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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo FY Q3 Results (Switch 32.3m LT, Smash Bros 12m, Pokemon 10m..)

AngryLittleAlchemist said:
zorg1000 said:

It just got adjusted up.

Wait what? Where? 

Wait ... for the Nintendo Fiscal Year predictions or for VGC?

On the front page, Switch's LT sales were adjusted up from 30.5M to 30.7M and the Hardware by Date tool shows that Switch is at 17.04M for 2018 when it was previously at around 16.9M.

Though, to be honest, I don't think that this adjustment is correct. VGChartz thinks that the number of units in transit at the end of 2017 was 1.69M, and we know that the gap between shipments and sell-through in Japan alone rose from 400k at the end of 2017 to 880k at the end of 2018. Now, Switch was still very supply constrained in Japan even at the beginning of 2018, so it's possible that the gap between sell-through and sell-in hasn't changed outside of Japan. Still, the WW gap between sell-in and sell-through should really be 2.17M at a minimum given the 480k increase in Japan. This would give LT sales of 30.1M at the end of 2018 and 2018 sales of 16.9M.



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colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:

It just got adjusted up.

Hahaha, i saw it earlier.... I guess VGC hates me.

 

If VGC shows Switch ended 2018 with 30'3M then, there's only 1'9M on shelves after shipping more than 9M in a month?....Excuse me but i doubt it. Probably there's more adjustments left. Last year Switch shipped 14'86M shipped total and around 7'5M shipped in Q3, with a lot of news everywhere saying there was no stock for Switch and still there was around 1'7M on shelves. If you ask me, there should be at least 2'5M on shelves and more close to 3'0M.

No, stock problems at the end of 2017 were pretty much exclusive to Japan. Also 2017 numbers were part of the adjustment.

End of 2017

Sold-13.18

Shipped-14.86

Difference-1.68

 

End of 2018

Sold-30.22

Shipped-32.27

Difference-2.05

 

I see nothing wrong with the numbers. If its overtracked than it's by such a low number that its not really worth arguing about.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

wombat123 said:
PAOerfulone said:
So out of the 22 million sellers on Switch, 7 of them are 3rd parties.
We obviously know that Octopath Traveler is one of them, what are the other 6?

My guessese
- Skyrim
- FIFA 18
- Crash N Sane Trilogy
- Sonic Mania
... That's the best I can come up with, I got no clue about the other two.

If I had to guess:
- FIFA 18
- Skyrim
- Crash Trilogy
- Mario + Rabbids
- Minecraft
- Super Bomberman R
- Stardew Valley

I didn't put Octopath Traveler because I don't know if it counts since 1m of its sales came from Nintendo publishing it.

I can't believe I completley forgot about Mario + Rabbids. That's obviously one of them. And I count Octopath because Nintendo only published it overseas. In Japan, Square Enix is the publisher and they are the ones who developed it. So I consider it a 3rd party title. 



PAOerfulone said:
wombat123 said:

If I had to guess:
- FIFA 18
- Skyrim
- Crash Trilogy
- Mario + Rabbids
- Minecraft
- Super Bomberman R
- Stardew Valley

I didn't put Octopath Traveler because I don't know if it counts since 1m of its sales came from Nintendo publishing it.

I can't believe I completley forgot about Mario + Rabbids. That's obviously one of them. And I count Octopath because Nintendo only published it overseas. In Japan, Square Enix is the publisher and they are the ones who developed it. So I consider it a 3rd party title. 

It's Mario so it's easy to assume that it's a 2nd party game until you see that Ubisoft also published it.



zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

Hahaha, i saw it earlier.... I guess VGC hates me.

 

If VGC shows Switch ended 2018 with 30'3M then, there's only 1'9M on shelves after shipping more than 9M in a month?....Excuse me but i doubt it. Probably there's more adjustments left. Last year Switch shipped 14'86M shipped total and around 7'5M shipped in Q3, with a lot of news everywhere saying there was no stock for Switch and still there was around 1'7M on shelves. If you ask me, there should be at least 2'5M on shelves and more close to 3'0M.

No, stock problems at the end of 2017 were pretty much exclusive to Japan. Also 2017 numbers were part of the adjustment.

End of 2017

Sold-13.18

Shipped-14.86

Difference-1.68

 

End of 2018

Sold-30.22

Shipped-32.27

Difference-2.05

 

I see nothing wrong with the numbers. If its overtracked than it's by such a low number that its not really worth arguing about.

Even if it was only in JP this would be the first time i see such minimal gap between shipped and sold after Q3, after selling more than 8 or 9M in Q3 even by Nintendo standars. And after knowing JP, US, and most important markets in Europe, everything still points to VGC overtracking some markets, like it happened with XBO recently. 

Edit: I find funny that VGC decide to adjust up the numbers after the official shipments. Was VGC then expecting even less shipments than me then??XD

Edit 2: For comparison in 2010, Wii after selling 17'3M according to VGC, VGC showed 82'1M sold when Wii had 84'64M shipped. So a difference of 2'5M units....It's the better comparison i can find.

Last edited by colafitte - on 31 January 2019

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Acevil said:
zorg1000 said:

If by right you mean, right on his 3rd guess than I guess.

He originally said it was on track to do 8 million then changed it to 13 million before finally getting it right.

That's what I love about certain individuals that come troll the switch. They act like quick ly and think they are right because it didn't reach 20 million, when their prediction was originally much much lower at the start of it all. 

Are you talking about me, since I haven't ever made any prediction about Switch sales. I just found it funny that even though Pachter gets so much hate, this time it looks like he is the one who is going to be right.



"The rumours of my death have been greatly exaggerated."

- Single-player Game

colafitte said:

Edit: I find funny that VGC decide to adjust up the numbers after the official shipments. Was VGC then expecting even less shipments than me then??XD

Kinda funny, I concur. Let them be. Soon it will be shipped=sold for Switch here.

Kinda funny that PS4 sold more to consumers than Switch to retailers if u ask me.



Do the software sales numbers reflect units shipped or sold through consumers. Numbers are still impressive though.



ratolmc said:
Do the software sales numbers reflect units shipped or sold through consumers. Numbers are still impressive though.

Shipped. It's always shipped.



colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:

No, stock problems at the end of 2017 were pretty much exclusive to Japan. Also 2017 numbers were part of the adjustment.

End of 2017

Sold-13.18

Shipped-14.86

Difference-1.68

 

End of 2018

Sold-30.22

Shipped-32.27

Difference-2.05

 

I see nothing wrong with the numbers. If its overtracked than it's by such a low number that its not really worth arguing about.

Even if it was only in JP this would be the first time i see such minimal gap between shipped and sold after Q3, after selling more than 8 or 9M even by Nintendo standars. And after knowing JP, US, and most important markets in Europe, everything still points to VGC overtracking some markets, like it happened with XBO recently. 

This is the first time you have seen such minimal gaps? Here are comparable Nintendo platforms after 2nd post-launch holiday.

DS end 2006

Sold-34.62m

Shipped-35.61m

Difference-0.99m

 

Wii end 2008

Sold-43.70m

Shipped-44.96m

Difference-1.26m

 

3DS end 2012

Sold-26.05m

Shipped-27.73m

Difference-1.68m

 

Switch end 2018

Sold-30.22m

Shipped-32.27m

Difference-2.05m

 

Bonus: PS4 end 2015

Sold-35.9m

Shipped-37.7m

Difference-1.8m



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.