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Forums - Sales - Japan Sales Week 51 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - December 17-23, 2018

curl-6 on 27 December 2018
tak13 said:
curl-6 said:

It wasn't though, and that can't be proven. As it happened, 3DS had mediocre sales even at $250 and had to be half Switch's price just to sell well. By this point in its life, 3DS had already played the price cut and hardware revision cards. Switch hasn't yet, so Switch has more room to grow from here than 3DS did.

I just expressed a concern, which has been intensified from the fact that I was confirmed about its sales in December, always compared to 3ds.

I'm pretty sure that you belong to the majority that was expecting NS selling 350k+ in week 51 and surpassing 7m by the end of 2018. 

As for the bolded, I agree, haven't you distinguished that from my posts regarding NS lite? 

Actually no, I never once expressed this belief. 



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Farsala on 27 December 2018
tak13 said:
curl-6 said:

It wasn't though, and that can't be proven. As it happened, 3DS had mediocre sales even at $250 and had to be half Switch's price just to sell well. By this point in its life, 3DS had already played the price cut and hardware revision cards. Switch hasn't yet, so Switch has more room to grow from here than 3DS did.

I just expressed a concern, which has been intensified from the fact that I was confirmed about its sales in December, always compared to 3ds.

I'm pretty sure that you belong to the majority that was expecting NS selling 350k+ in week 51 and surpassing 7m by the end of 2018. 

As for the bolded, I agree, haven't you distinguished that from my posts regarding NS lite? 

I only had 2 takers actually predict the sales of the Switch for the holidays, so although while many people said things like the 350k+ weeks, none really wanted to put their prediction mettle on the line aside from Zorg and Megiddo.

With the 3 of us that actually predicted to be fair, we haven't been too far off.



Megiddo on 27 December 2018

To be perfectly candid, I expected a ~100k raise in Switch units from week 50 to week 51 in my original predictions. While I never vocalized exactly that it would sell 350k+ I did mention in last week's thread that I expected a sizeable bump for this week. Either way adding up my predictions I'm tracking about 65-70k under the Switch's current totals, so even if it was a slightly disappointing week 51 it is still ahead of my expectations.
 



zorg1000 on 27 December 2018
Farsala said:
tak13 said:

I just expressed a concern, which has been intensified from the fact that I was confirmed about its sales in December, always compared to 3ds.

I'm pretty sure that you belong to the majority that was expecting NS selling 350k+ in week 51 and surpassing 7m by the end of 2018. 

As for the bolded, I agree, haven't you distinguished that from my posts regarding NS lite? 

I only had 2 takers actually predict the sales of the Switch for the holidays, so although while many people said things like the 350k+ weeks, none really wanted to put their prediction mettle on the line aside from Zorg and Megiddo.

With the 3 of us that actually predicted to be fair, we haven't been too far off.

Week 47-51 predictions

Zorg1000-1300k

Megiddo-1000k

Farsala-1040k

Average-1113k

Actual-1068k

You and Megiddo are slightly under while I'm over moderately. So like you said, overall we are quite close.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

tak13 on 27 December 2018
curl-6 said:
tak13 said:

I just expressed a concern, which has been intensified from the fact that I was confirmed about its sales in December, always compared to 3ds.

I'm pretty sure that you belong to the majority that was expecting NS selling 350k+ in week 51 and surpassing 7m by the end of 2018. 

As for the bolded, I agree, haven't you distinguished that from my posts regarding NS lite? 

Actually no, I never once expressed this belief. 

Not even the 7m thing? Because  ipso facto this was implying an expectation for a 350k+ selling week!



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curl-6 on 27 December 2018
tak13 said:
curl-6 said:

Actually no, I never once expressed this belief. 

Not even the 7m thing? Because  ipso facto this was implying an expectation for a 350k+ selling week!

Nope, neither prediction was ever made by me.



zorg1000 on 27 December 2018
tak13 said:
curl-6 said:

Actually no, I never once expressed this belief. 

Not even the 7m thing? Because  ipso facto this was implying an expectation for a 350k+ selling week!

What point are you really trying to make? Its going to end the year over 6.8 million which is less than 3% off from 7 million.

You're acting like everyone was massively off and you're the only one who was close.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

HoangNhatAnh on 27 December 2018
tak13 said:
HoangNhatAnh said:

Heh, 3ds at that time: $175, Switch at the moment: $300, see the different? It's amusing to see you forget or ignore this thing on purpose

Of course I ignore it, because NS is a 300$ home and handheld console, not a 300$ handheld-only console... 

Call me when anyone in Japan use Switch as a home console



tak13 on 27 December 2018
tak13 said:
Miyamotoo said:

I didnt said 350k week, last week I wrote we will most likely have 300k+ this week. Last year Switch in same period had Zelda BotW, MK8D, Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey, this year until November and Pokemon Switch didnt had nothing similar strong.

Your problem is that you ignoring fact that 3DS done incredible strong in Japan, maybe you dont realise but 3DS become 3rd best selling gaming platform ever in Japan, you also ignoring fact that 3DS needed huge ass price cut (from $250 to $170) only 6 months after launch in order to start selling better. So with all that on mind, point that Switch (with still launch price and launch model) is selling less than 3DS in same time period doesnt mean that Switch is not doing very good in any case, because it does. Japan market look at Switch primarly like handheld device, and you can bet that for plenty people in Japan $300 is too much for handheld device, I can bet that Switch sales will realy explode in Japan only when Switch have price point of around $200.

Simple Switch would sell with new releases. Did you maybe saw just already confirmed Switch games for 2019. in Japan: NSMBU, Luigis Mansion 3, Yokai Watch 4, Dragon Quest 11, Animal Crossing, Pokemon Gen 8...are just some of already confirmed Switch games for 2019.

In 2019. Switch will entered in its 3. year on market, both price cut and revision are expected, but whats impressive is that Switch maintain to have strong sales without need for price cut (and that wasnt case with 3DS).

Haven't you read it, I have already mentioned that.... 

Although, I disagree a bit with your wording. 

Some Japanese people view it as an ( expensive) handheld-only console ( something  that is vexing me  a lot ) , not the market as a whole, otherwise NS sales wouldn't be that high. 

 

tak13 said:
curl-6 said:

Apology accepted.

Others have already addressed this at length, but it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to compare sales curves between a system that's still full price, (30,000 Yen I believe) to one that got a big price cut early on and at this point in its life was half the Switch's price. Naturally the Switch, having yet to receive any price cuts or hardware revisions, won't have hit its stride yet. Once these arrive, things are going to get better for the Switch, not worse.

Then why we do that when it comes to West? Eh?

It is a hybrid system, its price shouldn't be a disadvantage but sadly it is, because some Japanese people don't give a f@ck for home gaming on tv and view it as a handheld- only console at an exorbitant price, therefore there's need for an NS lite. 

What I'm insisting is that 3ds price point isn't a real advantage, it would be if NS was only a portable console. 

NS sales in the west support that! 

 

HoangNhatAnh said:
tak13 said:

Of course I ignore it, because NS is a 300$ home and handheld console, not a 300$ handheld-only console... 

Call me when anyone in Japan use Switch as a home console

We exhausted that topic, see the posts above.

I'm looking forward to the NS lite release! 



curl-6 on 27 December 2018
tak13 said:

I'm looking forward to the NS lite release! 

While hardware revisions for the NS are so obvious and advisable a move as to be basically a foregone conclusion unless Nintendo's run by monkeys, if you're holding out hope for a purely portable version, you may be disappointed as that would rather defeat the central premise of the "Switch". Altering the size of the unit too much would disrupt compatibility with the dock and Joycons.