Do you think the launch of PS4 and Xbox One had an impact on 3DS sales?

Well, i don't think 3DS was competing against those consoles or that is just the only reason why affected 3DS sales, but according to VGC, 3DS went from 14M in 2013 to less than 10M in 2014, so...it could be one of the reasons?, maybe??, i don't know. By end of 2014, 3DS had 46 months in existence too, so what i'm saying is that all of the factors than i think it's going to happen to Switch could have happend to 3DS too.

With Mario Maker, Animal Crossing and Pokemon (+ Fire Emblem and Dragon Quest in Japan) as the major system sellers of the year, I think they're going to go for 20 million again with even more confidence that they'll reach the goal.

If Japan is anything to go by, the Switch should be noticeably up YoY so far and with Mario Maker being the big, blockbuster, Summer title for this year, that game along with Fire Emblem should carry the Switch up considerably YoY from June through August. Then September through December is where it'll get really interesting, because somewhere within that time, if all goes as planned, we should get Luigi's Mansion 3, Link's Awakening, Animal Crossing, and Pokemon Gen 8 coming out. If you thought last year's holiday lineup with Super Mario Party, Pokemon Let's Go, and Smash Bros. Ultimate was great, that wouldn't even compare to this year's lineup if those four games are the ones we get!

Nintendo has all the pieces they need to put that 20 million puzzle together this year. If they don't screw it up, they should reach it.

Are we generalise things? I only saw that kind of comments just for Assassin's Creed 3 and Dead by Daylight, bad port is bad port, it doesn't matter about what platform we talking about. And huge majority of people were talking how different kind of games in Direct we saw, both 1st party and 3rd party, no how 1 or 2 games looked bad, and guess what, Switch will only getting much more different 3rd party games in any case. Switch will not stop receving games because PS5/XB2, buy time they arive Switch will be platform with install base of around 70m and will be very healthy platform in any case, so offcourse that plenty of 3rd party will keep releasing games for Switch, I mean its not like that Switch is getting even now plenty of AAA current gen games that next gen will effect on Switch support.

Talking about sales, Super Mario Maker 2 launch in June is huge difference compared to last year, we are getting big Switch game at end of Q1 of FY19, while we in 2018. we needed to wait Q3 of FY18 for big game, and Nintendo itself that main reason why they will not hit 20m goal in FY 2018. is lower sales in April-September period, this year same period will be quite stronger when comes to releases.

I was just giving my opinion. AC3, DbD, DQ XI, Senua, all looked blurry, or had huge framerate problems compared to PS4/XBO. And those are just games from last Direct, there are other games that suffered a lot already on sale. So yes, most games that were meant to work on PS4/XBO look way worse on Switch is a fair "generalisation". 

And no, 3rd party devs that will spent a lot of money and time making games for PS5/XB2 won't spent as much money, time and games on Switch, despite having a bigger install base. That didn't happen with Wii compared to PS3/X360 and it's not going to happen with Switch for obvious reasons. You forget too that those companies will still sell games on PS4 and XBO that will have an even bigger instal base than Switch. By the time they stop selling games on those consoles (and Switch has 70M sold like you said), PS5/XB2 will have enough install base combined to sell specific games for those consoles.

We are in 2019 and Capcom, Square Enix, EA, Activision, Bethesda, Ubisoft, etc have not announced a single exclusive AAA game for Switch. Some of them will make games for Switch of course, but those games won't help Switch to sell better, because they won't be the best games from those companies. 

Switch is going to live and die on 1st party Nintendo games. 3rd party games and indies are just icing on the cake.

Square Enix has Octopath Traveller while Ubsoft made Mario&Rabbits: Kingdom Battle as exclusive games just from the top of my head . DQ XI S and Starlink: Battle of Atlas are both much bigger and more extensive on Switch which make the Switch versions by far the best one. Konami made Super Bomberman R a timed exclusive. And that's just out of my head and not counting Hyrule Warriors and Fire Emblem Warriors.

What games do PS4 or XBO have exclusive from these publishers?

The big publishers didn't invest very much into the Wii because their games didn't sell very well back then (safe for Just Dance). But with the Switch we constantly get news that sales of Switch versions exceed expectations, not just from Indies but also from the publishers. There's a reason why EA is reportedly porting the Frostbyte engine to the Switch: 3rd party games are selling well on Switch. It's not just Nintendo anymore, thought he high quality of their games sure helps.

Besides, these Publishers are all downshrinking to just a handful of IP (apart maybe Ubisoft and Square Enix, for now), so I'm sure neither the PS5 or the Xbox Next will get much 3rd party exclusives either, no matter how well they'll do.

Just banking on the publishers ain't worth it either, just have a look at the XBO. While third party games generate sales, the selection of first party and other (non-timed) exclusive games is getting more and more important again when choosing which console to buy. Without their slew of great first party titles, the PS4 wouldn't nearly have sold as well as it did.

I guess we don't share the same definition of AAA game....To me, SM Odyssey = AAA game, Zelda BOTW = AAA game, Mario Kart 8 DX = AAA game, even Splatoon 2 is an AAA game. Octopath traveler, Mario+Rabbids, Starlink are not AAA games.

For the 2nd point. Which exclusive PS4/XBO have from those companies??, Compared to Switch, almost all of them. PS4 and XBO have games from those companies that Switch doesn't have. When i said that i was trying to say that if Switch didn't receive KH3, RE2, DM5,... the same time as PS4/XBO like it will happen with games like MK 11 or CTR at least it could've been substituted by exclusive games adapted for Switch, but that isn't happening either. So no games at the same time as PS4/XBO, no ports from those games announced for the future like it happened with DQ XI, and no exclusive games that only work on Switch like Mario+Rabbids either (except for Ubisoft in this case, obviously).

So yes, PS5 and XB2 won't have too many exclusives for their own either, but i was comparing Switch to PS4/XBO (in fact, being honest, both are basically the same console having 95% of the same games).

As for your last point. PS4 sold impressively well at launch, in 2014 and 2015 without having any huge 1st party exclusive games, so PS4 proved it can sell without good exclusives. Nintendo can't afford that fot their consoles, that was my point.

@bolded: I was actually asking for a list, as I don't remind many. Also, any game being on PS4 and XBO ain't exclusive, so you can count all those out already.

@italic: MK11 is coming to Switch. And again, it's no exclusive either way. What's CTR btw?

As for your last point, that's pretty normal considering how much Microsoft shot themselves into the foot with their anti-consumerism. But that only could work early on, as Microsoft turned the ship around so hard that it's Sony who is looking increasingly anti-consumer. Cross-play, anyone? Starting their second year, they got some very good exclusives which kept the Xbox from catching up. TLOU Remastered, Driveclub, Little Big Planet 3, Bloodborne, GOW III remastered, Journey, Beyond: Two Souls; that's just a few of the exclusives the PS4 got which helped grow the gap to the exclusive-starved XBO.

I guess i don't explain myself well enough.

From the Switch perspective. RE2, KH3, DMC5 are "exclusive" to PS4/XBO, meaning that those are games i can't play on Switch. Take that more than PS4/XBO exclusive game as a antiexclusive game for Switch (if this makes any sense).

MK11 being on Switch was my point. MK11 is an example of a game that comes to Switch at the same time as PS4/XBO unlike KH3, DMC 5 or RE2 (as examples). CTR, by the way is the great and only Crash Team Racing (but now i doubting if it was announced for Switch, so maybe that wasn't a good example).

From those games, only TLOU Remastered sold huge (huge at the level of the best Switch exclusives i mean). Driveclub, LBP3, Bloodborne, GOW III remastered, Journey, Beyond, ...were no the reasons why PS4 sold so well until Uncharted 4 came (the 1st big exclusive game for PS4).

@bolded, no, that doesn't make any sense at all Like I said, just look at the exclusive game-starved XBO and you can see that these don't push sales anywhere near as well anymore as they did last gen. If that would be all it takes, then PS4 and XBO would have similar weekly sales by now, but that's far from happening. It needs real exclusives, meaning totally exclusive games or at least platform (like all the Wii U rereleases on Switch)/console (which are also on PC but not on any other console) exclusives to push the hardware. Switch would probably have a somewhat higher baseline with these multiplats and some spike here and there, but that's about it. Just to quote yourself:"Switch is going to live and die on 1st party Nintendo games. 3rd party games and indies are just icing on the cake." Thing is, that's pretty much true for all 3 now. 

Yes, Crash Team Racing is coming to the Switch, just couldn't make the link between the abbreviation and the game in question.

As for teh last line, you didn't get my point. PS4 had a lot of real exclusive games, a thing that the XBO didn't have. Even with Microsoft turning back on pretty much everything they said at their catastrophic E3 reveal, without the exclusive games to incite gamers to choose their platform it couldn't catch up in sales anymore because they banked too much on the multiplats. Microsoft has learned the lesson and is buying studios left and right right now to avoid this situation on the next gen