The 50% prediction sounds like someone's hopes being used to make a forecast , can you link who said that and did they underpin that with reasoning or just wishful thinking.
Drinkandswin (not alone on being overoptimistic, but to this extent I think only him).
Basically he thinks about Switch getting a HH pricetag in the future, and X1 and PS4 sales dropping a lot.
Plus of course Nintendo predicting this FY to be 20M (instead of probable 18M) made 25M for FY19, 22M for FY20 and 20M for FY21 (same as FY18) reasonable on his analysis.
duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"
Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"
Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."