PAOerfulone said:
So, amidst all these "Trump starting his own party" rumors and hot gas. I can't help but do the nerdy thing and see just what kind of effect splitting up the GOP into two parties: The traditional Republican party and the ReTrumplican party, would have on the presidential, House, and Senate elections.
I'm actually looking at what the maps would look like and the distribution of the districts between 3 parties based on polling data in a video I saw. Which I will post here once I'm done.
But just to give a little preview on what to expect, I will say two words:
Blue Pac-Man.
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I'm old enough that I can actually remember a time when something similar happened. It was in the presidential election of 1992, which was the first one I can remember noticing. That year there was a billionaire independent candidate who ran named Ross Perot who managed to get 19% of the vote. In certain respects, Perot was a similar candidate to Trump. He appealed mainly to older and somewhat more affluent, predominantly male voters, ran an angry, nationalistic campaign championing vague goals, tending to avoid specific policy proposals like the plague and dreaming up conspiracy theories about his misfortunes (e.g. accused one of his campaign managers of being a CIA plant, claimed, without evidence, that he'd briefly dropped out of the race during the summer because the sitting Bush administration ostensibly attempted to stop his daughter's wedding, etc.). The two main issues he ran on were a commitment to reduce the national debt (eventually he was forced to come up with policy proposals for achieving this, which wound up being a fuel tax hike and cuts to Social Security) and the outsourcing of American jobs (he staunchly opposed the North American Free Trade Agreement in particular, which was very much on the ballot that cycle), so a sort of combination of causes later taken up by the tea party movement and Donald Trump decades later.
Perot got 19% of the vote in the presidential election, which, being fairly evenly distributed across the country, proved inadequate for him to actually carry a single state, though he did manage to place second in Maine and Utah. The most significant difference Perot's candidacy made, at least in the election cycle itself, appeared to be the securing of a clear Bill Clinton victory. Sitting President George Bush Sr. got a smaller vote share than four years previous and his Democratic rival Bill Clinton also got a smaller vote share than the preceding Democratic nominee had, but the drop for Bush from 1988 to '92 was much more stark; whereas Clinton fared 2 percentage points worse than his Democratic predecessor Michael Dukakis, Bush fared 16 points worse than in 1988, dropping from 53% of the vote in '88 to 37% in '92; good enough for a Clinton victory with 43% of the vote.
It wasn't a totally hollow effort though. The Perot campaign successfully put the national debt on the map as an issue for a generation. One tangible result would be the infamous 1995-6 government shutdown orchestrated by the new Republican Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, which succeeded in exacting the enactment of what we might call workfare as a concession by President Clinton. Heroic stuff.
Anyway, I think that gives you some general sense of what might happen if Trump was indeed to run separately from both parties in the future.