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Forums - Sales Discussion - WW December 2018 predictions

Intrinsic on 16 December 2018
DonFerrari said:
Robert_Downey_Jr. said:

I hope they don’t make the same mistake as last gen and refuse to cut price.  PS3 could have reached well beyond its final sales if it had been $200 for the last year or two of its life

Well if the cut makes the total profit lower there is no point in doing it.

That depends.

I firmly believe the PS4 cost sony around $200 to make right now. +/- $30. 

If they lave the price at $299 sales will be sinificantly lower next year than it was this year. That seems ok if they can still sell like 14M consles at around $299 but at some point that starts becoming counterproductive. At some point the $60 or so that they make on the hardware frm the reduced number of consoles sold each month isnt worth it when You can sell at a lower price, selling more consoles and more software to the new buyers. 



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DonFerrari on 16 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
DonFerrari said:

Well if the cut makes the total profit lower there is no point in doing it.

That depends.

I firmly believe the PS4 cost sony around $200 to make right now. +/- $30. 

If they lave the price at $299 sales will be sinificantly lower next year than it was this year. That seems ok if they can still sell like 14M consles at around $299 but at some point that starts becoming counterproductive. At some point the $60 or so that they make on the hardware frm the reduced number of consoles sold each month isnt worth it when You can sell at a lower price, selling more consoles and more software to the new buyers. 

It is a complicated calculation even more when at the end of a gen there is less SW expected to be sold and the PS+ plan signature.

But the point was on PS3, the moment it was really going downwards was a point of hard justification for pricecut (PS+ wasn't needed at the time) and because of the cell the cost reduction was also hard to do.

On PS4 it may be easier to go 199 or even 99, they deciding on that will depend on the aditional PS+ subs and games sold covering the gap.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

AJNShelton on 16 December 2018

The Switch is already up YoY with 2,2 millions. It did 13,6 millions last year, I think it will end the year by selling at least 17 millions,



Intrinsic on 16 December 2018
SKMBlake said:
The Switch is already up YoY with 2,2 millions. It did 13,6 millions last year, I think it will end the year by selling at least 17 millions,

So basically you expect it to sell 6M+ in december alone.... ok cool. That sure would be impressive.



AJNShelton on 16 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
SKMBlake said:
The Switch is already up YoY with 2,2 millions. It did 13,6 millions last year, I think it will end the year by selling at least 17 millions,

So basically you expect it to sell 6M+ in december alone.... ok cool. That sure would be impressive.

You forgot the last week of november that VGChartz didn't put yet. I expect to be close to 1 million too. And 5 millions for december.



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DonFerrari on 16 December 2018
SKMBlake said:
Intrinsic said:

So basically you expect it to sell 6M+ in december alone.... ok cool. That sure would be impressive.

You forgot the last week of november that VGChartz didn't put yet. I expect to be close to 1 million too. And 5 millions for december.

Last week of November being CM, that is quite within reason. But 6M in 6 weeks is quite aggresive.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

AJNShelton on 16 December 2018
DonFerrari said:
SKMBlake said:

You forgot the last week of november that VGChartz didn't put yet. I expect to be close to 1 million too. And 5 millions for december.

Last week of November being CM, that is quite within reason. But 6M in 6 weeks is quite aggresive.

That why I hope Nintendo will Smash the sales, like an ultimate smashing :D

 

And Switch sold 4,85 millions in december last year without a big release, why 6 millions with the biggest game of the year is too high ?

Last edited by AJNShelton - on 16 December 2018

Keiji on 16 December 2018
SKMBlake said:
Intrinsic said:

So basically you expect it to sell 6M+ in december alone.... ok cool. That sure would be impressive.

You forgot the last week of november that VGChartz didn't put yet. I expect to be close to 1 million too. And 5 millions for december.

 

PM sent ~ CGI

Last edited by CGI-Quality - on 17 December 2018

chakkra on 17 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
PS4-3M
XBO-1.3M
NSW- 5.3M

Thats what I am expecting. Especially considerring cyber monday isn't part of december this year.

I think you guys are in for a surprise with those X1 numbers.

anyways, Im expecting something like this:

PS4-3.2M
XBO-2.1M
NSW- 6M



zorg1000 on 17 December 2018
chakkra said:
Intrinsic said:
PS4-3M
XBO-1.3M
NSW- 5.3M

Thats what I am expecting. Especially considerring cyber monday isn't part of december this year.

I think you guys are in for a surprise with those X1 numbers.

anyways, Im expecting something like this:

PS4-3.2M
XBO-2.1M
NSW- 6M

XBO us having alot of solid deals this December, currently $100 off on all S & X models, so it should have a decent month.

Also, November numbers look a bit under tracked for it.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.