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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 51 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - December 17-23, 2018

tak13 said:

@Rolstoppable
I was referring to this post by me.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8919651
A discussion with zorg but I also had miyamoto in my mind ( or many other people, because the expectations of the majority was the same with zorgs') when I was writing that...

Yes, I was expecting some 300k+ weeks, we didnt got 300k+ weeks but we got 280k weeks 3 times in a row, so not big difference in any case compared to 300k+ week.

Also your claim that "ns has a problem in Japan, which in the long run will become more and more visible" is pure nonsense, Switch has very good sales in Japan in any case and with price cut and revision sales can be only better.



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tak13 said:
Eagle367 said:

Wait we are helping the 3ds in US because if we take profitability in the west, the switch just destroys the 3ds. So we are taking the lowest common denoidenomi in both cases and I feel that is being fair. What do you see in that which you think is wrong?

 

The wrong thing is that some people here behave like they won't care at all if NS sells as much as or a bit more than wii in Japan , so half of 3ds ( this is its potential as it is now ) because of the huge amount of profits that it will be making ( which in most cases matter more) , when they exculting on npd threads about sales difference between 3DS and NS.

There is a contradiction!

Again that is not wrong since If we gush over the profit of the switch in the US, that;d be too damn much compared to the 3ds. So we are tkaintthe least common denominator in both cases .We are giving the asvantaad to 3ds in US and switch in Japan. How is that a contradiction?



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

RolStoppable said:
tak13 said:

It's amusing to see people that celebrate so much on npd threads about how much the home and handheld console NS outpaces the handheld console 3ds in the USA, while here they give prominence only to profitability...
Just admit it, ns has a problem in Japan, which in the long run will become more and more visible.
I had warned people to not expect more than 300k in the biggest week for sales, ns simply doesn't have that potential.
Some Japanese people haven't embraced the hybrid nature of ns and the value that this actuality offers unlike the majority of consumers in the west, they view it as an expensive handheld-only console.
Hence, you can't expect 3ds level weekly sales, smash bros just inflated the sales of the previous recent weeks ( you ignored the fact that it was released in the first week of holidays and let that to lead you to wrong conclusions).
Ns lite will come to the rescue!

Looks a lot like you want to claim to be right about things you've said in 2017, but unfortunately for you, there isn't a problem. That Switch will receive price cuts and revisions during its lifecycle was totally expected, so it not matching the 3DS's pace (a console that at this point in its life already had price cut and revision) is seriously not a problem. That you say that this imagined problem will become more and more visible over time makes absolutely no sense when everyone, including you, expects price cuts and revisions during the Switch's lifecycle, two things that will stabilize and prolong sales for years to come.

It's not a revelation that the number of people who are willing to buy Switch for 30k yen is lower than the number of people who were willing to buy a 3DS for 15k yen. Switch and 3DS have different sales curves, but when the circumstances of both consoles are considered, it's not farfetched at all that they end up with similar lifetime sales in Japan. The 3DS's early price cut and revision made sales more frontloaded while Switch's lack of those will result in higher sales in later years.

In any case, as far as I remember your main point made in 2017, Nintendo was supposed to bring a price cut/revision no later than in 2018 because of that lack of value as a hybrid console. But in reality, there was no rush to do either one of those two things.

tak13 said:

Is that valid or your usual hyperbole?

Has any direct comparison been done? I mean excluding wii u for obvious reasons. 

It's absolutely valid and true. The 3DS made losses in its first two full fiscal years, so over its lifetime it only made that back and then some profit. Profit-wise, there's simply no contest between 3DS and Switch, because Switch has already won that in a comfortable manner and still several years of its life left. The 3DS's profits can't be accurately quantified, but any credible estimate will put Switch's first two years above the 3DS's lifetime because a graph of Nintendo's overall profits during all relevant years shows a huge discrepancy between those two generations.

tak13 said:

The wrong thing is that some people here behave like they won't care at all if NS sells as much as or a bit more than wii in Japan , so half of 3ds ( this is its potential as it is now ) because of the huge amount of profits that it will be making ( which in most cases matter more) , when they exculting on npd threads about sales difference between 3DS and NS.

There is a contradiction!

It's not a contradiction. It's simply a fact that Switch beats the 3DS in every possible metric in America and Europe, so the primary metric (unit sales) unsurprisingly happens to be the one focused on the most. Unit sales are the only thing where the Switch is behind the 3DS in Japan, so the obvious answer to all the people who want to detract from Switch's success by using unit sales as the sole metric is to point out other important metrics, such as profits.

Additionally, there is really no good reason to be concerned if Switch doesn't beat 3DS's lifetime sales in Japan, because Switch will beat the 3DS everywhere else by a comfortable margin. As a quick example for argument's sake, if Switch loses to the 3DS in Japan by 5m while it beats the 3DS by 10m each in America and Europe, that's still a net gain of 15m; then someone might jump in and say, "But is Switch really a success when it sold just as much as 3DS and Wii U combined," and then reasonable people will point to profits where Switch sits $10 billion above 3DS and Wii U combined.

Exactly this. I don't know where the dude above thinks the contradiction is but it's crystal clear that the metrics of judgement between switch and 3ds are fair and make sense



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

xAcEx said:
Eagle367 said:

From Canada and don't understand how I can buy shares from Nintendo. Any help will be appreciated


There are serevall options. You can directly buy on the Tokio Exchange in Yen, OTC with the Symbol  NTDOY in USD. I bought it in Germany at Tradegate in Euro.

So it depends what options your Bank or Broker give to you. 

I'm a rookie and don't understand this stuff. Should I just contact my bank and ask them?

Last edited by Eagle367 - on 27 December 2018

Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Miyamotoo said:
tak13 said:

@Rolstoppable
I was referring to this post by me.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8919651
A discussion with zorg but I also had miyamoto in my mind ( or many other people, because the expectations of the majority was the same with zorgs') when I was writing that...

Yes, I was expecting some 300k+ weeks, we didnt got 300k+ weeks but we got 280k weeks 3 times in a row, so not big difference in any case compared to 300k+ week.

Also your claim that "ns has a problem in Japan, which in the long run will become more and more visible" is pure nonsense, Switch has very good sales in Japan in any case and with price cut and revision sales can be only better.

And 350k+ in week 51 right? Voila, 280k and prior to pokemon, smash and bundles release, it had gone yoy down compared to a year that it was supply constrained. 

NS problem is that while it destroys the way cheaper 3ds in the west and sells as much as 3ds+wii u or even a bit more, which is what is meant to do since it is both handheld and home console for 300$, in Japan it's trailing 3ds for 3m and it will get worse.

What happens untill hat speculative revision or price drop arrives? 

Fortunately, it won't be long till that, there is a rumor about revision releasing in 2019, hopefully it will be an NS lite, it makes more sense... 

Last edited by tak13 - on 27 December 2018

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tak13 said:
Miyamotoo said:

Yes, I was expecting some 300k+ weeks, we didnt got 300k+ weeks but we got 280k weeks 3 times in a row, so not big difference in any case compared to 300k+ week.

Also your claim that "ns has a problem in Japan, which in the long run will become more and more visible" is pure nonsense, Switch has very good sales in Japan in any case and with price cut and revision sales can be only better.

And 350k+ in week 51 right? Voila, 280k and before pokemon, smash and bundles release, it has gone yoy down while it was supply constrained last year. 

NS problem is that while it destroys the way cheaper 3ds in the west and sells as much as 3ds+wii u or even a bit more, which is what is meant to do since it is both handheld and home console for 300$, in Japan it's trailing 3ds for 3m and it will get worse...

What happens untill hat speculative revision or price drop arrives? 

Fortunately, it won't be long till that, there is a rumor about revision releasing in 2019, hopefully it will be an NS lite, it makes more sense... 

I didnt said 350k week, last week I wrote we will most likely have 300k+ this week. Last year Switch in same period had Zelda BotW, MK8D, Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey, this year until November and Pokemon Switch didnt had nothing similar strong.

Your problem is that you ignoring fact that 3DS done incredible strong in Japan, maybe you dont realise but 3DS become 3rd best selling gaming platform ever in Japan, you also ignoring fact that 3DS needed huge ass price cut (from $250 to $170) only 6 months after launch in order to start selling better. So with all that on mind, point that Switch (with still launch price and launch model) is selling less than 3DS in same time period doesnt mean that Switch is not doing very good in any case, because it does. Ask yourself why 3DS had huge price cut only 6 months after launch and it was selling with loss, while Switch still has launch price point and its selling with profit from launch? I mean they could easily made price cut for Switch also, but they dont need because Switch sales are very good in any case and they are making great profit with Switch in any case (bigger than they did with 3DS despite 3DS sold better in some time period in Japan). Japan market look at Switch primarly like handheld device, and you can bet that for plenty people in Japan $300 is too much for handheld device, and I can bet that Switch sales will realy explode in Japan only when Switch have price point of around $200, because than will Switch start selling like Nintendo handhelds usually sell in Japan.

Simple Switch would sell with new releases. Did you maybe saw just already confirmed Switch games for 2019. in Japan: NSMBU, Luigis Mansion 3, Yokai Watch 4, Dragon Quest 11, Animal Crossing, Pokemon Gen 8..are just some of already confirmed Switch games for 2019. and we are still in 2018.

In 2019. Switch will entere in its 3. year on market, both price cut and revision are expected, but whats impressive is that Switch maintain to have strong sales without need for price cut (and that wasnt case with 3DS).

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 27 December 2018

Miyamotoo said:
tak13 said:

And 350k+ in week 51 right? Voila, 280k and before pokemon, smash and bundles release, it has gone yoy down while it was supply constrained last year. 

NS problem is that while it destroys the way cheaper 3ds in the west and sells as much as 3ds+wii u or even a bit more, which is what is meant to do since it is both handheld and home console for 300$, in Japan it's trailing 3ds for 3m and it will get worse...

What happens untill hat speculative revision or price drop arrives? 

Fortunately, it won't be long till that, there is a rumor about revision releasing in 2019, hopefully it will be an NS lite, it makes more sense... 

I didnt said 350k week, last week I wrote we will most likely have 300k+ this week. Last year Switch in same period had Zelda BotW, MK8D, Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey, this year until November and Pokemon Switch didnt had nothing similar strong.

Your problem is that you ignoring fact that 3DS done incredible strong in Japan, maybe you dont realise but 3DS become 3rd best selling gaming platform ever in Japan, you also ignoring fact that 3DS needed huge ass price cut (from $250 to $170) only 6 months after launch in order to start selling better. So with all that on mind, point that Switch (with still launch price and launch model) is selling less than 3DS in same time period doesnt mean that Switch is not doing very good in any case, because it does. Japan market look at Switch primarly like handheld device, and you can bet that for plenty people in Japan $300 is too much for handheld device, I can bet that Switch sales will realy explode in Japan only when Switch have price point of around $200.

Simple Switch would sell with new releases. Did you maybe saw just already confirmed Switch games for 2019. in Japan: NSMBU, Luigis Mansion 3, Yokai Watch 4, Dragon Quest 11, Animal Crossing, Pokemon Gen 8...are just some of already confirmed Switch games for 2019.

In 2019. Switch will entered in its 3. year on market, both price cut and revision are expected, but whats impressive is that Switch maintain to have strong sales without need for price cut (and that wasnt case with 3DS).

Haven't you read it, I have already mentioned that.... 

Although, I disagree a bit with your wording. 

Some Japanese people view it as an ( expensive) handheld-only console ( something  that is vexing me  a lot ) , not the market as a whole, otherwise NS sales wouldn't be that high. 

Last edited by tak13 - on 27 December 2018

I get that you're sad about your favorite system being dead tak13, but there's no reason to take it out on its wildly successful successor.



curl-6 said:
I get that you're sad about your favorite system being dead tak13, but there's no reason to take it out on its wildly successful successor.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8919651

Read that...

We're in a media create thread! 

Last edited by tak13 - on 27 December 2018

tak13 said:
curl-6 said:
I get that you're sad about your favorite system being dead tak13, but there's no reason to take it out on its wildly successful successor.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8919651

Read that and shut up! 

Already read it. You've always been a fanatical advocate for the 3DS and I think you just don't like that it's dying and that the Switch is likely to go on to be much more successful than it.