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Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

Here are some media summaries from the debate:

Seems the general consensus is, that Warren killed it Bloomberg got hit hard. I am not sure though, that any of this moves the support. Bloomberg has support from 16% of people according to national polls (average of RCP). This is substantial, but these people might just be the base that isn't moved by these attacks. Similarly Warrens fire may appeal to the base she already has. But it is also possible that Bloomberg-fans reconsider and people that liked Warren but had another first choice are  realigning to her. We really need new polls to see what it did, and I am not sure if we get polls that include the debate before Nevada.

Other than that, an remakable article by The Atlantic claims, that Sanders may be way less divise as party elite sees him and in fact may be the best candidate to unite the democratic party:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/regular-democrats-arent-least-bit-worried-about-bernie/606688/



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Warren won the debate, Bloomberg came dead last. Biden did fine too. Unsure about Buttigieg, he did fine but might have come across as too mean. Klobuchar couldn't quite defend herself and flopped a bit. Sanders left alone for the most part, wasn't at the top of his game but wasn't bad either.



 

 

 

 

 

SpokenTruth said:
Mnementh said:

Here are some media summaries from the debate:

Seems the general consensus is, that Warren killed it Bloomberg got hit hard. I am not sure though, that any of this moves the support. Bloomberg has support from 16% of people according to national polls (average of RCP). This is substantial, but these people might just be the base that isn't moved by these attacks. Similarly Warrens fire may appeal to the base she already has. But it is also possible that Bloomberg-fans reconsider and people that liked Warren but had another first choice are  realigning to her. We really need new polls to see what it did, and I am not sure if we get polls that include the debate before Nevada.

Other than that, an remakable article by The Atlantic claims, that Sanders may be way less divise as party elite sees him and in fact may be the best candidate to unite the democratic party:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/regular-democrats-arent-least-bit-worried-about-bernie/606688/

That 16% for Bloomberg isn't a base because he doesn't have a base yet.  It's all because of his ad campaign.  He's spent over $450 million on ads in states that the other candidates have no focus on yet.  To many people, his ads are the only ads they are seeing.

And that piece in the Atlantic was fantastic. Nice to see someone actually do some research and critical thinking and not just being a mouthpiece for party leaders.

Jut to put the amount of money he put in into perspective:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jILIpt3b8CU

Keep in mind this was only until end of December, so when Bloomberg was barely running for over a month! Hence why she says that Bloomberg will never qualify for any debate, as the DNC didn't change the rules for him yet.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 20 February 2020

Bofferbrauer2 said:
SpokenTruth said:

That 16% for Bloomberg isn't a base because he doesn't have a base yet.  It's all because of his ad campaign.  He's spent over $450 million on ads in states that the other candidates have no focus on yet.  To many people, his ads are the only ads they are seeing.

And that piece in the Atlantic was fantastic. Nice to see someone actually do some research and critical thinking and not just being a mouthpiece for party leaders.

Jut to put the amount of money he put in into perspective:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jILIpt3b8CU

Keep in mind this was only until end of December, so when Bloomberg was barely running for over a month! Hence why she says that Bloomberg will never qualify for any debate, as the DNC didn't change the rules for him yet.

This video is more than a month old. Noticeable as Maddows says that Bloomberg will never make a debate, because he takes no donations.

538 is tracking the TV-ads, and Sanders, Warren, Biden, even Yang until his dropout and the others have all doubled down on TV-ads since the video. But it all look feeble compared to the money Steyer and Bloomberg pouring in. Interestingly enough Trump made his TV-ads last year and has this year not shown much interest in airing more ads.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-campaign-ads/



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I didn't watch the debates cause I rather not torture myself by watching most people lie and 1 tell the truth, but I've seen some clips and bloomberg pretty much got destroyed which is good. However, the real story here isn't who won the debate, Its what all the candidates but Bernie admitted (which once again proved me right). They're all saying that they want super delegates to choose the nominee and it doesn't have to be the person with the most delegates going into the convention. This is the main reason why so many neoliberals were running, this is why Warren was running a campaign that was essentially Bernie lite, and this is why they're trying to dog pile Bernie or stay in the race even if they have no path to the nomination.

The Goal is a contested convention where they steal the election from Bernie. Everyone who was saying "warren will pool with Bernie" when I was saying "nope, she's a snake" do you understand now? Do you still give her the benefit of the doubt? This entire primary was a stop Bernie Primary. Joe Biden is running because he has high name recognition, the only person on that stage with more name ID than Bernie.

Pete was a part of the stop Bernie meetings. Warren is running to pull of progressive and young support off of Bernie. Bloomberg is the Insurance Policy if Biden Collapses (which he has).

Remember back in 2016 when they said the person with the most votes should win? Turns out they don't believe that.

Oh and one last thing, if you think the dem party going into a contested convention and trying to steal this from Bernie will go "smoothly" you're crazy. There's a reason why Bernie supporters are with him and why they're angry and if you piss them off with a blatant robbery, the least of your worries would be the dem party being destroyed. People are at their breaking points, I see it all the time. The Dem party rather destroy itself than elect Bernie and I'm telling you, if it goes this route ggs. I'm not saying that I'll be doing anything I'm just reading a room here. If you steal from these supporters who see this as their last hope for change, their wrath will know no bounds and that's scary. The fact that all the candidates just said we rather steal the nomination that let Bernie go on to win says a ton and its only going to get scarier and scarier if we go towards a contested convention. Especially since there have been "discrepancies" in the contests so far.



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It wouldn't be a new thing, though.

Eisenhower was second place in the 1952 Republican primaries. Humphrey wasn't even running, but was chosen as a consensus candidate in the 1968 Democratic primaries. McGovern lost the popular vote in the 1972 Democratic Primaries. Obama lost the popular vote in the 2008 Democratic primaries.

A fairly mixed record of what happens after, but with a caveat: everyone in the Democratic party knew they were sending candidates to die against Nixon in 1968 and 1972. Conversely, Eisenhower and Obama won handily despite their respective primaries being infamous bloodbathes that makes 2020 look like a kindergarten.

I think this year would be more like Reps in 1952 than Dems in 1968, because Eisenhower was specifically chosen by a joint moderate effort over Taft because the latter was deemed too conservative and extreme for the general elections.

Not that any of this is going to happen, of course. Everyone in that stage hates each other and aren't about to combine delegates or anything.



 

 

 

 

 

SpokenTruth said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Jut to put the amount of money he put in into perspective:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jILIpt3b8CU

Keep in mind this was only until end of December, so when Bloomberg was barely running for over a month!

That suggests Bloomberg is spending ~$150 million per month on just ads.  Now I say just ads because he is spending millions on his staff too.  Most are getting paid $40k for a 6 month contract....guaranteed regardless of whether he drops tomorrow or not.  And these aren't top campaign execs but basic staff.

I did chuckle a little when Maddow said Bloomberg would never be in a debate because of the rules.  But I guess that's what happens when your national political chairperson is a member of the DNC Rules Committee and one of your senior advisors is the goddam vice chair of the Rules Committee.

Yeah, MSNBC also called this out in a lengthy video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNLbAW5nLJI



uran10 said:

The Goal is a contested convention where they steal the election from Bernie. Everyone who was saying "warren will pool with Bernie" when I was saying "nope, she's a snake" do you understand now? Do you still give her the benefit of the doubt?

Actually, yes I do still think she will put her delegates to Bernies (for a job in the administration), if Bernie alone hasn't a majority.

uran10 said:

Oh and one last thing, if you think the dem party going into a contested convention and trying to steal this from Bernie will go "smoothly" you're crazy. There's a reason why Bernie supporters are with him and why they're angry and if you piss them off with a blatant robbery, the least of your worries would be the dem party being destroyed. People are at their breaking points, I see it all the time. The Dem party rather destroy itself than elect Bernie and I'm telling you, if it goes this route ggs. I'm not saying that I'll be doing anything I'm just reading a room here. If you steal from these supporters who see this as their last hope for change, their wrath will know no bounds and that's scary. The fact that all the candidates just said we rather steal the nomination that let Bernie go on to win says a ton and its only going to get scarier and scarier if we go towards a contested convention. Especially since there have been "discrepancies" in the contests so far.

Well yes, if the democratic elite is trying to steal it after Bernie won a plurality of delegates - that would destroy them. And I can see many party elites doing that, as they are stupid enough to underestimate the effect this will have. I linked earlier the article that explains how the democratic voters are pretty OK with Sanders. If they see such shenanigangs, it will break the party.



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Mnementh said:
uran10 said:

The Goal is a contested convention where they steal the election from Bernie. Everyone who was saying "warren will pool with Bernie" when I was saying "nope, she's a snake" do you understand now? Do you still give her the benefit of the doubt?

Actually, yes I do still think she will put her delegates to Bernies (for a job in the administration), if Bernie alone hasn't a majority.

uran10 said:

Oh and one last thing, if you think the dem party going into a contested convention and trying to steal this from Bernie will go "smoothly" you're crazy. There's a reason why Bernie supporters are with him and why they're angry and if you piss them off with a blatant robbery, the least of your worries would be the dem party being destroyed. People are at their breaking points, I see it all the time. The Dem party rather destroy itself than elect Bernie and I'm telling you, if it goes this route ggs. I'm not saying that I'll be doing anything I'm just reading a room here. If you steal from these supporters who see this as their last hope for change, their wrath will know no bounds and that's scary. The fact that all the candidates just said we rather steal the nomination that let Bernie go on to win says a ton and its only going to get scarier and scarier if we go towards a contested convention. Especially since there have been "discrepancies" in the contests so far.

Well yes, if the democratic elite is trying to steal it after Bernie won a plurality of delegates - that would destroy them. And I can see many party elites doing that, as they are stupid enough to underestimate the effect this will have. I linked earlier the article that explains how the democratic voters are pretty OK with Sanders. If they see such shenanigangs, it will break the party.

I think you're naive. Warren has been going after Bernie in the dirtiest of ways and the fact that she agrees with everyone on this shows clear as day where she stands. I'm not sure how you still believe Warren would work with Bernie when she's been siding with the corporate wing more and more.



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uran10 said:
Mnementh said:

Actually, yes I do still think she will put her delegates to Bernies (for a job in the administration), if Bernie alone hasn't a majority.

Well yes, if the democratic elite is trying to steal it after Bernie won a plurality of delegates - that would destroy them. And I can see many party elites doing that, as they are stupid enough to underestimate the effect this will have. I linked earlier the article that explains how the democratic voters are pretty OK with Sanders. If they see such shenanigangs, it will break the party.

I think you're naive. Warren has been going after Bernie in the dirtiest of ways and the fact that she agrees with everyone on this shows clear as day where she stands. I'm not sure how you still believe Warren would work with Bernie when she's been siding with the corporate wing more and more.

I think you're too negative when it comes to Warren.

She has attacked Bernie, that's for sure, but guess what? She has attacked everybody, and most other candidates got much more and harsher attacks from her. She's trying to dig up her own path, and to do so, she has to pass through Bernie, too. But she kept most of her furor for other candidates, as Bloomberg felt very well last night.