Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict 2019 Japanese Sales (PS4/Switch Only)

NSW: 4.2M
PS4: 1.4M



Around the Network

Switch: 4.8m
Ps4: 1.3m



4M switch
1.5 PS4



NSW: 4.1 M
PS4: 1.2M



Switch - 3.8M
PS4 - 1.6M



Around the Network

4.5m Switch
1m PS4.



4,2 m switch
1,5m ps4



Current YTD

Switch 3.968.150
PS4 1.007.491

Based on the sales trajectory, Nintendo Switch is likely to end up at 4.4m-4.6m range for 2019 while PS4 is around ~1.1



Here's the summary for this thread. Predictions that were longer than two decimals were mathematically rounded to two. For people who gave ranges, the middle of the range was fed into the average. For people who gave multiple predictions based on certain conditions being fulfilled, the predictions that had more of the listed conditions fulfilled were used. Empty cells mean that the predictor in question omitted one of the two consoles.

Switch PS4 Ratio
3,75 1,38 2,72
4,90
3,80 1,60 2,38
5,00 1,20 4,17
4,50 1,30 3,46
4,90 1,35 3,63
5,00 1,80 2,78
4,50 1,60 2,81
4,50 1,40 3,21
4,13 1,35 3,06
4,50 1,40 3,21
4,50 1,50 3,00
4,00 1,50 2,67
4,00 1,50 2,67
1,50
3,90 1,45 2,69
4,35 1,35 3,22
3,50 1,30 2,69
4,50 1,35 3,33
4,55 1,40 3,25
3,80 1,40 2,71
4,00 1,40 2,86
4,20 1,50 2,80
4,60 1,50 3,07
3,50 1,70 2,06
4,25 1,40 3,04
4,20 1,40 3,00
4,80 1,30 3,69
4,00 1,50 2,67
4,10 1,20 3,42
3,80 1,60 2,38
4,50 1,00 4,50
4,20 1,50 2,80
4,27 1,43 3,03

The bolded numbers at the bottom are the averages, so 4.27m for Switch and 1.43m for the PS4. The final tallies in a couple of weeks will see the average Switch prediction being too low by only a few percent while the margin of error for the PS4 will almost certainly exceed 25%. Only one PS4 prediction in this thread will have been lower than the actual result, so too much optimism across the board.

EDIT: Added another column for the ratio by which Switch was predicted to outsell the PS4 (a 3.03:1 ratio on average).

Last edited by RolStoppable - on 18 December 2019

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Sony really drops the ball this year in Japan with a late promotion deal and discount. It should've already got a permanent price cut at this point.