It will certainly be a solid mover during the holidays but sales will diminish being the 3rd year of $199 bundles.
2016 saw PS4 sell 6.2 million in the holiday season
2017 saw PS4 sell 5.9 million in the holiday season
2018 saw PS4 sell 5.6 million in the holiday season
Holiday sales have decreased from 2016-2018 despite having better deals, which isnt a bad thing, its completely expected out of a console to decline in the 5th & 6th holiday seasons and I'm expecting that trend to continue regardless of how good the bundles/price cuts are this year.
Honestly I dont think it would make any kinda difference.
If TLOU2 were released off holiday season I see it resulting in no more than a 400k global spike in sales if at all.... and thats because of saturation. Right now the real sales driver will be price and not the game. If Sony drops the price to say $199 over november and december this year then they culd g n to have the best holiday sales in the PS4s history but numbers will drop right back down to whatever they will be for the next upcoming months.