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colafitte on 14 February 2019
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StarDoor said:
colafitte said:

The year you are using for Wii to compare is not a fair comparison, because Wii "crashed" in sales in 2011. By the time 2010 ended, Wii had around 50 months in existence since launch and 2010 was the first year Wii sold less than the year before. By the time 2020 ends, Switch will have 46 months in existence. People don't use correctly the years comparing both consoles because Wii launched in November and Switch in March, That's 10 months before its first calendar year ended, and those months have to be counted. And in this case, those months had 3 or 4 of the most succesful games the console  still has, Zelda BOTW, MK8 DX, Splatoon 2, SM Odyssey, so a lot of people bought the console by that time, earlier than normal.

During 2020, Switch is going to stop growing and start falling in my opinion. By the time Nintendo reveals its FY2019 (March 2020), Switch is going to have more than 50M shipped. Yesterday at the last Nintendo Direct people could see how 3rd party games looked worse or even awful on Switch compared to PS4/XBO, and most of them were not very demanding or recent games. How is Switch going to look in 2020 with the next gen then??.

People say that WiiU failed for a lot of reasons, price, bad games at launch, bad marketing, and all of them are true of course. But for me, the main reason WiiU failed was because just after launch (Holiday 2012), next gen consoles were announced. By June 2013 nobody cared about WiiU because all the attention was directed to PS4 and XBO by then. Yes, i know, Switch is not the same as WiiU, thanks to Switch inheriting most of the 3DS audience, but it will affect sales anyway. 

So yes, longevity, new gen consoles plus all the main franchises already launching at least one of their big games on Switch (except Metroid Prime 4) by 2020 will be reasons as why it will affect Switch sales to drop heavily after that point. Despite all of this, Switch, like i said will probably sell/ship around 12M, maybe 13M that year. It will be a phenomenal number yet.

 

(i know i'm sounding like what i am saying is going to be a fact, but it's not my intention, i'm only giving my humble opinion, nothing more).

Do you think the launch of PS4 and Xbox One had an impact on 3DS sales?

Well, i don't think 3DS was competing against those consoles or that is just the only reason why affected 3DS sales, but according to VGC, 3DS went from 14M in 2013 to less than 10M in 2014, so...it could be one of the reasons?, maybe??, i don't know. By end of 2014, 3DS had 46 months in existence too, so what i'm saying is that all of the factors than i think it's going to happen to Switch could have happend to 3DS too.