20m+. Animal Crossing is a juggernaut now, people are starving for a new game, it's been six years since the last entry at this point. This is going to be a huge seller with never-ending legs for Switch, a system-seller the likes of Smash and Pokemon. Mark my words.
No way a $60 Animal Crossing game is doing over 15M.
I don't think the $60 is going to impact anyone. For starters, $60 isn't valued at what it was when games started being sold for that amount due to inflation.
Let's compare the evergreen 3ds games to the evergreen Switch ones using VGC numbers currently in the database when you look each of these games up (this will save me time from having to find articles with official numbers):
Super Mario 3d Land - 11.56 million (15.5% attach ratio) Super Mario Odyssey - 11.71 million (34% attach ratio)
Mario Kart 7 - 15.49 million (20.5% attach ratio) Mario Kart 8 delux - 13.05 million (38% attach ratio)
Animal Crossing New Leaf - 10.9 million (14.6% attach ratio) Animal Crossing Switch (29%???)
I think, based on this, that Animal Crossing Switch will at least double in attachment ratio what it sold on 3ds based on how Odyssey and Kart 8 delux performed. Honestly, the ceiling is higher because it won't be a re-release like 8 delux was to 8 (plenty of people that owned 8 on Wii U, which did really well itself, did not buy 8 delux, yet it still has done amazingly). Switch attachment rates are just off the charts, and that won't change with New Leaf. If we double the attachment rate conservatively to 29% what the Switch install base is right now, that puts Animal Crossing Switch sales at 9.8 million, but if we project the Switch hardware to be at least double what it currently is when its all said and done, I think Animal Crossing Switch will shatter 15 million and will easily reach 20 million sales based on this data. The question should be whether or not it hits 25 million, and of that I'm more skeptical.