Predict 2019 Japanese Sales (PS4/Switch Only)

[The_Liquid_Laser]

RolStoppable said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Interesting that we as a group both underestimated the Switch and overestimated the PS4.  This is actually evidence for something I've been wondering for several weeks now.  Is the Switch eating into the tail end of PS4 sales?  It looks like it is.

People often observe that when a successor is released it causes sales of the previous console to decrease.  Well in Japan, Switch is seen as the successor to the PS4.  It's the must have system in Japan for the next several years.  It can function as a home console and has a lot of Japanese oriented games.  Nintendo first party, especially, appeals more to Japanese gamers than Sony first party does.  And the two systems are about the same price.  Why wouldn't a Japanese gamer just get a Switch instead?  From what I can tell, that is exactly what they are doing.

Partly right, partly wrong. Switch does have a negative effect on PS4 sales, but it's not because Switch is seen as the successor to the PS4.

If we look at multiple generations, we can see that the PS handheld has cut into PS home console sales because many PS2 developers moved on to the PSP, so the PS3 took a significant hit at the level below AAA software. The progression of gamers here is PSP to PSV/3DS to Switch, rather than PSP to PSV to PS4 after Sony's exit from the handheld market. It's the Vita owners who have to go somewhere and they aren't sticking with the PS brand, so the PS4 can't benefit. Neither will the PS5.

Read over your second paragraph again because it's contradictory. You say that Switch is seen as successor to the PS4 and then pose the question why not get a Switch instead. The latter part implies that such gamers do not own a PS4 yet, so talking about a perceived successor doesn't make sense.

I'm saying that conventional wisdom suggests that some people will not buy a PS4 when the PS5 releases.  They will just skip the PS4 and go onto the next gen console instead.  In this case though, the Switch is the next gen console.  So in Japan they will skip the PS4 and just buy the Switch instead.  This is what I mean by "why not just get a Switch instead?"