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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict 2019 Japanese Sales (PS4/Switch Only)

The_Liquid_Laser on 18 December 2019

Actually, let me elaborate further.  OP says these were the Japanese sales for PS4 for the past two years.

PS4:
2017: 1,791,736
2018: 1,726,031

For this year our average prediction was 1.43m.  We all knew that PS4 was ready for a drop, but the drop has been a lot more than we expected.  In particular, holiday sales for PS4 have been extremely disappointing.  Just compare weeks 46-50 for the past 3 years.

Week 2017 2018 2019
46            27,352            18,365            8,094
47            27,167            27,415            7,073
48            33,421            22,069            8,626
49            84,366            74,847          41,401
50            62,313            83,892          11,216
Total          234,619          226,588          76,410

Look at how much holiday sales have dropped!  Sales are only about 1/3 this year of what they were for the corresponding weeks in 2017 and 2018.  I think we just found that cliff Mr. quickrick was talking about.  He simply had the wrong system.

So the question is, "why are PS4 sales dropping so hard?"  I don't really know.  But the most likely explanation is the Switch.  It's selling really great in Japan while PS4 sales are plummeting.  It looks like Switch sales are eating into the tail end of PS4 sales.  Afterall, not only did our group's average overestimate PS4 sales, but we also underestimated Switch sales.



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LGBTDBZBBQ on 18 December 2019

Next year is going to be more exciting than this year with the 2 new systems and how will Nintendo react against that.



zorg1000 on 18 December 2019
RolStoppable said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Actually, let me elaborate further.  OP says these were the Japanese sales for PS4 for the past two years.

PS4:
2017: 1,791,736
2018: 1,726,031

For this year our average prediction was 1.43m.  We all knew that PS4 was ready for a drop, but the drop has been a lot more than we expected.  In particular, holiday sales for PS4 have been extremely disappointing.  Just compare weeks 46-50 for the past 3 years.

(...)

Look at how much holiday sales have dropped!  Sales are only about 1/3 this year of what they were for the corresponding weeks in 2017 and 2018.  I think we just found that cliff Mr. quickrick was talking about.  He simply had the wrong system.

So the question is, "why are PS4 sales dropping so hard?"  I don't really know.  But the most likely explanation is the Switch.  It's selling really great in Japan while PS4 sales are plummeting.  It looks like Switch sales are eating into the tail end of PS4 sales.  Afterall, not only did our group's average overestimate PS4 sales, but we also underestimated Switch sales.

PS4 sales are dropping that hard during the holidays because the permanent price cut that people expected didn't come, and on top of that Sony didn't issue a several weeks long promotion like last year. So for the whole year it's a combination of Sony's refusal to cut the price and Switch having an impact on PS4 sales, with the PS4 price being the bigger reason between the two.

Also when looking at the year as a whole, having nothing come close to Monster Hunter is a huge reason for sales dropping.



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Slownenberg on 19 December 2019

Yup people totally overestimated PS4 and underestimated Switch. PS4 is dying hard with the holidays barely even registering as an event for PS4 in Japan, meanwhile Switch is killing it with the usual numbers despite only one major release in November and nothing in December. Next year Switch will probably do 10 times what PS4 does in Japan.



wombat123 on 19 December 2019
LGBTDBZBBQ said:
Next year is going to be more exciting than this year with the 2 new systems and how will Nintendo react against that.


Probably with a permanent price-cut while positioning the Switch as the default secondary platform for the PS4, PS5, XB1, SeXbox, PC and streaming services.  It's not fighting to be the platform where you play AAA multiplats and it provides a different experience/library compared to traditional consoles so people won't have to pick and choose between the Switch and the competition.  Nintendo's biggest problem is going to be whether they can continue to churn out enough desirable tentpole titles (and enough overall exclusives) each year.



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Jranation on 19 December 2019
Jranation said:
Switch: 4.5M
PS4: 1.3M

Sounds like I will be close to both of them. PS4 probably of by 150k 



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LGBTDBZBBQ on 20 December 2019
wombat123 said:
LGBTDBZBBQ said:
Next year is going to be more exciting than this year with the 2 new systems and how will Nintendo react against that.


Probably with a permanent price-cut while positioning the Switch as the default secondary platform for the PS4, PS5, XB1, SeXbox, PC and streaming services.  It's not fighting to be the platform where you play AAA multiplats and it provides a different experience/library compared to traditional consoles so people won't have to pick and choose between the Switch and the competition.  Nintendo's biggest problem is going to be whether they can continue to churn out enough desirable tentpole titles (and enough overall exclusives) each year.

I think Nintendo has already positioning the Switch as the default console that could stand on par against other gaming systems head on with the amount of softwares 1st party supports, in Japan Switch is already becoming the primary console of the country. The future looks bleak for the 4k twin Systems PS5 and XSX with the pricing in that country. PS4 barely move more than 10k units at the same MSRP as Switch and needed to cut 10k yen and free games promotion in order to sell at least 1/4 or 1/3 of what Switch is currently doing weekly.

Nintendo Switch is the undisputed king in Japan in this new gen era, this isn't about the matter of abdicating the Switch from that position but it's about surviving under that domination period of Switch for PS5 in order to not deserved the same fate as Vita against 3ds.



wombat123 on 20 December 2019
LGBTDBZBBQ said:
wombat123 said:


Probably with a permanent price-cut while positioning the Switch as the default secondary platform for the PS4, PS5, XB1, SeXbox, PC and streaming services.  It's not fighting to be the platform where you play AAA multiplats and it provides a different experience/library compared to traditional consoles so people won't have to pick and choose between the Switch and the competition.  Nintendo's biggest problem is going to be whether they can continue to churn out enough desirable tentpole titles (and enough overall exclusives) each year.

I think Nintendo has already positioning the Switch as the default console that could stand on par against other gaming systems head on with the amount of softwares 1st party supports, in Japan Switch is already becoming the primary console of the country. The future looks bleak for the 4k twin Systems PS5 and XSX with the pricing in that country. PS4 barely move more than 10k units at the same MSRP as Switch and needed to cut 10k yen and free games promotion in order to sell at least 1/4 or 1/3 of what Switch is currently doing weekly.

Nintendo Switch is the undisputed king in Japan in this new gen era, this isn't about the matter of abdicating the Switch from that position but it's about surviving under that domination period of Switch for PS5 in order to not deserved the same fate as Vita against 3ds.

Oh, I thought you were talking about worldwide because I assumed the consensus was that the Switch would dominate Japan for the entirety of its lifetime.  I agree; there really isn't anything that Sony or 3rd parties can offer for the PS5 that would make it competitive in Japan and even the few heavy hitters that 3rd parties can muster up exclusively for 9th gen platforms may not come for a while.  If anything, we'll probably see Sony and Japanese 3rd parties continue to prioritize Japan less and less with AAA games.



LGBTDBZBBQ on 26 December 2019

Will Famitsu release week 52 chart number this time or they just combined with week 1 like last year?



Ryng on 30 December 2019

Wish i didn't miss this thread, i love predictions :p
in the end numbers gonna be something like 4.5m for Switch and a bit less than 1.2m for PS4.

For 2020 i'll go with:
Switch - 4.7 million (expect this to be the peak year in japan)
PS5 - 800K (I expect a big launch and holiday, first year really will depend on games)
PS4 - 600K (about a 50% drop YOY because of PS5 seem fair)

Total hardware: +6.1 million (up YOY compared to around +5.7 million in 2019)