Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

colafitte said:

I still don't understand this notion about some posters here saying that Switch is tracking way better than 3DS at the moment....

3DS at the end of 2011 -> 13'2M
NS at the end of 2017 -> 13'1M

3DS at the end of 2012 -> 14'1M -> 27'3M LT
NS at the end of 2018 -> around 16M -> around 29M LT (30M if you want to be optimistic)

Why people keep saying Switch is doing much better when the data says otherwise??. Is doing better, yes, but not that better. And we're talking sales, not talking about price or price cuts, because then, PS4 and XBO were way more expensive than Switch.

For example, 3DS did 5'5M during 2012 in Japan. The real difference with Switch is that Switch is doing better in the west than 3DS but Switch is doing worse in Japan.

I think this mentality has spread because Switch is doing way better in USA than 3DS and the american-centric focus in the press and in the media gives Switch way more representation. But the numbers are there.

And by the way, 3DS, sold 13'2M in 2011, 14'1M in 2012 and 14'3M in 2013. And after that, it never reached 10M in a year again....(and this despite Pokemon X/Y launching at the end of 2013 and Pokemon Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire and Smash Bros 3DS launching a year later).

Neglecting the early price cut the 3DS had in comparing its sales to the other consoles is not a fair way to assess sales particularly with respect to the Switch. None of the other 2 consoles you mention have Hand Held attributes like the Switch and the 3DS. Cost is an important factor for handheld sales. It is extremely likely (almost guaranteed) that the full sales potential of the Switch as a handheld is yet to be seen at its present sales price.



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peachbuggy said:
DonFerrari said:

Yes. We have some PS4 will do less than 700k as lowest I saw (from the regular 1-1.2M expectations), Switch will do over 1.4M perhaps 2.0M and you with the highest one on 2.5M. That is trully a tall order to achieve.

It is a tall order but never underestimate the power of Smash! Plus, i'm not sure if it was on this thread but i've seen a few 2.5m-3m December NPD Switch predictions. As for Ps4, i'm not sure how it historically performs in December but i agree 700k seems low. Based on my limited knowledge i'd probably guess at 1.0-1.2m

I haven't seem 3M yet.

And sure Smash will have a good showing, still 2.5M is really a lot. We will soon know anyway, best of luck to Switch breaking another record.

PS4 usually do similar Nov and Dec (due to BF deals) and since this year CM was on Nov, so it will do less on Dec vs Nov, I would say 1M is the number we will see.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Intrinsic said:
LipeJJ said:

It will be way worse next month if Switch happens to wipe the floor with the other consoles...

Nope. I think everyone and their dog expects the switch to clean house this month. The real debate now is if it does 1.4M, 2M or 2.5M. Most (including myself) even expects the PS4 to do less than 1M. 

peachbuggy said:
Wow! Just waded through this entire thread. So many differing opinions! My take is that come December NPD, it will be enough to change some peoples' even long term Switch sales perceptions and estimates. I wouldn't be surprised at a 2.5m+ December NPD and Smash to break a longstanding individual game sales record. Then, the 20m FY shipped amount will look more attainable. Long term growth will look more attainable and a higher FY shipments forecast for Switch FY 2019 by Nintendo will be more likely. Also, for those saying Nintendo fans buy Nintendo consoles for their 1st party games, therefore all are onboard already, this isn't necessarily the case. Within Nintendo's IP's lay very different individual IP fanbases and these in no way necessarily completely overlap. There are probably more than a few waiting for the next Metroid release for example.

Thats an extreme way to look at it.

They arent all on board already. Point thuuogh is that nintendo has the largest "shared userbse" of the 3 platforms. Better way t look at it is that by the time the NS gets to 40M sold, subsequent releases from the usual staple of nintendo IPs will have less of an impact driving sales forward. This happens to all platforms mind you, its just in to be more serious with the switch.

Unless there are third parties or even nintendo bringing new IPs that are equally big and successful to the platform. Take the PS4 for instance. In addition to its usual staple of continuing franchises there were at least 2+ new AAA IPs released either by sony or a third party every single year. The XB1 didnt have that and as such its sales stagnated.

Just goes to show that games sells hardware.... but how and what those games are are equally important.  

Believe me, Nintendo's IP's have very dedicated, different (and vocal) individual fanbases. You may think it won't make much of a difference but i beg to differ. Plus, there are "new" players joining a consoles' infrastructure all the time, at times making these fanbases bigger. It's also already been addressed here before but so far Nintendo have only really gone after the HC crowd with their strategy/price point. Next year i believe, with Animal Crossing and Pokemon (HH orientated titles), they will begin to go after the HH crowd. So, probably expect a price cut to get nearer mass market HH price point. Then from that time onwards their dream of having multiple owners per household will become more of a possibility, whilst all the while the userbase will be growing to 50m+. So, all in all i don't see Switch market penetration becoming a problem at all at 40m+ userbase.



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

DonFerrari said:
peachbuggy said:

It is a tall order but never underestimate the power of Smash! Plus, i'm not sure if it was on this thread but i've seen a few 2.5m-3m December NPD Switch predictions. As for Ps4, i'm not sure how it historically performs in December but i agree 700k seems low. Based on my limited knowledge i'd probably guess at 1.0-1.2m

I haven't seem 3M yet.

And sure Smash will have a good showing, still 2.5M is really a lot. We will soon know anyway, best of luck to Switch breaking another record.

PS4 usually do similar Nov and Dec (due to BF deals) and since this year CM was on Nov, so it will do less on Dec vs Nov, I would say 1M is the number we will see.

Yes, i will look forward to it. (In a nice way!) Not sure it will break any records though, i'm pretty sure the Wii had more than 1 2.5m+ NPD. Smash will likely break records though, particularly the best ever opening month. (Not something to be sniffed at!)



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

peachbuggy said:
Intrinsic said:

Nope. I think everyone and their dog expects the switch to clean house this month. The real debate now is if it does 1.4M, 2M or 2.5M. Most (including myself) even expects the PS4 to do less than 1M. 

Thats an extreme way to look at it.

They arent all on board already. Point thuuogh is that nintendo has the largest "shared userbse" of the 3 platforms. Better way t look at it is that by the time the NS gets to 40M sold, subsequent releases from the usual staple of nintendo IPs will have less of an impact driving sales forward. This happens to all platforms mind you, its just in to be more serious with the switch.

Unless there are third parties or even nintendo bringing new IPs that are equally big and successful to the platform. Take the PS4 for instance. In addition to its usual staple of continuing franchises there were at least 2+ new AAA IPs released either by sony or a third party every single year. The XB1 didnt have that and as such its sales stagnated.

Just goes to show that games sells hardware.... but how and what those games are are equally important.  

Believe me, Nintendo's IP's have very dedicated, different (and vocal) individual fanbases. You may think it won't make much of a difference but i beg to differ. Plus, there are "new" players joining a consoles' infrastructure all the time, at times making these fanbases bigger. It's also already been addressed here before but so far Nintendo have only really gone after the HC crowd with their strategy/price point. Next year i believe, with Animal Crossing and Pokemon (HH orientated titles), they will begin to go after the HH crowd. So, probably expect a price cut to get nearer mass market HH price point. Then from that time onwards their dream of having multiple owners per household will become more of a possibility, whilst all the while the userbase will be growing to 50m+. So, all in all i don't see Switch market penetration becoming a problem at all at 40m+ userbase.

Sorry, but there have to be a lot of overlap on the fanbase, if that wasn't true it would be impossible to have so many games selling 5-10M on WiiU 15M userbase.

peachbuggy said:
DonFerrari said:

I haven't seem 3M yet.

And sure Smash will have a good showing, still 2.5M is really a lot. We will soon know anyway, best of luck to Switch breaking another record.

PS4 usually do similar Nov and Dec (due to BF deals) and since this year CM was on Nov, so it will do less on Dec vs Nov, I would say 1M is the number we will see.

Yes, i will look forward to it. (In a nice way!) Not sure it will break any records though, i'm pretty sure the Wii had more than 1 2.5m+ NPD. Smash will likely break records though, particularly the best ever opening month. (Not something to be sniffed at!)

Wii was a beast, but 2.5M in December would certainly be a gen record as far as I remember.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

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peachbuggy said:

Believe me, Nintendo's IP's have very dedicated, different (and vocal) individual fanbases. You may think it won't make much of a difference but i beg to differ. Plus, there are "new" players joining a consoles' infrastructure all the time, at times making these fanbases bigger. It's also already been addressed here before but so far Nintendo have only really gone after the HC crowd with their strategy/price point. Next year i believe, with Animal Crossing and Pokemon (HH orientated titles), they will begin to go after the HH crowd. So, probably expect a price cut to get nearer mass market HH price point. Then from that time onwards their dream of having multiple owners per household will become more of a possibility, whilst all the while the userbase will be growing to 50m+. So, all in all i don't see Switch market penetration becoming a problem at all at 40m+ userbase.

Let me try and prove my point.

According to nintendo like 22.8M NS has been sold.

Their top selling games are.....

 

  1.  SMO - 12.1M
  2. MK8 - 11.7M
  3. LZBoTW - 10.2M
  4. Splatoon2 - 7.4M
  5. 1-2S, MTA, Arms, Kirby - all did around 2M
You still don't think there isn't a lot of overlapping? Especially when you consider that all those games made almost 75% of their sales before the NS was even 1yr old. I don't even think Any PS4 game (outside COD) managed 10M sold before the console was 2 years old.
And then look at the WiiU. Mk8 sold 8M t a 15M install base??? And all its other top sellers sold around 5M with the exception of Zelda;BOTW which probably didnt even do up to 1M. Wonder why?
Last edited by Intrinsic - on 16 December 2018

Is it a mild coincidence that all the posters who are downplaying Switch's future in this thread just so happen to be Sony fans? Things that make you go hmmmmm



Intrinsic said:
peachbuggy said:

Believe me, Nintendo's IP's have very dedicated, different (and vocal) individual fanbases. You may think it won't make much of a difference but i beg to differ. Plus, there are "new" players joining a consoles' infrastructure all the time, at times making these fanbases bigger. It's also already been addressed here before but so far Nintendo have only really gone after the HC crowd with their strategy/price point. Next year i believe, with Animal Crossing and Pokemon (HH orientated titles), they will begin to go after the HH crowd. So, probably expect a price cut to get nearer mass market HH price point. Then from that time onwards their dream of having multiple owners per household will become more of a possibility, whilst all the while the userbase will be growing to 50m+. So, all in all i don't see Switch market penetration becoming a problem at all at 40m+ userbase.

Let me try and prove my point.

According to nintendo like 22.8M NS has been sold.

Their top selling games are.....

 

  1.  SMO - 12.1M
  2. MK8 - 11.7M
  3. LZBoTW - 10.2M
  4. Splatoon2 - 7.4M
  5. 1-2S, MTA, Arms, Kirby - all did around 2M
You still don't think there is a lot of overlapping? Especially when you consider that all those game there made almost 75% f their sales before the NS was even 1yr old. I don't even think Any PS4 game (outside COD) managed 10M sold before the console was even 2 years old.

 

Sure are there some dedicated fanbase among the regular fanbase, those guys that play thousand hour pokemon or the like. But it's almost unconceivable to think Someone will buy Switch or another Nintendo HW and not buy one Zelda, One Mario, One Smash, One Mario Kart and One Pokemon (as available) for that console.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

PortisheadBiscuit said:
Is it a mild coincidence that all the posters who are downplaying Switch's future in this thread just so happen to be Sony fans? Things that make you go hmmmmm

smh......

So talking abut possible future sale figures and debating reasoning behind the numbers on a sales site is now downplaying the future of a platform? And sorry who else will say anything other than the switch will sell 100M+? Nintendo fans? 



[NA] 30 Million
[EU] 25 Million
[JP] 20 Million
[RoTW] 5 million
This would equal 80 Million, and the RoTW numbers are being super lowballed, just incase I overestimated Europe. Does these numbers seem semi realistic? I find it hard to believe that the Switch couldn't reach this 

Last edited by MasonADC - on 16 December 2018