So, this was based on the idea that was presented in the video below:
This video goes over the rumors that have run rampant about Donald Trump potentially splitting away from the GOP and starting his own political party. What the author of this video calls "the Patriot Party." And he goes over the impact that would have on the political landscape and why Democrats should encourage Trump to do so. He bases his claims off a poll he found that asked the question: "If Trump left the Republican Party and formed the Patriot Party, in the 2024 Election who would you be likely to vote for the Republican candidate, the Democratic candidate, the Patriot candidate, or some other type of candidate?"
And the results were VERY eye-brow raising to say the least.
Democrat - 46%
Patriot (Trump) - 23%
Republican - 17%
Other - 14%
Assuming this poll is 100% accurate, if Trump actually went through with it and decided to leave, he would take a very sizable chunk, approximately 57.5% of the GOP with him to form this new party. And as I'm sure you can all tell, that would be disastrous for the Republicans. Considering how they've already lost 5 of the last 8 presidential elections. And of the 3 elections they actually won, they only won the popular vote once (2004 - When Bush beat Kerry.) So the Republicans are already at a disadvantage in terms of raw numbers. So, something like this would be essentially a death-sentence for them. But as I was watching this video and listening to what the author had to say, my curiosity was peaked.
"Ok, so that's what would happen on the presidential level. What about the House and the Senate?"
So, I couldn't help myself. I did the nerdy thing and looked up the numbers for the past election, via NBC News.
I looked at the Presidency, the House, and Senate races that were all on the ballot this year, and the margins in which they were won. The margins are depicted as follows:
(Tilt - <1%; Lean - 1-5%; Likely - 5-15%; Safe - >15%)
And in doing so, I was able to find out who won all their respective seats in their parties and by what margins.
(I should note that these numbers use the 2024 Electoral College Map that will be used due to the updated Census.)
2020 U.S. Presidential Map:

2020 House of Representatives Election:

2020 United States Senate Election:

Now this leads me back to Trump and the rumors him starting his own party. As unlikely as it is, personally I don't think he's actually going to go through with it, I think it's just a power play to pressure the GOP into doing what he says - And it's working. But let's say for the sake of this argument, he decided to do it and we'll use this pass election as a basis. He splits away from the Republican party, goes off to start his own party and takes around half the GOP with him. Effectively splitting the party in two. And let's assume those percentages from that poll that is referenced in the video holds true.
The results would be PARADIGM-SHIFTING!!!!!
2020 Presidential Election if Trump ran his own party

2020 House of Representatives Election if Trump ran his own party

2020 United States Senate Election if Trump ran his own party:

The Republican and Patriot distribution is purely based on my own personal hypothesis, I have no actual data or polling numbers to base that off. I just assumed there is a larger portion of far-right wing, Trump voters in states like Idaho, Wyoming, the Dakotas, West Virginia, Alabama, and Mississippi And I just assumed there is a larger portion of moderate, traditional right Republicans in states like Oklahoma, Utah, Tennessee, Florida, and Texas.
But as I was making these maps based on the poll from the video, I couldn't help but break out laughing at various points, thinking to myself: "If his voters actually support this idea, they're fucking morons. Every, last, one of them." For all the talk about 'owning the libs,' sticking it to 'those damn, dirty liberals,' and 'fuck the Dems,' that you hear from the most extreme, far-right Trump voters in groups like QAnon and the Proud Boys. The MAGAts, basically. If Trump actually goes through with this (Which I don't think he will for the reasons I'm about to state.) He is basically GIVING the entire country, the political landscape, the tools, resources, power and most importantly of all, TIME, to dictate and shape the direction of this nation in the near and deep future to the Democratic party.
If THIS actually were to happen, the Democrats would run the table with every piece of legislation they want to pass:
- Legalized marijuana nationwide.
- Legalized abortion nationwide.
- Universal healthcare, including a stronger, beefier Obamacare.
- Stricter gun control laws, including a ban on Assault Rifles.
- More pathways to citizenship for immigrants, legal and illegal.
- A New Green Deal.
- A Wealth Tax.
- Raising the minimum wage to $25/hr.
- Cancelling all student loan debt.
- Tuition-free college and universities.
- Police Reform bills
- Abolishing the Death Penalty.
Every. Single. Last. One of them... Would all get passed and they'd not only have the resources and power to pass them, they would have the time to fully integrate them into society because THIS would ensure Democratic/Liberal domination of the federal and state governments for DECADES.
And it's precisely for all these reasons why I think this is just a huge bluff on Trump's part, and that he would not actually do it and the Republicans should call him out on it. But they won't because the risks are FAR too great and the results would be catastrophic for them if he WASN'T bluffing.
Meanwhile, the Democrats should absolutely be elated at the prospect, BUT, I think the best thing for them to do is to just not bother with it and leave it alone.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. The best thing the Democrats can do is just focus on themselves and trying to become the best versions of themselves and their party that they can. Leave Trump and the GOP alone. Don't even touch that dumpster fire with a 50 ft. pole. Because there's nothing they could do to them that could possibly be any worse than what they're currently doing to themselves.
That's the best course of action they could take because even if this scenario doesn't happen and the Republican party stays together, whether it's under Trump or if Trump backs off and lets them go with another candidate (A pipe dream at this point in time), they would still be at the weakest position and worse than they have ever been, while the Democrats would be getting better and more influential across the country.
TL:DR - The Democrats mindset should be this:
"We're going to focus on ourselves and making our party, AMERICA'S party. We're going to focus on becoming the absolute best that we can be, so that we will be THAT much more capable of making our country and our citizens the absolute best AMERICA it can be. If the others guys stay together, good for them. If they split up, tough shit. It won't make a single bit of difference to us, because we're still going to win. By the time they get their shit together, we'll already be too far ahead of them for it to matter."
Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 31 January 2021