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Runa216 said:
PAOerfulone said:

So, amidst all these "Trump starting his own party" rumors and hot gas. I can't help but do the nerdy thing and see just what kind of effect splitting up the GOP into two parties: The traditional Republican party and the ReTrumplican party, would have on the presidential, House, and Senate elections.

I'm actually looking at what the maps would look like and the distribution of the districts between 3 parties based on polling data in a video I saw. Which I will post here once I'm done.

But just to give a little preview on what to expect, I will say two words:

Blue Pac-Man.

When has anything Trump ever said ever been more than Hot Gas?

Well, he right  about the media and how they can be "Fake News." As a Michael Jackson fan, I know all too well how full of shit and hypocritical the media can be.

........That's pretty much it.



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@PAOerfulone 

I'm not sure I understand your argument for why Trump wouldn't do this.

Sure doing this would effectively undo every policy he advocated for... but do you think Trump honestly gives a shit? Trump's sole concern is his ego. He doesn't have any actual ideology. He just says what he thinks will make his base pop a stiffy, which in turn makes him pop a stiffy, and it's a feedback loop. 

If the Republican party refuses to bend the knee, I don't see why Trump wouldn't start his own party where the world will revolve around him. That sounds like his wet dream. The only thing that might dissuade him is the fact that he would definitely lose, but then he has the built in martyr excuse about about how the whole system is against him.

So, I don't think he's at all bluffing. You're just thinking about this all wrong. Don't think of Trump as a politician who actually has policy preferences. Think of him as the Republican party's crazy ex. What would a crazy ex do in this situation? Whatever hurts their former partner, to show how much they needed them. Whatever other consequences may arise are immaterial.



JWeinCom said:

@PAOerfulone 

I'm not sure I understand your argument for why Trump wouldn't do this.

Sure doing this would effectively undo every policy he advocated for... but do you think Trump honestly gives a shit? Trump's sole concern is his ego. He doesn't have any actual ideology. He just says what he thinks will make his base pop a stiffy, which in turn makes him pop a stiffy, and it's a feedback loop. 

If the Republican party refuses to bend the knee, I don't see why Trump wouldn't start his own party where the world will revolve around him. That sounds like his wet dream. The only thing that might dissuade him is the fact that he would definitely lose, but then he has the built in martyr excuse about about how the whole system is against him.

So, I don't think he's at all bluffing. You're just thinking about this all wrong. Don't think of Trump as a politician who actually has policy preferences. Think of him as the Republican party's crazy ex. What would a crazy ex do in this situation? Whatever hurts their former partner, to show how much they needed them. Whatever other consequences may arise are immaterial.

Well, when you put it that way. It really isn’t that far-fetched at all. You’re right in just about every point you brought up. And the sad (or hilarious, depending on your viewpoint) part is that his base is so brain-dead, they can’t see the writing on the wall and how their almighty hero couldn’t give two shits and a popsicle about any of them! 



JWeinCom said:

@PAOerfulone 

I'm not sure I understand your argument for why Trump wouldn't do this.

Sure doing this would effectively undo every policy he advocated for... but do you think Trump honestly gives a shit? Trump's sole concern is his ego. He doesn't have any actual ideology. He just says what he thinks will make his base pop a stiffy, which in turn makes him pop a stiffy, and it's a feedback loop. 

If the Republican party refuses to bend the knee, I don't see why Trump wouldn't start his own party where the world will revolve around him. That sounds like his wet dream. The only thing that might dissuade him is the fact that he would definitely lose, but then he has the built in martyr excuse about about how the whole system is against him.

So, I don't think he's at all bluffing. You're just thinking about this all wrong. Don't think of Trump as a politician who actually has policy preferences. Think of him as the Republican party's crazy ex. What would a crazy ex do in this situation? Whatever hurts their former partner, to show how much they needed them. Whatever other consequences may arise are immaterial.

I believe you are still missing some main ingredients in Trump's characteristics.  There is that ego need that he has but there is also the grifter money loving bum as well.  For Trump, running again really probably not something he cares as much about then keeping the grift going.  Think about how much money in the 4 years he has amassed and pocketed with barely any effort.  That money is not tied to a loan, property, selling or managing of anything.  Trump and his family have found that politics pays crazy money.  The reason Trump would actually break off or not break off from the GOP is whether or not its more lucrative money wise to do so.  Also that money will be spent for a stronger political base as he can use it to help fund other candidates for seats in Congress and thus having that money kicked back to his pockets.



Machiavellian said:
JWeinCom said:

@PAOerfulone 

I'm not sure I understand your argument for why Trump wouldn't do this.

Sure doing this would effectively undo every policy he advocated for... but do you think Trump honestly gives a shit? Trump's sole concern is his ego. He doesn't have any actual ideology. He just says what he thinks will make his base pop a stiffy, which in turn makes him pop a stiffy, and it's a feedback loop. 

If the Republican party refuses to bend the knee, I don't see why Trump wouldn't start his own party where the world will revolve around him. That sounds like his wet dream. The only thing that might dissuade him is the fact that he would definitely lose, but then he has the built in martyr excuse about about how the whole system is against him.

So, I don't think he's at all bluffing. You're just thinking about this all wrong. Don't think of Trump as a politician who actually has policy preferences. Think of him as the Republican party's crazy ex. What would a crazy ex do in this situation? Whatever hurts their former partner, to show how much they needed them. Whatever other consequences may arise are immaterial.

I believe you are still missing some main ingredients in Trump's characteristics.  There is that ego need that he has but there is also the grifter money loving bum as well.  For Trump, running again really probably not something he cares as much about then keeping the grift going.  Think about how much money in the 4 years he has amassed and pocketed with barely any effort.  That money is not tied to a loan, property, selling or managing of anything.  Trump and his family have found that politics pays crazy money.  The reason Trump would actually break off or not break off from the GOP is whether or not its more lucrative money wise to do so.  Also that money will be spent for a stronger political base as he can use it to help fund other candidates for seats in Congress and thus having that money kicked back to his pockets.

But wouldn't that again lead to the conclusion that he would likely try to start his own party? I'm fairly certain the GOP does not want him as their candidate in 2024. I feel like his base his more likely to donate to the "Patriot Party" and he would presumably have better control over how that money is distributed. 



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PAOerfulone said:

So, amidst all these "Trump starting his own party" rumors and hot gas. I can't help but do the nerdy thing and see just what kind of effect splitting up the GOP into two parties: The traditional Republican party and the ReTrumplican party, would have on the presidential, House, and Senate elections.

I'm actually looking at what the maps would look like and the distribution of the districts between 3 parties based on polling data in a video I saw. Which I will post here once I'm done.

But just to give a little preview on what to expect, I will say two words:

Blue Pac-Man.

I'm old enough that I can actually remember a time when something similar happened. It was in the presidential election of 1992, which was the first one I can remember noticing. That year there was a billionaire independent candidate who ran named Ross Perot who managed to get 19% of the vote. In certain respects, Perot was a similar candidate to Trump. He appealed mainly to older and somewhat more affluent, predominantly male voters, ran an angry, nationalistic campaign championing vague goals, tending to avoid specific policy proposals like the plague and dreaming up conspiracy theories about his misfortunes (e.g. accused one of his campaign managers of being a CIA plant, claimed, without evidence, that he'd briefly dropped out of the race during the summer because the sitting Bush administration ostensibly attempted to stop his daughter's wedding, etc.). The two main issues he ran on were a commitment to reduce the national debt (eventually he was forced to come up with policy proposals for achieving this, which wound up being a fuel tax hike and cuts to Social Security) and the outsourcing of American jobs (he staunchly opposed the North American Free Trade Agreement in particular, which was very much on the ballot that cycle), so a sort of combination of causes later taken up by the tea party movement and Donald Trump decades later.

Perot got 19% of the vote in the presidential election, which, being fairly evenly distributed across the country, proved inadequate for him to actually carry a single state, though he did manage to place second in Maine and Utah. The most significant difference Perot's candidacy made, at least in the election cycle itself, appeared to be the securing of a clear Bill Clinton victory. Sitting President George Bush Sr. got a smaller vote share than four years previous and his Democratic rival Bill Clinton also got a smaller vote share than the preceding Democratic nominee had, but the drop for Bush from 1988 to '92 was much more stark; whereas Clinton fared 2 percentage points worse than his Democratic predecessor Michael Dukakis, Bush fared 16 points worse than in 1988, dropping from 53% of the vote in '88 to 37% in '92; good enough for a Clinton victory with 43% of the vote.

It wasn't a totally hollow effort though. The Perot campaign successfully put the national debt on the map as an issue for a generation. One tangible result would be the infamous 1995-6 government shutdown orchestrated by the new Republican Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, which succeeded in exacting the enactment of what we might call workfare as a concession by President Clinton. Heroic stuff.

Anyway, I think that gives you some general sense of what might happen if Trump was indeed to run separately from both parties in the future.



JWeinCom said:
Machiavellian said:

I believe you are still missing some main ingredients in Trump's characteristics.  There is that ego need that he has but there is also the grifter money loving bum as well.  For Trump, running again really probably not something he cares as much about then keeping the grift going.  Think about how much money in the 4 years he has amassed and pocketed with barely any effort.  That money is not tied to a loan, property, selling or managing of anything.  Trump and his family have found that politics pays crazy money.  The reason Trump would actually break off or not break off from the GOP is whether or not its more lucrative money wise to do so.  Also that money will be spent for a stronger political base as he can use it to help fund other candidates for seats in Congress and thus having that money kicked back to his pockets.

But wouldn't that again lead to the conclusion that he would likely try to start his own party? I'm fairly certain the GOP does not want him as their candidate in 2024. I feel like his base his more likely to donate to the "Patriot Party" and he would presumably have better control over how that money is distributed. 

Yes and no.  He could still get way more money staying in the GOP then just splinting off the crazies which is a nice come up but probably doesn't merit the same amount he gets by staying.  I believe and this is purely just opinion, that the true Trump fans amount to about 15% of GOP party.  Those are the ones I believe will give to him no matter what but big donors and the majority probably not going to just go where he goes.  I believe that percentage is still enough to definitely effect a lot of elections and cause havoc which is what he wants but I can actually see the GOP calling his bluff, turn 100% against him and try to move on. This dynamic play was always going to be in the cards when Trump lost and the GOP is thinking to themselves short term gain long term pain.  At some point they may be willing to give up the crazies for a longer gameplan but it depends on how many are in it for the money or the long game.



RolStoppable said:

Sometimes people don't know what's best for them.

People still deserve the right to make the choice, whether it is right or wrong.

It's actually how we live, learn and grow.

How many times did your parents tell you not to touch something because it may be hot, yet we did it anyway?



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

Ka-pi96 said:
Pemalite said:

People still deserve the right to make the choice, whether it is right or wrong.

It's actually how we live, learn and grow.

How many times did your parents tell you not to touch something because it may be hot, yet we did it anyway?

Which people? Because the minority typically won't have the right to make choices.

In general it is applicable to everyone in every instance once we reach an Adult age, it should be a fundamental freedom.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

Pemalite said:
RolStoppable said:

Sometimes people don't know what's best for them.

People still deserve the right to make the choice, whether it is right or wrong.

It's actually how we live, learn and grow.

How many times did your parents tell you not to touch something because it may be hot, yet we did it anyway?

Unfortunately the stupid dumb dumbs can bring down the lot of us, the Climate Crisis is testament to that :/