play on the XBox360 with only 256 MB.  I would think most people would need to buy a bigger hard drive for their XBox360 if they wanted to use it as their dedicated console.  I owned a PS3, and I know I played a lot of games that required an install that was bigger than 256 MB.

For both the XBox360 and our theoretical "Wii HD" the more expensive version would basically be the "real version" of the console.

Realistically you probably would've needed a hard drive to get much use out of even the expensive one though, just like you pretty much needed one for the Wii U and Switch. Nintendo have always been very stingy with internal storage. The historical Wii had what, 500MB of internal flash memory?

It is possible to get by with 20 GB on a PS3, and I'm sure the same is true with an XBox360.  You really can't get by with just 256 MB.  Quite a few games require an installation that is greater than 256 MB.  On the other hand, I've never had problems with gigantic installs from Nintendo first party games.  I've never even had to delete anything off of my Wii, Wii U or Switch.  It's not an issue.  When it comes to storage 10 GB on a Nintendo console goes much farther than 20 GB on a Microsoft or Sony console.

This is another reason why a $350 "Wii HD" would be a better value than the $400 XBox360 at launch.  Effectively you would get more storage space, since Nintendo uses their storage a lot more efficiently.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

Realistically you probably would've needed a hard drive to get much use out of even the expensive one though, just like you pretty much needed one for the Wii U and Switch. Nintendo have always been very stingy with internal storage. The historical Wii had what, 500MB of internal flash memory?

It is possible to get by with 20 GB on a PS3, and I'm sure the same is true with an XBox360.  You really can't get by with just 256 MB.  Quite a few games require an installation that is greater than 256 MB.  On the other hand, I've never had problems with gigantic installs from Nintendo first party games.  I've never even had to delete anything off of my Wii, Wii U or Switch.  It's not an issue.  When it comes to storage 10 GB on a Nintendo console goes much farther than 20 GB on a Microsoft or Sony console.

This is another reason why a $350 "Wii HD" would be a better value than the $400 XBox360 at launch.  Effectively you would get more storage space, since Nintendo uses their storage a lot more efficiently.

Maybe not for you, but storage on both Wii U and Switch was totally inadequate for me as an owner of both, I've had to expand both by purchasing hard drives/SD cards. I expect most serious gamers will not be able to make do with the paltry internal memory Nintendo tends to offer, which in 2006 would've been even less than they provided 6 years later with Wii U due to memory costing more back then.

And again, a cut to just $100 less than two years in didn't save Gamecube from third place, so even if a price advantage is perceived by some customers, I don't think it would make a significant difference to sales.

Add in Nintendo's struggles with HD development as we saw on Wii U, resulting in crippling droughts of system-selling software, and I expect a traditional HD Gen 7 console from Nintendo would've been lucky to outsell the Gamecube.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 21 August 2019

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

The Wii was a gimmick that boomed with casuals, kids and elderly homes. It was a stroke of genius in terms of what they did (sell a roided GC, with cheap motion controls and make tons of money). Had they gone HD they would have faced a similar uphill battle as they did before because knowing Nintendo: they would have gone with a strange media format, would have lagged behind in online gaming, and still would have had a difficult relationship with 3rd parties... Mario and Zelda would have been great though.



curl-6 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

It is possible to get by with 20 GB on a PS3, and I'm sure the same is true with an XBox360.  You really can't get by with just 256 MB.  Quite a few games require an installation that is greater than 256 MB.  On the other hand, I've never had problems with gigantic installs from Nintendo first party games.  I've never even had to delete anything off of my Wii, Wii U or Switch.  It's not an issue.  When it comes to storage 10 GB on a Nintendo console goes much farther than 20 GB on a Microsoft or Sony console.

This is another reason why a $350 "Wii HD" would be a better value than the $400 XBox360 at launch.  Effectively you would get more storage space, since Nintendo uses their storage a lot more efficiently.

Maybe not for you, but storage on both Wii U and Switch was totally inadequate for me as an owner of both, I've had to expand both by purchasing hard drives/SD cards. I expect most serious gamers will not be able to make do with the paltry internal memory Nintendo tends to offer, which in 2006 would've been even less than they provided 6 years later with Wii U due to memory costing more back then.

And again, a cut to just $100 less than two years in didn't save Gamecube from third place, so even if a price advantage is perceived by some customers, I don't think it would make a significant difference to sales.

Add in Nintendo's struggles with HD development as we saw on Wii U, resulting in crippling droughts of system-selling software, and I expect a traditional HD Gen 7 console from Nintendo would've been lucky to outsell the Gamecube.

1) Some people will get by on less HD space.  These people would prefer the "Wii HD" at $350.  Again I am saying that Wii HD would appeal to budget consumers who wouldn't need the biggest hard drive available anyway.

2) Gamecube and XBox both trailed far behind PS2.  XBox360 faired much better, because it had a lot more multiplat games from third parties.  A Wii HD would get most of the same multiplats.  Price advantage would help Wii HD, even though it didn't help Gamecube, because a Wii HD would have a lot more multiplat games just like the XBox360 did.  Basically Wii HD would get many of the same advantages that XBox360 got.  The Wii HD would not end up like the Gamecube, because the XBox360 did not end up like the XBox.

3) Slow releases plagued PS3 and third party devs throughout generation 7.  Wii HD would be in the same boat as the other consoles.  Wii HD is very different from the Wii U, because it wouldn't be a generation behind.  Given, I still don't think Nintendo would win, but I think it would be a close 3-way tie with Sony getting the advantage in the end.  (Instead of the 2-way tie that we actually got between Sony and Microsoft.)



The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

Maybe not for you, but storage on both Wii U and Switch was totally inadequate for me as an owner of both, I've had to expand both by purchasing hard drives/SD cards. I expect most serious gamers will not be able to make do with the paltry internal memory Nintendo tends to offer, which in 2006 would've been even less than they provided 6 years later with Wii U due to memory costing more back then.

And again, a cut to just $100 less than two years in didn't save Gamecube from third place, so even if a price advantage is perceived by some customers, I don't think it would make a significant difference to sales.

Add in Nintendo's struggles with HD development as we saw on Wii U, resulting in crippling droughts of system-selling software, and I expect a traditional HD Gen 7 console from Nintendo would've been lucky to outsell the Gamecube.

1) Some people will get by on less HD space.  These people would prefer the "Wii HD" at $350.  Again I am saying that Wii HD would appeal to budget consumers who wouldn't need the biggest hard drive available anyway.

2) Gamecube and XBox both trailed far behind PS2.  XBox360 faired much better, because it had a lot more multiplat games from third parties.  A Wii HD would get most of the same multiplats.  Price advantage would help Wii HD, even though it didn't help Gamecube, because a Wii HD would have a lot more multiplat games just like the XBox360 did.  Basically Wii HD would get many of the same advantages that XBox360 got.  The Wii HD would not end up like the Gamecube, because the XBox360 did not end up like the XBox.

3) Slow releases plagued PS3 and third party devs throughout generation 7.  Wii HD would be in the same boat as the other consoles.  Wii HD is very different from the Wii U, because it wouldn't be a generation behind.  Given, I still don't think Nintendo would win, but I think it would be a close 3-way tie with Sony getting the advantage in the end.  (Instead of the 2-way tie that we actually got between Sony and Microsoft.)

Gamecube was also power competitive, had a price advantage, and got multiplats. None of that saved it from selling 22 million lifetime. I don't see any reason why a HD successor wouldn't sell similarly.

360 had key advantages over the Xbox that made it sell better, (the explosion of online play, appealing to lost Playstation customers) I'm not giving Gamecube 2 any significant advantages GameCube didn't have, in fact I'm giving it less by inserting the delays and subsequent droughts caused by adapting to HD development.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 22 August 2019

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.