Predict 2019 Japanese Sales (PS4/Switch Only)

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Actually, let me elaborate further.  OP says these were the Japanese sales for PS4 for the past two years.

PS4:
2017: 1,791,736
2018: 1,726,031

For this year our average prediction was 1.43m.  We all knew that PS4 was ready for a drop, but the drop has been a lot more than we expected.  In particular, holiday sales for PS4 have been extremely disappointing.  Just compare weeks 46-50 for the past 3 years.

Week	2017	2018	2019
46	27,352	18,365	8,094
47	27,167	27,415	7,073
48	33,421	22,069	8,626
49	84,366	74,847	41,401
50	62,313	83,892	11,216
Total	234,619	226,588	76,410

Look at how much holiday sales have dropped!  Sales are only about 1/3 this year of what they were for the corresponding weeks in 2017 and 2018.  I think we just found that cliff Mr. quickrick was talking about.  He simply had the wrong system.

So the question is, "why are PS4 sales dropping so hard?"  I don't really know.  But the most likely explanation is the Switch.  It's selling really great in Japan while PS4 sales are plummeting.  It looks like Switch sales are eating into the tail end of PS4 sales.  Afterall, not only did our group's average overestimate PS4 sales, but we also underestimated Switch sales.