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Machiavellian said:

Actually reading that article, the house does not disagree with Sundin its pretty much the same situation.  The Dems are looking for ways to do the increase where they do not have to worry about GOP votes but they would still need to get every Dem vote within the Senate to still pass any bill with a federal wage increase of 15 dollars by 2025.  Also I believe you are not understand Sundin and what he is saying.  In politics there are many ways to get to a goal but not all of them use a stick to beat their way there. Either way, nothing is still set.  You will still have to convince all senate Dems that increasing the Minumin wage to 15 by 2025 is the move to make especially if some of those senators are up in 2022 because if they are there from more conservative states, they may not move forward depending on how these changes fit with their constitutes.  It really do not matter how you feel about the situation, its still politics.  To gain the majority in the Senate only to lose it in 2 years is something that will be in play whether you like it or not.  Its how the game is played.

Joe Manchin is literally the only member of the Democratic Caucus in the Senate voicing opposition to raising the minimum wage and he's not up for election again until 2024, by which point presumably most of the proposed minimum wage increase would already be in effect.

More pointedly, the party of a sitting president almost never gains seats on balance in midterm elections. The number of times they have has been like three or four out of the last 90 years. So I mean just based on that history, the odds overwhelmingly suggest that the Democrats will probably lose at least one chamber of Congress in next year's midterm elections rather than improving on their current standing. Among the easiest ways I can think of to make that historical likelihood a surefire reality is to start breaking your campaign promises to the working class people who compose the majority of your voter base, thus supplying them with no convincing reason to bother voting for you again in the future. You see, to the minds of real people, the Democratic Party exists to serve its voters, NOT the other way around.

So yeah, being as this right here is realistically the best chance the Democrats will have to pass a minimum wage increase this decade, being as 61% of Americans support raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour and an even larger 68% support a version of the coronavirus relief package being planned that includes such an increase (that last point indicating that including the wage hike in the bill would NOT harm political careers), and being as there is only one Democrat in the Senate opposed thereto -- a Senator, mind you, NOT up for re-election next year -- I am personally for ratcheting up the pressure on Senator Manchin to vote in favor of a relief package that includes the increase.

I would also point out that in the survey linked above, you will notice that a $15/hour minimum wage enjoys more support than President Biden does (61% versus 49% in the same poll.). I would encourage those of you opposing a minimum wage increase in the name of political advantage to think for a couple of seconds about that math.

Last edited by Jaicee - on 09 February 2021

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Jaicee said:
Machiavellian said:

Actually reading that article, the house does not disagree with Sundin its pretty much the same situation.  The Dems are looking for ways to do the increase where they do not have to worry about GOP votes but they would still need to get every Dem vote within the Senate to still pass any bill with a federal wage increase of 15 dollars by 2025.  Also I believe you are not understand Sundin and what he is saying.  In politics there are many ways to get to a goal but not all of them use a stick to beat their way there. Either way, nothing is still set.  You will still have to convince all senate Dems that increasing the Minumin wage to 15 by 2025 is the move to make especially if some of those senators are up in 2022 because if they are there from more conservative states, they may not move forward depending on how these changes fit with their constitutes.  It really do not matter how you feel about the situation, its still politics.  To gain the majority in the Senate only to lose it in 2 years is something that will be in play whether you like it or not.  Its how the game is played.

Joe Manchin is literally the only member of the Democratic Caucus in the Senate voicing opposition to raising the minimum wage and he's not up for election again until 2024, by which point presumably most of the proposed minimum wage increase would already be in effect.

More pointedly, the party of a sitting president almost never gains seats on balance in midterm elections. The number of times they have has been like three or four out of the last 90 years. So I mean just based on that history, the odds overwhelmingly suggest that the Democrats will probably lose at least one chamber of Congress in next year's midterm elections rather than improving on their current standing. Among the easiest ways I can think of to make that historical likelihood a surefire reality is to start breaking your campaign promises to the working class people who compose the majority of your voter base, thus supplying them with no convincing reason to bother voting for you again in the future. You see, to the minds of real people, the Democratic Party exists to serve its voters, NOT the other way around.

So yeah, being as this right here is realistically the best chance the Democrats will have to pass a minimum wage increase this decade, being as 61% of Americans support raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour and an even larger 68% support a version of the coronavirus relief package being planned that includes such an increase (that last point indicating that including the wage hike in the bill would NOT harm political careers), and being as there is only one Democrat in the Senate opposed thereto -- a Senator, mind you, NOT up for re-election next year -- I am personally for ratcheting up the pressure on Senator Manchin to vote in favor of a relief package that includes the increase.

I would also point out that in the survey linked above, you will notice that a $15/hour minimum wage enjoys more support than President Biden does (61% versus 49% in the same poll.). I would encourage those of you opposing a minimum wage increase in the name of political advantage to think for a couple of seconds about that math.

Doesn't really matter if 61% of Americans support raising the minimum wage, it would need to be 61% in the states where any particular Senator represent in order for that to be a home run.  As far as a Senator is concerned, National means nothing unless the state they represent also favors the same.  Anyway we are still at the same point where it will take every Dem Senator vote to get this passed even if its gets passed through reconciliation, so Joe Manchin still have a lot of swing power to pull no matter what.

Also, from what I have seen, no one is opposing a minimum wage increase, instead its the language of the bill.  Even Joe is not opposing a minimum wage increase its the amount and specifically when and how.  What I believe you do not understand is that its still politics and if you want to get things done now, then nothing at all, some compromise will need to be made and right now the person the Dems need to get on board is Joe.  Without Joe, nothings gets done no matter what the national average is because his vote matters.



Machiavellian said:
 

Doesn't really matter if 61% of Americans support raising the minimum wage, it would need to be 61% in the states where any particular Senator represent in order for that to be a home run.  As far as a Senator is concerned, National means nothing unless the state they represent also favors the same.  Anyway we are still at the same point where it will take every Dem Senator vote to get this passed even if its gets passed through reconciliation, so Joe Manchin still have a lot of swing power to pull no matter what.

Also, from what I have seen, no one is opposing a minimum wage increase, instead its the language of the bill.  Even Joe is not opposing a minimum wage increase its the amount and specifically when and how.  What I believe you do not understand is that its still politics and if you want to get things done now, then nothing at all, some compromise will need to be made and right now the person the Dems need to get on board is Joe.  Without Joe, nothings gets done no matter what the national average is because his vote matters.

Conversely, what I don't think you see here are the real human beings at the other end of this process. You just see process, not people.

Compromise is for something other than my ability to eat and pay bills. It's for frills like $360 billion in mostly needless aid to state and local governments that have barely seen any revenue drop from COVID-19. I don't see any Democrats budging on that, but with my ability to afford the cost of living they're willing to play games.



Jaicee said:
sundin13 said:

Okay, that is largely what I expected and unfortunately there seems to be a lot of confusion about this point, to the extent that it seems like every news outlet is reporting that it means something different. From what I can tell, that amendment effectively means nothing. It gives the chair of the Senate Budget Committee the power to strike out any increases to $15 throughout the pandemic. There are two issues with that: The first is that the chair of the Senate Budget Committee is Bernie Sanders, so it seems unlikely that he would use that power. The second is that nobody had proposed an increase to $15 during the pandemic. To quote the article that you posted:

"In a surprise, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., supported Ernst’s amendment, which is nonbinding. He spoke on the amendment to clarify that his plan, detailed in the Raise the Wage Act, is to gradually raise the federal minimum wage to reach $15 an hour in 2025 — not immediately increase wages during the pandemic.

'I will support this amendment because nobody is talking about doubling the federal minimum wage during the pandemic,” he said. “We’re talking about gradually phasing it in over a five-year period.'"

To my eyes, this reads as nothing more than political theater than can mostly be ignored, but like I said, a lot of confusion on this topic so I could be wrong.

As to your second point, it seems to be an...interesting strategy. Just trying to bully Manchin into supporting it because it is included in the bigger bill seems like it would greatly increase the risk of catastrophic failure of the bill and an implosion of the Democratic party. I can't say I can really agree to that. If we can't get Manchin on board, telling him to go fuck himself and then losing the vote seems to be suicidal more than anything. 

As for whether it could pass in the future, there is a midterm in 2022 where the Democrats could gain seats in the Senate allowing them to not have to worry about Manchin's objections, but that seems entirely impossible if they torpedo the relief bill now. As previously stated, as minimum wage increases are gradual, if we pass an $11 minimum wage now, we provide the same immediate relief that would be in the $15 bill, with a chance to ride the momentum to a greater increase after 2022. To me, that seems like a much better strategy than attempting to bully moderate democrats.

Fortunately, the House of Representatives appears to disagree with your sentiment, as, at the insistence of the House Progressive Caucus, a $15/hour minimum wage increase reappeared in the Education and Labor Committee's first draft of their part of the COVID-19 relief bill earlier today (Monday), three days after the Senate dropped the minimum wage increase from their planning of the legislation and after President Biden said that he didn't expect the minimum wage hike to be included in the final bill. So it's back in the bill now, in other words.

The House earlier today also rejected Joe Manchin's proposal to reduce the maximum income threshold for $1,400 stimulus checks from households with 2019 incomes of $75,000 a year to only those with 2019 household incomes of $50,000 a year or less because, as House Progressive Caucus Chairwoman Pramila Jayapal has pointed out, 2019 was before the recession and as such doesn't come close to gauging what someone's economic status might be today (which is a good point that has convinced me there should be no eligibility cut relative to previous relief packages).

I find these new developments more reassuring, personally.

While you may be comfortable waiting another two years to see if Democrats win more Congressional seats in 2022 for the minimum wage debate, I'm not because it's my stomach! Do you know what it's like to go hungry? It's not fun and I'm tired of experiencing that quite as often as I do. I'm tired of relying on charity and government aid and the woods for food. I'm tired of not being able to pay bills on time, of watching the tiles fall off the wall of my shower, of seeing the cracks in my walls and windows just keep getting larger and larger, of washing my clothes and dishes by hand when most Americans have washers, dryers, and dishwashers, of fighting to start the car engine in the mornings. I'm sorry you don't like my swearing, but I'm just fucking sick of living like this! I work my goddamn ass off! Maybe it's egotistical of me, considering the kind of work that I do, but I can't help feeling that service workers deserve some kind of dignity too. Simple stuff like a pay increase (that I guarantee my employer ain't supplyin' voluntarily despite this having been their most profitable year ever) can make a world of difference and this is the only way I see that happening for me and it can't happen soon enough! That's all I'm saying. Sorry for prioritizing working people's actual human needs over parliamentary maneuvering. And I'm sorry for saying rude things about Joe Manchin. I just find it hard to respect millionaire Senators who don't respect people like me.

It is these kinds of oversimplified takes that drive me crazy. 

For one, I support the measures by the House to include these things in their bill. Of course they should. The House isn't the Senate. The House should pass the best version of the bill that they can pass and the Senate should do the same. Then, the reconciliation process begins. 

What I don't agree with is playing a game of chicken over this bill. Democrats should use every tool at their disposal to get moderate senators on board, however, you have to acknowledge that taking a hardline stance against negotiation is a "No" vote for $1400 checks, expanded unemployment and a wealth of other benefits for the American people. While you may have the stomach to look at the millions of people who are starving in the country and say "just hold on a little longer and maybe we'll pass this bill", I don't. I believe that immediate relief is the single most important responsibility of the government right now. Even if it isn't perfect, it will keep food on the table for families for a little while longer. You talk a big game about the horrors of going hungry, but you are the one arguing in favor of voting "No" on immediate relief. How do you reconcile those contradictions? I understand your principles, and I understand the importance of increasing the minimum wage, but like I stated, minimum wage increases are a long term solution. Long term solutions are great, but they don't get food on the table today. Any minimum wage bill will be gradual. Take a look at the Raise the Wage Act 2021. The minimum wage is set to rise to $11.00 in 2022. If we accept Joe Manchin's theoretical proposal of an $11 minimum wage, it is likely that the minimum wage will be set to rise to $11.00 in 2022. That means that we get the same exact immediate relief this year, and we get the same exact relief next year, and the year after that we will have a new Senate who, if we don't fuck up this bill, is decently likely to lean more blue. 

You may talk a big game about "prioritizing workers", but what you are advocating for does nothing but hurt people today.

Again, Democrats should use all tools at their disposal to make this bill the best it can be other than voting "No" if it doesn't check every single box on their wishlist. Americans need relief now and whether you like it or not, that may just mean compromise.



Jaicee said:
Machiavellian said:

Doesn't really matter if 61% of Americans support raising the minimum wage, it would need to be 61% in the states where any particular Senator represent in order for that to be a home run.  As far as a Senator is concerned, National means nothing unless the state they represent also favors the same.  Anyway we are still at the same point where it will take every Dem Senator vote to get this passed even if its gets passed through reconciliation, so Joe Manchin still have a lot of swing power to pull no matter what.

Also, from what I have seen, no one is opposing a minimum wage increase, instead its the language of the bill.  Even Joe is not opposing a minimum wage increase its the amount and specifically when and how.  What I believe you do not understand is that its still politics and if you want to get things done now, then nothing at all, some compromise will need to be made and right now the person the Dems need to get on board is Joe.  Without Joe, nothings gets done no matter what the national average is because his vote matters.

Conversely, what I don't think you see here are the real human beings at the other end of this process. You just see process, not people.

Compromise is for something other than my ability to eat and pay bills. It's for frills like $360 billion in mostly needless aid to state and local governments that have barely seen any revenue drop from COVID-19. I don't see any Democrats budging on that, but with my ability to afford the cost of living they're willing to play games.

Why would it matter if I see real human beings or not.  What matter is what can be done. This is the reality.  I am not in Congress but I do understand that no amount of humanity will suddenly make people change the way they think or view the situation.  Its either compromise or nothing because what you are stating is nothing.  You give me a good reason why Joe is going to change his vote because you believe a no compromise lean from other Senators will make him see the light.  You tell me how the Dems will get a single vote from the GOP if no compromise lean by the Dems in the Senate.  This is the reality when you pretty much have a 50/50 split with only one deciding vote.  I am not sure if you are really being realistic.



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Phoenix20 said:

The politics of fear and hate, divide and conquer, us versus them was magnified under the chaotic Presidency of Donald Trump. It will take a long time to recover from Trump's chaos. President Biden is a uniter, a Nation builder and brings hope to America.

This sounds like some 1984 propaganda, I shit you not. 

Remember: politicians are public servants and we musn't let them forget what "servant" means. 



Machiavellian said:
Jaicee said:

Conversely, what I don't think you see here are the real human beings at the other end of this process. You just see process, not people.

Compromise is for something other than my ability to eat and pay bills. It's for frills like $360 billion in mostly needless aid to state and local governments that have barely seen any revenue drop from COVID-19. I don't see any Democrats budging on that, but with my ability to afford the cost of living they're willing to play games.

Why would it matter if I see real human beings or not.  What matter is what can be done. This is the reality.  I am not in Congress but I do understand that no amount of humanity will suddenly make people change the way they think or view the situation.  Its either compromise or nothing because what you are stating is nothing.  You give me a good reason why Joe is going to change his vote because you believe a no compromise lean from other Senators will make him see the light.  You tell me how the Dems will get a single vote from the GOP if no compromise lean by the Dems in the Senate.  This is the reality when you pretty much have a 50/50 split with only one deciding vote.  I am not sure if you are really being realistic.

It's the "Moderates" mantra..."What you're wanting isn't realistic", "It's compromise or nothing, "Don't try and change things too fast or it wont happen", "don't alienate the Reps"

Socialists like Bernie and others pushed even in the face of the Moderate mantra and Rep talking points from Est. Dems and Est. Media just like the one's your using now, and now we are in a place were many of these things that socialists and majority of the people want are now getting serious support

As for any hold out senator in the Dems not doing the right thing, Bernie had a plan for them, go into their state and send advert after advert about the issue the senator is blocking and see how that works out for them with their constituency, let the people decide what should be done once they know the facts and how there own senator is acting, even put up an alternate Dem candidate when the time is opportune, be very open about what you will do, force the bastards out, or force the bastards to change :/    

  

Last edited by Rab - on 10 February 2021

Rab said:
Machiavellian said:

Why would it matter if I see real human beings or not.  What matter is what can be done. This is the reality.  I am not in Congress but I do understand that no amount of humanity will suddenly make people change the way they think or view the situation.  Its either compromise or nothing because what you are stating is nothing.  You give me a good reason why Joe is going to change his vote because you believe a no compromise lean from other Senators will make him see the light.  You tell me how the Dems will get a single vote from the GOP if no compromise lean by the Dems in the Senate.  This is the reality when you pretty much have a 50/50 split with only one deciding vote.  I am not sure if you are really being realistic.

It's the "Moderates" mantra..."What you're wanting isn't realistic", "It's compromise or nothing, "Don't try and change things too fast or it wont happen", "don't alienate the Reps"

Socialists like Bernie and others pushed even in the face of the Moderate mantra and Rep talking points from Est. Dems and Est. Media just like the one's your using now, and now we are in a place were many of these things that socialists and majority of the people want are now getting serious support

As for any hold out senator in the Dems not doing the right thing, Bernie had a plan for them, go into their state and send advert after advert about the issue the senator is blocking and see how that works out for them with their constituency, let the people decide what should be done once they know the facts and how there own senator is acting, even put up an alternate Dem candidate when the time is opportune, be very open about what you will do, force the bastards out, or force the bastards to change :/    

  

Same thing for you, let me know how you are going to change votes you need to pass a bill if you do not work with the other side.  You can keep all the high and mighty ideals all day long and do absolutely nothing when it comes to politics because votes matter not ideals.  You can tell the masses that you tried but when nothing happens for some reason you believe just because the majority is on your side it matters.  How many socialistic policy actually has been done, you still need 60 votes for the majority of them and you still need to get pass moderate Dems.  What you are not understanding is that politics will never be a situation you can get everything you want but instead you need to choose things you can successfully achieve first then lobby for others and find ways and deals that move you forward.

You bring up a great point.  Bernie pushed and what exact policy has he accomplished in all his years.  He could not get pass Hillary and he didn't even come close to getting pass Biden.  I am not even sure you were paying attention.  Also even if he was able to be president, exactly how would he actually get anything done when he cannot even get his own party to cooperate let alone the GOP.

As to the last point, if going into a state with adverts was successful, Trump would not be sitting with 74 million votes.  The main reason why a senator will swing one way or the other is because in their state it does not reflect national average.  Man I live on right wing sites and I can tell you one very simple thing, your way of thinking is totally opposite from how they think and that would include the moderate Dem as well.  



Rab said:

As for any hold out senator in the Dems not doing the right thing, Bernie had a plan for them, go into their state and send advert after advert about the issue the senator is blocking and see how that works out for them with their constituency, let the people decide what should be done once they know the facts and how there own senator is acting, even put up an alternate Dem candidate when the time is opportune, be very open about what you will do, force the bastards out, or force the bastards to change :/     

Maybe you not familiar with West Virginia but I can Guarantee you if they had successfully primary Joe Manchin out in 2018 that right now the republicans would be in control of the senate 49-51 and that absolutely nothing would be getting done over the next 2 years.

You may be frustrated with Joe Machin but he is the only democrat that can win in west VA so until the Democrats can win in enough areas that they don't need his vote they stuck with negotiating with him because negotiating with Joe Machin is still a million times better then doing it with republicans.

 



Machiavellian said:
Rab said:

It's the "Moderates" mantra..."What you're wanting isn't realistic", "It's compromise or nothing, "Don't try and change things too fast or it wont happen", "don't alienate the Reps"

Socialists like Bernie and others pushed even in the face of the Moderate mantra and Rep talking points from Est. Dems and Est. Media just like the one's your using now, and now we are in a place were many of these things that socialists and majority of the people want are now getting serious support

As for any hold out senator in the Dems not doing the right thing, Bernie had a plan for them, go into their state and send advert after advert about the issue the senator is blocking and see how that works out for them with their constituency, let the people decide what should be done once they know the facts and how there own senator is acting, even put up an alternate Dem candidate when the time is opportune, be very open about what you will do, force the bastards out, or force the bastards to change :/    

  

Same thing for you, let me know how you are going to change votes you need to pass a bill if you do not work with the other side.  You can keep all the high and mighty ideals all day long and do absolutely nothing when it comes to politics because votes matter not ideals.  You can tell the masses that you tried but when nothing happens for some reason you believe just because the majority is on your side it matters.  How many socialistic policy actually has been done, you still need 60 votes for the majority of them and you still need to get pass moderate Dems.  What you are not understanding is that politics will never be a situation you can get everything you want but instead you need to choose things you can successfully achieve first then lobby for others and find ways and deals that move you forward.

You bring up a great point.  Bernie pushed and what exact policy has he accomplished in all his years.  He could not get pass Hillary and he didn't even come close to getting pass Biden.  I am not even sure you were paying attention.  Also even if he was able to be president, exactly how would he actually get anything done when he cannot even get his own party to cooperate let alone the GOP.

As to the last point, if going into a state with adverts was successful, Trump would not be sitting with 74 million votes.  The main reason why a senator will swing one way or the other is because in their state it does not reflect national average.  Man I live on right wing sites and I can tell you one very simple thing, your way of thinking is totally opposite from how they think and that would include the moderate Dem as well.  

It's just the same cop out speak as other moderates have come up with that has got the working poor no where for decades 

Bernie's movement has made progress in getting his ideas into the mainstream despite constant resistance from the "moderates" in the Dems blocking his progressive ideas at every step, but he has persisted and even now some of those moderates are reluctantly moving forward like Biden, without Bernie's dedication God knows what progress would have happened by now, my guess is nothing but the status quo for decades to come 

Your last point about why Trumps ideas even with canvasing didn't do so well so therefore progressive ideas being pushed will also fail is sadly missing the point and is a classic case of moderate thinking 

Good ideas like M4A, Green New Deal, Higher minimum wages, Free college to name a few, are not compatible with ideas like building a wall to keep Mexicans out, dismantling environmental protections for oil and gas giants, tax breaks for the rich to name just a few   

Most progressives have confidence that if people are made aware of the actually polices and how it compares to their local senators voting record they will make the right choice

Making compromises and not actually getting anything done over decades of compromises is the moderate Dem way, the get nothing done for workers Dems

Bernie has a plan to deal with those senators that refuse to budge by involving the people to clearly speak up to their local senator once exposed by huge ad campaigns exposing them, the comprised way of the Rep lites (Est. Dems) have made lives for the working poor worse for decades, for Christ sake try something different