Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

Intrinsic said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:
Is it a mild coincidence that all the posters who are downplaying Switch's future in this thread just so happen to be Sony fans? Things that make you go hmmmmm

smh......

So talking abut possible future sale figures and debating reasoning behind the numbers on a sales site is now downplaying the future of a platform? And sorry who else will say anything other than the switch will sell 100M+? Nintendo fans? 

When you have certain posters saying Switch will have a lower  LTD than 3DS despite analytics (tracking well ahead, selling on par with PS4 launched-aligned, benign discounts etc;) proving otherwise, it becomes a little suspect. 



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PortisheadBiscuit said:
Intrinsic said:

smh......

So talking abut possible future sale figures and debating reasoning behind the numbers on a sales site is now downplaying the future of a platform? And sorry who else will say anything other than the switch will sell 100M+? Nintendo fans? 

When you have certain posters saying Switch will have a lower  LTD than 3DS despite analytics (tracking well ahead, selling on par with PS4 launched-aligned, benign discounts etc;) proving otherwise, it becomes a little suspect. 

Based on your logic, people would be trolling when they said the Wii had no chance of beating the PS2 despite tracking well ahead of it.



Farsala said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

When you have certain posters saying Switch will have a lower  LTD than 3DS despite analytics (tracking well ahead, selling on par with PS4 launched-aligned, benign discounts etc;) proving otherwise, it becomes a little suspect. 

Based on your logic, people would be trolling when they said the Wii had no chance of beating the PS2 despite tracking well ahead of it.

And they probably were trolling AT THAT TIME, because Wii was such an abberation, no one could've accurately predicted the trajectory when it was flying off the shelves and out of stock for 3 years. Any notion that Wii would have an abrupt slow down in demand wasn't based on analytics, because there were none. Everyone was caught off guard by Wii in both it's peak and valley including Nintendo. Bad analogy for this particular discussion. 



duduspace1 said:
colafitte said:

I still don't understand this notion about some posters here saying that Switch is tracking way better than 3DS at the moment....

3DS at the end of 2011 -> 13'2M
NS at the end of 2017 -> 13'1M

3DS at the end of 2012 -> 14'1M -> 27'3M LT
NS at the end of 2018 -> around 16M -> around 29M LT (30M if you want to be optimistic)

Why people keep saying Switch is doing much better when the data says otherwise??. Is doing better, yes, but not that better. And we're talking sales, not talking about price or price cuts, because then, PS4 and XBO were way more expensive than Switch.

For example, 3DS did 5'5M during 2012 in Japan. The real difference with Switch is that Switch is doing better in the west than 3DS but Switch is doing worse in Japan.

I think this mentality has spread because Switch is doing way better in USA than 3DS and the american-centric focus in the press and in the media gives Switch way more representation. But the numbers are there.

And by the way, 3DS, sold 13'2M in 2011, 14'1M in 2012 and 14'3M in 2013. And after that, it never reached 10M in a year again....(and this despite Pokemon X/Y launching at the end of 2013 and Pokemon Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire and Smash Bros 3DS launching a year later).

Neglecting the early price cut the 3DS had in comparing its sales to the other consoles is not a fair way to assess sales particularly with respect to the Switch. None of the other 2 consoles you mention have Hand Held attributes like the Switch and the 3DS. Cost is an important factor for handheld sales. It is extremely likely (almost guaranteed) that the full sales potential of the Switch as a handheld is yet to be seen at its present sales price.

I promised i will not talk anymore about WW sales for Switch but i want to clear out that i was discussing just TOTAL NUMBER SALES OF 3DS AGAINST NINTENDO SWITCH NOT BEING SO DIFFERENT. That's it. I added too that i prefered talking about asbolute succeses like total sales, because if we start talking about relative success like price points or discounts, then people have subjective opinions on the matter. You can say 3DS had a price cut and that's why it sold so much, so that's why you find Switch surprising and i can say that maybe, even if Nintendo cut the price of the Switch like the 3DS, the console would still selling about the same because Nintendo would not produce more, or as much more to compensate (this is not a thing that actually think, i was just proving a point) or that Switch did so good avoiding cut prices because its 1st party software was so good (and that won't last). You and I can't prove any of those things to be correct or not, but the number of sales are facts, that can't be discussed, and nobody here can deny the fact that at the end of the last quarter, official numbers for Switch and 3DS showed similar number of sales.

So my original post is still true: "I still don't know why people keep saying Switch is tracking way better than 3DS at the moment". What is true though, is that this is a NPD thread and Switch is indeed tracking better than 3ds in the same period of time in USA, but my post was directed to the discussion there was before about Switch lifetime sales worldwide and the comparison with previous Nintendo hardware, specifically 3DS.

Last edited by colafitte - on 16 December 2018

PortisheadBiscuit said:
Farsala said:

Based on your logic, people would be trolling when they said the Wii had no chance of beating the PS2 despite tracking well ahead of it.

And they probably were trolling AT THAT TIME, because Wii was such an abberation, no one could've accurately predicted the trajectory when it was flying off the shelves and out of stock for 3 years. Any notion that Wii would have an abrupt slow down in demand wasn't based on analytics, because there were none. Everyone was caught off guard by Wii in both it's peak and valley including Nintendo. Bad analogy for this particular discussion. 

I would disagree. Almost all consoles drop off, especially Nintendo consoles. PS2 was the abberation by not dropping off, with a very poor PS3 to back it up late in life.



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PortisheadBiscuit said:
Farsala said:

Based on your logic, people would be trolling when they said the Wii had no chance of beating the PS2 despite tracking well ahead of it.

And they probably were trolling AT THAT TIME, because Wii was such an abberation, no one could've accurately predicted the trajectory when it was flying off the shelves and out of stock for 3 years. Any notion that Wii would have an abrupt slow down in demand wasn't based on analytics, because there were none. Everyone was caught off guard by Wii in both it's peak and valley including Nintendo. Bad analogy for this particular discussion. 

Unless they looked at the situation differently and considered factors that others didn't consider.

I have said that i do not see the NS doing more than 80M. Which isn't even a bad number anyways. And I have pointed out why I feel it wouldn't. If this somehow makes me a troll or having some sort of weird hidden agenda then thats ok I guess. 



Intrinsic said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

And they probably were trolling AT THAT TIME, because Wii was such an abberation, no one could've accurately predicted the trajectory when it was flying off the shelves and out of stock for 3 years. Any notion that Wii would have an abrupt slow down in demand wasn't based on analytics, because there were none. Everyone was caught off guard by Wii in both it's peak and valley including Nintendo. Bad analogy for this particular discussion. 

Unless they looked at the situation differently and considered factors that others didn't consider.

I have said that i do not see the NS doing more than 80M. Which isn't even a bad number anyways. And I have pointed out why I feel it wouldn't. If this somehow makes me a troll or having some sort of weird hidden agenda then thats ok I guess. 

Well I wasn't pointing the finger at any one person particularly, 80m seems like a fair number honestly. But when I read things like 65m and/or selling below the 3DS, it becomes a little suspect IMO where the analytics are coming from. 



PortisheadBiscuit said:
Is it a mild coincidence that all the posters who are downplaying Switch's future in this thread just so happen to be Sony fans? Things that make you go hmmmmm

I guess it's just a coincidence how it is Nintendo fans who are the most optimistic for Switch's numbers.  Some a little overzealous, IMO (2.5M+ in Dec and 25M+ next FY.)  Strange how that works out.

How about actually adding something constructive to the thread instead of turning it to crap by making some ridiculous point about one fanbase.  Hmm?



PortisheadBiscuit said:
Intrinsic said:

Unless they looked at the situation differently and considered factors that others didn't consider.

I have said that i do not see the NS doing more than 80M. Which isn't even a bad number anyways. And I have pointed out why I feel it wouldn't. If this somehow makes me a troll or having some sort of weird hidden agenda then thats ok I guess. 

Well I wasn't pointing the finger at any one person particularly, 80m seems like a fair number honestly. But when I read things like 65m and/or selling below the 3DS, it becomes a little suspect IMO where the analytics are coming from. 

I may strongly speak against nintendo, but I am still reasonable and objective nor am I delusional.

Before the NS was released, I used to say that I saw it doing 50M. My argument then was that it will sell more than a typical nintendo home console but less than a typical handheld. I also said it before the NS was released that nintendo were going to kill off their handheld division and focus on the NS the second we found out it was a hybrid. 

After its first year I adjusted my estimates up for the NS from 50M - 65M. Now I am accepting that could also have been low balling it and moved it up t 75M which is about what the 3DS sold. Its fun making predictions based on whatever theories or analysis you are using to support your claims. We all do it. If I am wrong I am wrong. And I will admit to being wrong.  



Intrinsic said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

And they probably were trolling AT THAT TIME, because Wii was such an abberation, no one could've accurately predicted the trajectory when it was flying off the shelves and out of stock for 3 years. Any notion that Wii would have an abrupt slow down in demand wasn't based on analytics, because there were none. Everyone was caught off guard by Wii in both it's peak and valley including Nintendo. Bad analogy for this particular discussion. 

Unless they looked at the situation differently and considered factors that others didn't consider.

I have said that i do not see the NS doing more than 80M. Which isn't even a bad number anyways. And I have pointed out why I feel it wouldn't. If this somehow makes me a troll or having some sort of weird hidden agenda then thats ok I guess. 

80m is a fair and  reasonable estimate even if some believe it can do more. That is above 3DS and about PS3 territory. Very possible for the Switch particularly if it abruptly drops off like the Wii at its tail.

It is currently tracking above that though and Nintendo statements on its future point more towards a long tail. The SD to HD transition is one of the major reasons for the Wii's short tail. HD to 4K might have a similar effect for the Switch.