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Forums - Sony Discussion - PS4 sales surpass 91.6 million, Spiderman over 9 million

Intrinsic on 09 January 2019
colafitte said:

Yeah, you're right on point 1, so let me correct it. If PS4 receives a 100$ discount (it has to be this much of a discount, if not i guess they won't bother and they won't made any discounts), it will sell again 17-18M in 2019, if it not receives any kind of discount in 2019, PS4 will sell 15-16M.

TLOU II, i can guarantee you is going to be way bigger than GOW and Spiderman. TLOU is the most popular mainstream game Sony has, by far. TLOU remastered must have sold 10M  only on PS4 (more than the original on PS3) and it was just a port/remaster. Its popularity is huge and everytime there is a news about TLOU there is this anticipitacion in number of views on videos, number of comments in threads, news, etc that any other PS exclusive haven't match ever. TLOU II is going to be the biggest and most succesful PS launch when it launches and i'm pretty sure it will beat Spiderman and GOW records of sales in its first 3 days. As for the rest i was naming just a few. We still don't know what games will be during 2nd half of the year but as of right now, PS4 still has the best library of games any console can offer right now, so people will still want to buy a console in 2019.

Like i said, PS4 lineup this year is probably going to be as good as 2017 and 2018. And when i say PS5 and next box are not yet in the horizon, i mean "officially". When PS5 becames officialy announced is when PS4 sales will start to drop more seriously, but until then??, just a normal drop YOY. What i'm pretty sure is that without any official PS5 yet in 2019, PS4 won't fall from 18M to 13M, even without pricecuts, that't simply just too much. No PS console has drop so much YOY without a new console officially coming so it won't happen. 15-16M should be the lowest anyone must expect PS4 doing in 2019.

I have some somewhat radical views on these.....

  1. TLOU2 and DS will not come in 2019. They will come in the launch window of the PS5 (within the first 6 months) and will be cross platform. In 2019 what we will et as exclusives from sony will be Days Gone and Dreams.

  2. PS5 will launch in March 2020. Last time sony did a march launch was with the PS2. This allows them launch at $499 and then drop its price to $399 in time for the holidays 2020. Early adopters will be willing to pay that much for the system. 

  3. Do not expect a price drop from sony this year or at least anytime before PSX 2019 (there will be the usual $199 promotional pricing in november). For sony to drop the price permanently (and probably during their PSX 2019 PS5 reveal event) the PS4 will have to be tracking at around 2014 (14M) type numbers for all of 2019. Only then will sony feel it necessary to drop their price. But if its tracking to hit like 16M in sales for 2019 sony will not drop the price until the PS5 is released. 

  4. PS5 will be $500 worth of hardware, so even selling at $499 sony will just be breaking even. But its price will be dropped to $399 within the first 6 months to a year of its release, this is also based on how much the next Xbox costs. If MS also makes a $500 box then both will not drop price early. Sony will be willing to take a considerable loss on the hardware ($100) especially fr the first year when it probably will not sell more than 15M of them. This possibility is probably why sony has been very resistant to dropping the price of the PS4 now and also something that having sold over 100M PS4s (alon with all the PS+ subs they are amassing) by the time of the PS5 launch affords them.

  5. Having a game like TLOU2 as a PS5 launch title is crucial to all this.   


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Bofferbrauer2 on 09 January 2019
colafitte said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

1. If a pricecut would only affect 1M in sales, I'm very sure Sony wouldn't even bother.

2. TLOU2 may be bigger than GoW (not so sure about Spiderman anymore), but the first one is on the PS4 as well, so it's Playerbase most probably has a PS4 already. Same goes for RE2, Division 2, DMC5 and Anthem (which basically is just EA's version of the Division), while Rage is much smaller than the other named games. That leaves KH3, which should be in the ballpark of MHW at best. Days Gone and Dreams look nice, but I don't believe that they have nearly as much draw power as Spiderman or GoW, and I seriously doubt Death Stranding getting released this year.

4. PS4 has been down by 2M despite an outstanding games lineup. Like I explained before, I think this year's PS4 lineup, while miles away from bad, isn't just as stellar as last year's lineup, and saturation is starting to kick in more and more. Oh, and if PS5 and XBN are not yet on the horizon, why then is there so much talk about them? They haven't been officially unveiled yet, but their hype is slowly mounting all while the one of the PS4 and XBO are slowly deflating. That's not saying that the PS4 won't sell well anymore, I just don't see it doing anywhere near 17M anymore, 13-15M is more what I would expect.


TLOU II, i can guarantee you is going to be way bigger than GOW and Spiderman. TLOU is the most popular mainstream game Sony has, by far. TLOU remastered must have sold 10M  only on PS4 (more than the original on PS3) and it was just a port/remaster. Its popularity is huge and everytime there is a news about TLOU there is this anticipitacion in number of views on videos, number of comments in threads, news, etc that any other PS exclusive haven't match ever. TLOU II is going to be the biggest and most succesful PS launch when it launches and i'm pretty sure it will beat Spiderman and GOW records of sales in its first 3 days. As for the rest i was naming just a few. We still don't know what games will be during 2nd half of the year but as of right now, PS4 still has the best library of games any console can offer right now, so people will still want to buy a console in 2019.

Like i said, PS4 lineup this year is probably going to be as good as 2017 and 2018. And when i say PS5 and next box are not yet in the horizon, i mean "officially". When PS5 becames officialy announced is when PS4 sales will start to drop more seriously, but until then??, just a normal drop YOY. What i'm pretty sure is that without any official PS5 yet in 2019, PS4 won't fall from 18M to 13M, even without pricecuts, that't simply just too much. No PS console has drop so much YOY without a new console officially coming so it won't happen. 15-16M should be the lowest anyone must expect PS4 doing in 2019.

One year ago, I would have agreed. By now however, not so much anymore.

Sure, TLOU sold 17M but that was between 2 consoles with many buying the game again on the PS4. If it only would have been released on one console, I think it would "only" have sold between 11 and 13M, the rest being double dips. PS4 got Spiderman and that one sold through 9M until BF and certainly is in those 11-13M by now; add to that the likes of RDR2 (who also sold about as much on the PS4 alone) and you got already 2 against 1 (I don't count CoD or Fifa and the like because they're annualized and their audience is already on the platform anyway) and GoW is probably bigger than anything else that will come out next year. Hence why I think next years lineup is weaker than this years.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

colafitte on 09 January 2019
Intrinsic said:
colafitte said:

Yeah, you're right on point 1, so let me correct it. If PS4 receives a 100$ discount (it has to be this much of a discount, if not i guess they won't bother and they won't made any discounts), it will sell again 17-18M in 2019, if it not receives any kind of discount in 2019, PS4 will sell 15-16M.

TLOU II, i can guarantee you is going to be way bigger than GOW and Spiderman. TLOU is the most popular mainstream game Sony has, by far. TLOU remastered must have sold 10M  only on PS4 (more than the original on PS3) and it was just a port/remaster. Its popularity is huge and everytime there is a news about TLOU there is this anticipitacion in number of views on videos, number of comments in threads, news, etc that any other PS exclusive haven't match ever. TLOU II is going to be the biggest and most succesful PS launch when it launches and i'm pretty sure it will beat Spiderman and GOW records of sales in its first 3 days. As for the rest i was naming just a few. We still don't know what games will be during 2nd half of the year but as of right now, PS4 still has the best library of games any console can offer right now, so people will still want to buy a console in 2019.

Like i said, PS4 lineup this year is probably going to be as good as 2017 and 2018. And when i say PS5 and next box are not yet in the horizon, i mean "officially". When PS5 becames officialy announced is when PS4 sales will start to drop more seriously, but until then??, just a normal drop YOY. What i'm pretty sure is that without any official PS5 yet in 2019, PS4 won't fall from 18M to 13M, even without pricecuts, that't simply just too much. No PS console has drop so much YOY without a new console officially coming so it won't happen. 15-16M should be the lowest anyone must expect PS4 doing in 2019.

I have some somewhat radical views on these.....

 

  1. TLOU2 and DS will not come in 2019. They will come in the launch window of the PS5 (within the first 6 months) and will be cross platform. In 2019 what we will et as exclusives from sony will be Days Gone and Dreams.

  2. PS5 will launch in March 2020. Last time sony did a march launch was with the PS2. This allows them launch at $499 and then drop its price to $399 in time for the holidays 2020. Early adopters will be willing to pay that much for the system. 

  3. Do not expect a price drop from sony this year or at least anytime before PSX 2019 (there will be the usual $199 promotional pricing in november). For sony to drop the price permanently (and probably during their PSX 2019 PS5 reveal event) the PS4 will have to be tracking at around 2014 (14M) type numbers for all of 2019. Only then will sony feel it necessary to drop their price. But if its tracking to hit like 16M in sales for 2019 sony will not drop the price until the PS5 is released. 

  4. PS5 will be $500 worth of hardware, so even selling at $499 sony will just be breaking even. But its price will be dropped to $399 within the first 6 months to a year of its release, this is also based on how much the next Xbox costs. If MS also makes a $500 box then both will not drop price early. Sony will be willing to take a considerable loss on the hardware ($100) especially fr the first year when it probably will not sell more than 15M of them. This possibility is probably why sony has been very resistant to dropping the price of the PS4 now and also something that having sold over 100M PS4s (alon with all the PS+ subs they are amassing) by the time of the PS5 launch affords them.

  5. Having a game like TLOU2 as a PS5 launch title is crucial to all this.   

 

They are, "in fact", some radical opinions.....

 

1. TLOU 2 is coming maaaan, i can feel it. Sony needs a huge blockbuster 1st party game for the holiday season. They always have one, and it's not going to be Dreams or Ghost of Tsushima, so it will be Death Stranding and/or The Last of Us Part II and i bet in the latter.

2. I was team early 2020 for PS5 too, but i think Sony will wait until 2020 to announce PS5 and launch at the end of the yeat to maximize PS4 hardware and software sales. There's still a lot of sales on PS4 life.

3. They will make a price cut if they're feeling they sell less than 16M, and because i'm not betting it will sell less than 16M, consequently probably won't exist a price cut either, but it could go either way.

4. After seeing what PS4 was capable to do, i'm not expecting PS4 launching anything more than 400$ and there won't be any price cuts after launch. Price cuts during 1st or 2nd year of life are bad press and bad vibes. It makes it seem like the console is not doing well and you need to cut the price. So because I expect PS5 to be even more succesful than PS4 at lauch, i don't expect anything of this.

5. TLOU II will inevitably come to PS5, but just after having sold 15M already on PS4 after more than a year in the market.

 

But yeah, your predictions are bold and fun. Nothing wrong with them! We'll see who is right.



Nate4Drake on 09 January 2019

Congrats to Sony, Santa Monica, Insomniac and everybody for the massive PS4 success.
My estimate is always the same, 108M by the end of 2019, and 130M+ by the end of its life cycle.



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

colafitte on 09 January 2019
Bofferbrauer2 said:
colafitte said:


TLOU II, i can guarantee you is going to be way bigger than GOW and Spiderman. TLOU is the most popular mainstream game Sony has, by far. TLOU remastered must have sold 10M  only on PS4 (more than the original on PS3) and it was just a port/remaster. Its popularity is huge and everytime there is a news about TLOU there is this anticipitacion in number of views on videos, number of comments in threads, news, etc that any other PS exclusive haven't match ever. TLOU II is going to be the biggest and most succesful PS launch when it launches and i'm pretty sure it will beat Spiderman and GOW records of sales in its first 3 days. As for the rest i was naming just a few. We still don't know what games will be during 2nd half of the year but as of right now, PS4 still has the best library of games any console can offer right now, so people will still want to buy a console in 2019.

Like i said, PS4 lineup this year is probably going to be as good as 2017 and 2018. And when i say PS5 and next box are not yet in the horizon, i mean "officially". When PS5 becames officialy announced is when PS4 sales will start to drop more seriously, but until then??, just a normal drop YOY. What i'm pretty sure is that without any official PS5 yet in 2019, PS4 won't fall from 18M to 13M, even without pricecuts, that't simply just too much. No PS console has drop so much YOY without a new console officially coming so it won't happen. 15-16M should be the lowest anyone must expect PS4 doing in 2019.

One year ago, I would have agreed. By now however, not so much anymore.

Sure, TLOU sold 17M but that was between 2 consoles with many buying the game again on the PS4. If it only would have been released on one console, I think it would "only" have sold between 11 and 13M, the rest being double dips. PS4 got Spiderman and that one sold through 9M until BF and certainly is in those 11-13M by now; add to that the likes of RDR2 (who also sold about as much on the PS4 alone) and you got already 2 against 1 (I don't count CoD or Fifa and the like because they're annualized and their audience is already on the platform anyway) and GoW is probably bigger than anything else that will come out next year. Hence why I think next years lineup is weaker than this years.

We will need to bet on that then...XD.

But tell me then...How many new IP's on its first game have sold 11-13M anyway, became GOTY caliber and then its sequel did not sell way more than the original?? All the other succesful games in the last 10 years that have sold 10M or more were established new IP's, so yeah, TLOU is special. And Naughty Dog is Rockstar levels of popularity in terms of respect and brand recognition. People, hard gamers and mainstream gamers alike are awaiting this game since even before it was annouced. It will define an entire generation. 

If GOW did 3'1M....TLOU II definitively will do more than that, and not just only 0'2M more like SpiderMan.



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Intrinsic on 09 January 2019
colafitte said: 

1. TLOU 2 is coming maaaan, i can feel it. Sony needs a huge blockbuster 1st party game for the holiday season. They always have one, and it's not going to be Dreams or Ghost of Tsushima, so it will be Death Stranding and/or The Last of Us Part II and i bet in the latter.

Thats the thing..... sony doesnt need anything for the 2019 holiday season. My reasoning here is I am looking at it from a Fiscal Year perspective. If the PS4 launches in the 4Q 2019 FY that means it launches between january and march 2020. If TLOU2 is released anytime from april 2019 to march ending 2020 then it will still cunt for the Apr 2019- Mar 2020 FY. But holding off the release to be a launch title for the PS5 while also being available for the PS4 ensures it still gets the sales n the PS4 and that there is a big game to launch the PS5 with. 

The PS4 would already be at 100M by september this year. They have RE2, KH3, Dreams and Days gone this year alon with all the usual Multiplatform games. They can ride out this year and build up for an early 2020 launch.

colafitte said: 

2. I was team early 2020 for PS5 too, but i think Sony will wait until 2020 to announce PS5 and launch at the end of the yeat to maximize PS4 hardware and software sales. There's still a lot of sales on PS4 life.

 

They dont have to "maximize" PS4 sales. At this point they dont have much more to gain. Especially considering the people buying a console for $400-$500 are not the people buying it for $200-$250 which are the people buying a PS4 between fall this year and fall next year. Everything they need to make a PS5 that will release in fall 2020 will be available by fall 2019 and the only issue may be games. Thats the only reason they will not release early 2020, if there are no games to launch with the system.

Just remember, in its first year and at $400 - $500 the PS5 is for those that bought a PS4 in 2013-2014 or a PS4pro in 2016. Not for those who will only buy it when it costs $300 two or three years later.

colafitte said: 

3. They will make a price cut if they're feeling they sell less than 16M, and because i'm not betting it will sell less than 16M, consequently probably won't exist a price cut either, but it could go either way.

 

Yup..... sony is at 91.6M now. Even if the sell only 15M for 2019 that will put them at 107M'ish. Which probably means they would have shipped around 110M. If they can accomplish that while keeping the price the same then sony will be more than happy to do that. And I believe they can. 



Evilms on 09 January 2019

An interesting comparison between the PS4 and Wii over the years.



Welfare on 09 January 2019

Let's see how VGC lines up with PS4's sales history.

2.1M as of December 1st, 2013 | 2,133,547 (Basically spot on)
4.2M as of December 28th, 2013 | 4,193,840 (Could increase it to hit 4.2M)
5.3M as of February 8th, 2014 | 5,419,498 (Over 119K)
6.0M as of March 2nd, 2014 | 6,251,669 (Over 250K)
7.0M as of April 6th, 2014 | 7,194,368 (Over 194K)
10.0M as of August 10th, 2014 | 9,983,454 (Under 17K)
14.4M as of November 23rd, 2014 | 14,762,521 (Over 362K)
18.5M as of January 4th, 2015 | 19,085,306 (Over 585K)
20.2M as of March 1st. 2015 | 20,734,584 (Over 535K)
30.2M as of November 22nd, 2015 | 30,568,994 (Over 369K)
35.9M as of January 3rd, 2016 | 36,667,145 (Over 767K)

Up to this point absolutely no adjustments have been made since I pointed them out in late 2017.

40.0M as of May 22nd, 2016 | 40,125,223 (Over 125K)
47.2M as of November 20th, 2016 | 47,440,477 (Over 240K)
50.0M as of December 6th, 2016 | 50,637,094 (Unknown as this is a mid week update)
53.4M as of January 1st, 2017 | 53,490,988 (Practically right)
60.4M as of June 11th, 2017 | 60,366,899 (Under 33K)
67.7M as of November 19th, 2017 | 68,069,292 (Over 369K)
70.6M as of December 3rd, 2017 | 70,558,427 (Under 42K)
73.6M as of December 31st, 2017 | 73,739,516 (Over 139K)
81.2M as of July 22nd, 2018 | 81,401,414 (Over 201K)
86.0M as of November 18th, 2018 | 86,427,462 (Over 427K)

91.6M as of December 31st, 2018 | ??? (That's a Monday so week ending December 29th should be slightly lower, probably 91.5M)



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

JRPGfan on 09 January 2019
Evilms said:

An interesting comparison between the PS4 and Wii over the years.

The big thing is the Playstation consoles usually have longer legs than Nintendo systems.
Even in 2019, Im expecting 16m+ sold for the year.



Keiji on 09 January 2019
JRPGfan said:
Evilms said:

An interesting comparison between the PS4 and Wii over the years.

The big thing is the Playstation consoles usually have longer legs than Nintendo systems.
Even in 2019, Im expecting 16m+ sold for the year.

Yes. At least 15M in my opinion this year for PS4.