Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

SpokenTruth said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Can somebody explain to a non-american what's the difference between a primary and a caucus?

Primaries are state established (and state-wide) elections to choose a candidate to represent a given party during the general election later in the year.

Caucuses are established by the parties themselves, are usually held in a local area of a state and can also be used to determine party policy and other leaders as well as select their nominated candidate for the general election later in the year.

Before voting rights were guaranteed to all, caucuses pretty much ruled the day for all states. Now only 10 states use them including Iowa today.

Thanks for the explanation!

uran10 said:

I saw a poll stealing my thunder about what I was gonna predict so I decided now was the time to do so before the necessary threshold is met. That is, if Bernie wins Iowa and NH he will also win SC. Anyway, with that out of the way let me explain the best case scenario for Iowa for Bernie.

1) Bernie Wins in an overwhelming fashion.

2) Pete Gets second place

3) Warren gets 3rd

4) Biden gets 4th or Below.

Bernie winning in a big way speaks for itself, he gets a lead and he also gives americans a reason to believe he is the most electable because he is.

Pete 2nd over Warren is important as well, Pete has no minority support, regardless of how well he does in NH and Iowa he's not going much further than that. Him beating Warren will lower the amount of people that believe Warren can win and possibly lower their enthusiasm for her causing them to move on. Warren supporters 2nd choice is Bernie Sanders, this is a win. Warren and Biden together is the only thing stopping Bernie, if either 1 drops out Bernie wins the nomination with ease because he is their 2nd choice.

This leads into Biden. His entire argument is that he's the most electable. If he comes 2nd or 3rd, he might be able to keep people thinking he still is, but if he gets 4th or below? He's done. His support will crumble, his "firewall" will break and his campaign will collapse by super tuesday. with Biden out of the way, his supporters 2nd choice will move to first and that is Bernie Sanders. With that done Bernie would have successfully set himself up to sweep the primary and win on the first vote without super delegates getting a chance to steal it from him.

In other words, if we win tonight, and we win NH and we win Nevada, we will win SC and with an early states sweep we'll have our path cleared into super tuesday. The real final boss that will try to prevent us from getting the nomination on the first ballot is Bloomberg. He's only running because the establishment figured Biden would collapse. If He ends Iowa in fourth, that's it. We've possibly won the nomination at that very moment.

Aboutt he bolded part: If he also wins Nevada, then I think he has a good chance at winning SC. And if he were to win those 4 in a row, then he'll win the primary, as Biden's "electability" myth would have been shattered by reality. And I don't think Bloomberg can rise fast enough, rather he and Biden will steal each other's votes until one of both drops out - which I believe they won't do (too thick-headed and certain of their own superiority for that) and thus fail in their bid.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 03 February 2020

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Finished my caucus an hour ago. Biden wasn't viable. Pete Buttigeig got 1 delegate with around 50 people. Sanders and Warren each got 3 delegates with around 115 people. Biden doesn't seem to be doing too well. Lots of places where Pete and Amy are soaking up non-viable Biden votes. It seems that Biden is a lot of people's 2nd or 3rd choice so he's losing a lot of ground. Warren seems to be doing really well. I think at this point it's a three way race between Biden, Warren, and Bernie, in the Iowa Caucuses. Pete and Amy both seem to be getting one or two delegates here and there. Everyone else is toast.



The sentence below is false. 
The sentence above is true. 

 

With the voting results app issue delaying everything, I'm getting really sick of the incompetence on display by everybody involved in election IT.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

It kinda baffles me that a party that has a majority support for getting rid of the electoral college still uses delegates and caucuses to decide a nominee.



jason1637 said:
It kinda baffles me that a party that has a majority support for getting rid of the electoral college still uses delegates and caucuses to decide a nominee.

Those 2 are linked.  You can't get rid of caucus/primary delegates until you get rid of the electoral college.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

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SpokenTruth said:
jason1637 said:
It kinda baffles me that a party that has a majority support for getting rid of the electoral college still uses delegates and caucuses to decide a nominee.

Those 2 are linked.  You can't get rid of caucus/primary delegates until you get rid of the electoral college.

I didn't know that. Well both systems suck.



SpokenTruth said:
With the voting results app issue delaying everything, I'm getting really sick of the incompetence on display by everybody involved in election IT.

It's not the IT team for the DNC has any decision making authority. The ineptitude of the DNC has been on display for a long time now and this is another blunder to add to the tally.



outlawauron said:
SpokenTruth said:
With the voting results app issue delaying everything, I'm getting really sick of the incompetence on display by everybody involved in election IT.

It's not the IT team for the DNC has any decision making authority. The ineptitude of the DNC has been on display for a long time now and this is another blunder to add to the tally.

Certainly that's its own major issue but since IT is my field and most of these IT issues are basic security or networking 101 failures.....it just gets under my skin.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

Early reports show Sanders ahead of the pack with Warren not that far behind, Pete in third and Biden and Amy in the distance tied for 4th...

Last edited by tsogud - on 04 February 2020

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses
"Donald Trump won the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses."

It's worse than I could have imagined.

Already been edited out.