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Forums - Sales Discussion - WW December 2018 predictions

PS4: 3.44M
Xbox: 1.58M
Switch: 6.31M

Bonus: 3DS: 666K



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SKMBlake said:
DonFerrari said:

Last week of November being CM, that is quite within reason. But 6M in 6 weeks is quite aggresive.

That why I hope Nintendo will Smash the sales, like an ultimate smashing :D

 

And Switch sold 4,85 millions in december last year without a big release, why 6 millions with the biggest game of the year is too high ?

Last December had the CM, so if we take that out for this year we would go from 4M to 6M in the same timeframe, 50% increase is quite big. Not impossible of course. But there is also the point of inventory being available.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
SKMBlake said:

That why I hope Nintendo will Smash the sales, like an ultimate smashing :D

 

And Switch sold 4,85 millions in december last year without a big release, why 6 millions with the biggest game of the year is too high ?

Last December had the CM, so if we take that out for this year we would go from 4M to 6M in the same timeframe, 50% increase is quite big. Not impossible of course. But there is also the point of inventory being available.

I think VGC number includes CM in December. (Star mentioned that earlier)

Last edited by Acevil - on 17 December 2018

 

Acevil said:
DonFerrari said:

Last December had the CM, so if we take that out for this year we would go from 4M to 6M in the same timeframe, 50% increase is quite big. Not impossible of course. But there is also the point of inventory being available.

I think VGC number includes CM in December. (Star mentioned that earlier)

Does it even matter in this comparison? Or are VGC actually basing world wide months on NPD tracking period and not actual months?



Mbolibombo said:
Acevil said:

I think VGC number includes CM in December. (Star mentioned that earlier)

Does it even matter in this comparison? Or are VGC actually basing world wide months on NPD tracking period and not actual months?

A lot of people are treating Cyber Monday as the deciding reason why Nintendo will be down/flat compared to last year's December (which I still find strange, since Smash really should give it a boost, regardless of Cyber Monday).

Also VGC I think does not do actual months either. I think no one does. The closest to months we have is quarterly reports. 



 

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DonFerrari said:
SKMBlake said:

That why I hope Nintendo will Smash the sales, like an ultimate smashing :D

 

And Switch sold 4,85 millions in december last year without a big release, why 6 millions with the biggest game of the year is too high ?

Last December had the CM, so if we take that out for this year we would go from 4M to 6M in the same timeframe, 50% increase is quite big. Not impossible of course. But there is also the point of inventory being available.

Last december had the CM but this december has Smash. It already sold almost 300k in Japan where Smash isn't as big as it is in the US, I can't imagine how big the first Smash week did in the US hardware wise (I suppose more than 1 million there, and also at least 1 million in Europe and Rest of the World). And since it's really a local multiplayer game, I can see people buying one Switch per person instead of one per family.

 

That's why I think it will sell 5+ millions by the end of december, and around 30 millions LTD.



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

PSN ID: skmblake | Feel free to add me

Acevil said:
Mbolibombo said:

Does it even matter in this comparison? Or are VGC actually basing world wide months on NPD tracking period and not actual months?

A lot of people are treating Cyber Monday as the deciding reason why Nintendo will be down/flat compared to last year's December (which I still find strange, since Smash really should give it a boost, regardless of Cyber Monday).

Also VGC I think does not do actual months either. I think no one does. The closest to months we have is quarterly reports. 

One thing is being down. Another is to increase 50%. There is a lot of gap in between.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

SKMBlake said:
DonFerrari said:

Last December had the CM, so if we take that out for this year we would go from 4M to 6M in the same timeframe, 50% increase is quite big. Not impossible of course. But there is also the point of inventory being available.

Last december had the CM but this december has Smash. It already sold almost 300k in Japan where Smash isn't as big as it is in the US, I can't imagine how big the first Smash week did in the US hardware wise (I suppose more than 1 million there, and also at least 1 million in Europe and Rest of the World). And since it's really a local multiplayer game, I can see people buying one Switch per person instead of one per family.

 

That's why I think it will sell 5+ millions by the end of december, and around 30 millions LTD.

It's a gigantic leap going from instead of buying a second controller to go and buy couple new Switches.

But sure it can happen, unfortunatelly next NPD will take some time, also VGC closing december as well.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
Acevil said:

A lot of people are treating Cyber Monday as the deciding reason why Nintendo will be down/flat compared to last year's December (which I still find strange, since Smash really should give it a boost, regardless of Cyber Monday).

Also VGC I think does not do actual months either. I think no one does. The closest to months we have is quarterly reports. 

One thing is being down. Another is to increase 50%. There is a lot of gap in between.

By the way the increase would be 37%, since the number is 4.35 not 4 million. Unless you using another set of numbers. 



 

Acevil said:
DonFerrari said:

One thing is being down. Another is to increase 50%. There is a lot of gap in between.

By the way the increase would be 37%, since the number is 4.35 not 4 million. Unless you using another set of numbers. 

I'm considering CM as part of November.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."