What i have clear in my mind is that, if PS4 sells 16M (is what i expect for 2019) and Switch ends selling 17-18M ( i expect 17'5M to be precise, but this is just an example) in 2019, that means PS4 is going to be ahead during most of the year again, and only when holiday season comes, Switch will catch up like what happened in USA last year with a tremendous December.

That's why i think 2019 is going to be close for PS4 and Switch. Switch will only be ahead since the beginning if it ends selling more than 3-4M compared to PS4. And i know, there's some people here that expect 20M+ in 2019, but if Switch ends selling just 20-25% more in 2018 compared to 2017 (like it seems is happening in markets like UK, France and USA), that means Switch is going to be around 16M at best. So, although another 20-25% growth this year could be possible worldwide, i really don't expect that happening.

So PS4 selling 16M vs Swtich selling 17-18M would mean another fantastic year of sales for both. Then, by 2020 PS5 will be announced and PS4 sales will drop a lot more until PS5 launches by November 2020, but PS4 should be near 120M total sales by then.

On the software side, Spiderman, is going to keep selling, but reaching 15M it's going to take time, so people should not expect that if Spiderman is around 10-11M right now should reach 20M easily lifetime. If it sells 15M only on PS4 it will be a monumental success.

I don't know whether Switch's peak is now or in the future, but  if you read my reply to Kerotan you will see my reasons for thinking that the Switch may break away from past Nintendo console sales curves. 

Sure it can break it, but making predictions of not only it breaking it but increasing 50% 2018 to 2019 and then just 10% drop for the next 2 years are just to optmistic

100M By August pretty much locked!

Ups, i did not see your post.

16M is a scenario where a $50 discount comes around half of the year, and it's probably the best scenario. I'm more on the side of 15-16M than 16-17M if you know what i mean. 

PS4 without a PS5 announcement yet in 2019 won't fall to less than 15M in my opinion, even without price cuts.

Edit: And it could very well just ship 14M in FY 2019 and still sell around 15-16M as proved in previous years.

The 50% prediction sounds like someone's hopes being used to make a forecast , can you link who said that and did they underpin that with reasoning or just wishful thinking.

Drinkandswin (not alone on being overoptimistic, but to this extent I think only him).

Basically he thinks about Switch getting a HH pricetag in the future, and X1 and PS4 sales dropping a lot.

Plus of course Nintendo predicting this FY to be 20M (instead of probable 18M) made 25M for FY19, 22M for FY20  and 20M for FY21 (same as FY18) reasonable on his analysis.

So no  PS5 or XBOX 2 in his future horizon .

good prediction. I think earlier, a little bit :)

Resident Evil 2 remake and Kingdom Hearts 3 are getting very big, this month. And many other games on PS4 appear in the first quarter of 2019 (Days Gone, Jump Force, One Piece Game, Ace Combat 7, Catherine, ToV, Anthem, Devil May Cry 5, Dead or Alive 6 ect)

This will be the greatest party in vgchartz history. Return of the king.