Predict 2019 Japanese Sales (PS4/Switch Only)

[The_Liquid_Laser]

RolStoppable said:

Here's the summary for this thread. Predictions that were longer than two decimals were mathematically rounded to two. For people who gave ranges, the middle of the range was fed into the average. For people who gave multiple predictions based on certain conditions being fulfilled, the predictions that had more of the listed conditions fulfilled were used. Empty cells mean that the predictor in question omitted one of the two consoles.

Switch	PS4	Ratio
3,75	1,38	2,72
4,90
3,80	1,60	2,38
5,00	1,20	4,17
4,50	1,30	3,46
4,90	1,35	3,63
5,00	1,80	2,78
4,50	1,60	2,81
4,50	1,40	3,21
4,13	1,35	3,06
4,50	1,40	3,21
4,50	1,50	3,00
4,00	1,50	2,67
4,00	1,50	2,67
	1,50
3,90	1,45	2,69
4,35	1,35	3,22
3,50	1,30	2,69
4,50	1,35	3,33
4,55	1,40	3,25
3,80	1,40	2,71
4,00	1,40	2,86
4,20	1,50	2,80
4,60	1,50	3,07
3,50	1,70	2,06
4,25	1,40	3,04
4,20	1,40	3,00
4,80	1,30	3,69
4,00	1,50	2,67
4,10	1,20	3,42
3,80	1,60	2,38
4,50	1,00	4,50
4,20	1,50	2,80
4,27	1,43	3,03

The bolded numbers at the bottom are the averages, so 4.27m for Switch and 1.43m for the PS4. The final tallies in a couple of weeks will see the average Switch prediction being too low by only a few percent while the margin of error for the PS4 will almost certainly exceed 25%. Only one PS4 prediction in this thread will have been lower than the actual result, so too much optimism across the board.

EDIT: Added another column for the ratio by which Switch was predicted to outsell the PS4 (a 3.03:1 ratio on average).

Interesting that we as a group both underestimated the Switch and overestimated the PS4.  This is actually evidence for something I've been wondering for several weeks now.  Is the Switch eating into the tail end of PS4 sales?  It looks like it is.

People often observe that when a successor is released it causes sales of the previous console to decrease.  Well in Japan, Switch is seen as the successor to the PS4.  It's the must have system in Japan for the next several years.  It can function as a home console and has a lot of Japanese oriented games.  Nintendo first party, especially, appeals more to Japanese gamers than Sony first party does.  And the two systems are about the same price.  Why wouldn't a Japanese gamer just get a Switch instead?  From what I can tell, that is exactly what they are doing.