Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

colafitte said:
duduspace1 said:

Neglecting the early price cut the 3DS had in comparing its sales to the other consoles is not a fair way to assess sales particularly with respect to the Switch. None of the other 2 consoles you mention have Hand Held attributes like the Switch and the 3DS. Cost is an important factor for handheld sales. It is extremely likely (almost guaranteed) that the full sales potential of the Switch as a handheld is yet to be seen at its present sales price.

I promised i will not talk anymore about WW sales for Switch but i want to clear out that i was discussing just TOTAL NUMBER SALES OF 3DS AGAINST NINTENDO SWITCH NOT BEING SO DIFFERENT. That's it. I added too that i prefered talking about asbolute succeses like total sales, because if we start talking about relative success like price points or discounts, then people have subjective opinions on the matter. You can say 3DS had a price cut and that's why it sold so much, so that's why you find Switch surprising and i can say that maybe, even if Nintendo cut the price of the Switch like the 3DS, the console would still selling about the same because Nintendo would not produce more, or as much more to compensate (this is not a thing that actually think, i was just proving a point) or that Switch did so good avoiding cut prices because its 1st party software was so good (and that won't last). You and I can't prove any of those things to be correct or not, but the number of sales are facts, that can't be discussed, and nobody here can deny the fact that at the end of the last quarter, official numbers for Switch and 3DS showed similar number of sales.

So my original post is still true: "I still don't know why people keep saying Switch is tracking way better than 3DS at the moment". What is true though, is that this is a NPD thread and Switch is indeed tracking better than 3ds in the same period of time in USA, but my post was directed to the discussion there was before about Switch lifetime sales worldwide and the comparison with previous Nintendo hardware, specifically 3DS.

The 3DS price cut and its effect on the sales curve of  the 3DS are however neither sentiment nor subjective, you need only look at the sales curve.

One could argue that discounting its effect is actually being sentimental and subjective.



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PortisheadBiscuit said:
Intrinsic said:

smh......

So talking abut possible future sale figures and debating reasoning behind the numbers on a sales site is now downplaying the future of a platform? And sorry who else will say anything other than the switch will sell 100M+? Nintendo fans? 

When you have certain posters saying Switch will have a lower  LTD than 3DS despite analytics (tracking well ahead, selling on par with PS4 launched-aligned, benign discounts etc;) proving otherwise, it becomes a little suspect. 

This is like the third thread I see you rilling up and doing personal attacks or generalizations. Will you spin it around again?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

DonFerrari said:
peachbuggy said:

Believe me, Nintendo's IP's have very dedicated, different (and vocal) individual fanbases. You may think it won't make much of a difference but i beg to differ. Plus, there are "new" players joining a consoles' infrastructure all the time, at times making these fanbases bigger. It's also already been addressed here before but so far Nintendo have only really gone after the HC crowd with their strategy/price point. Next year i believe, with Animal Crossing and Pokemon (HH orientated titles), they will begin to go after the HH crowd. So, probably expect a price cut to get nearer mass market HH price point. Then from that time onwards their dream of having multiple owners per household will become more of a possibility, whilst all the while the userbase will be growing to 50m+. So, all in all i don't see Switch market penetration becoming a problem at all at 40m+ userbase.

Sorry, but there have to be a lot of overlap on the fanbase, if that wasn't true it would be impossible to have so many games selling 5-10M on WiiU 15M userbase.

peachbuggy said:

Yes, i will look forward to it. (In a nice way!) Not sure it will break any records though, i'm pretty sure the Wii had more than 1 2.5m+ NPD. Smash will likely break records though, particularly the best ever opening month. (Not something to be sniffed at!)

Wii was a beast, but 2.5M in December would certainly be a gen record as far as I remember.

Yeah i guess it would be a record for this gen.

Regarding your comment about the Wii u userbase i guess my only explanation would be that Nintendo fans of many IP's sat out the console, as did some IP's.



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

duduspace1 said:
colafitte said:

I promised i will not talk anymore about WW sales for Switch but i want to clear out that i was discussing just TOTAL NUMBER SALES OF 3DS AGAINST NINTENDO SWITCH NOT BEING SO DIFFERENT. That's it. I added too that i prefered talking about asbolute succeses like total sales, because if we start talking about relative success like price points or discounts, then people have subjective opinions on the matter. You can say 3DS had a price cut and that's why it sold so much, so that's why you find Switch surprising and i can say that maybe, even if Nintendo cut the price of the Switch like the 3DS, the console would still selling about the same because Nintendo would not produce more, or as much more to compensate (this is not a thing that actually think, i was just proving a point) or that Switch did so good avoiding cut prices because its 1st party software was so good (and that won't last). You and I can't prove any of those things to be correct or not, but the number of sales are facts, that can't be discussed, and nobody here can deny the fact that at the end of the last quarter, official numbers for Switch and 3DS showed similar number of sales.

So my original post is still true: "I still don't know why people keep saying Switch is tracking way better than 3DS at the moment". What is true though, is that this is a NPD thread and Switch is indeed tracking better than 3ds in the same period of time in USA, but my post was directed to the discussion there was before about Switch lifetime sales worldwide and the comparison with previous Nintendo hardware, specifically 3DS.

The 3DS price cut and its effect on the sales curve of  the 3DS are however neither sentiment nor subjective, you need only look at the sales curve.

One could argue that discounting its effect is actually being sentimental and subjective.

I guess i won't be able to fullfil my propise about not talking about this in this thread..., so sorry again mods, . Last one, i promise.

People saying Switch selling 20M with that price is more impressive than 3DS selling 20M with half the price can be right (although it could exist a lot of other reasons too). People saying Switch is tracking better (worldwide) than 3DS is technically true, but not by the amount some people are trying to convince others, because until last quarter annoucements both were pretty similar in sales (22'2M 3DS vs 23M Switch) launch aligned. That was my point.

And yes, the curve right now is favorable to Switch, but that doesn't change a bit what i was saying. I can't accept the explanation as to why Switch will do better than 3DS based on "3DS tracking way better than Switch, so that's why Switch will sell more than 80M or 85M" because until new official data is provided that is not the case yet. 



⚠️

Just a little Warning to dial back on some of the aggression I'm starting to see. No need to make things personal or attack anyone one/fanbase. Naturally, these topics get a little more heated, so there is some room for error (within reason), but please try to keep it as civil as you can.



                                                                                                             

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Intrinsic said:
peachbuggy said:

Believe me, Nintendo's IP's have very dedicated, different (and vocal) individual fanbases. You may think it won't make much of a difference but i beg to differ. Plus, there are "new" players joining a consoles' infrastructure all the time, at times making these fanbases bigger. It's also already been addressed here before but so far Nintendo have only really gone after the HC crowd with their strategy/price point. Next year i believe, with Animal Crossing and Pokemon (HH orientated titles), they will begin to go after the HH crowd. So, probably expect a price cut to get nearer mass market HH price point. Then from that time onwards their dream of having multiple owners per household will become more of a possibility, whilst all the while the userbase will be growing to 50m+. So, all in all i don't see Switch market penetration becoming a problem at all at 40m+ userbase.

Let me try and prove my point.

According to nintendo like 22.8M NS has been sold.

Their top selling games are.....

 

  1.  SMO - 12.1M
  2. MK8 - 11.7M
  3. LZBoTW - 10.2M
  4. Splatoon2 - 7.4M
  5. 1-2S, MTA, Arms, Kirby - all did around 2M
You still don't think there isn't a lot of overlapping? Especially when you consider that all those games made almost 75% of their sales before the NS was even 1yr old. I don't even think Any PS4 game (outside COD) managed 10M sold before the console was 2 years old.
And then look at the WiiU. Mk8 sold 8M t a 15M install base??? And all its other top sellers sold around 5M with the exception of Zelda;BOTW which probably didnt even do up to 1M. Wonder why?

Of course there is some overlap between their major franchises just not as much as you think. As the Switch ages, those attach rates will go down. You really think you can use Ninyendo's biggest asset against the Switch being a huge seller? It really doesn't work that way. If the Switch is trending between the 3ds and Wii then likely it will end up somewhere around there. However, an argument can be made to it outlegging the Wii. It's actually trending along the lines of the Ps4 but i would be incredibly naive to expect it to have Ps4-like legs!



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

peachbuggy said:
Intrinsic said:

Let me try and prove my point.

According to nintendo like 22.8M NS has been sold.

Their top selling games are.....

 

  1.  SMO - 12.1M
  2. MK8 - 11.7M
  3. LZBoTW - 10.2M
  4. Splatoon2 - 7.4M
  5. 1-2S, MTA, Arms, Kirby - all did around 2M
You still don't think there isn't a lot of overlapping? Especially when you consider that all those games made almost 75% of their sales before the NS was even 1yr old. I don't even think Any PS4 game (outside COD) managed 10M sold before the console was 2 years old.
And then look at the WiiU. Mk8 sold 8M t a 15M install base??? And all its other top sellers sold around 5M with the exception of Zelda;BOTW which probably didnt even do up to 1M. Wonder why?

Of course there is some overlap between their major franchises just not as much as you think. As the Switch ages, those attach rates will go down. You really think you can use Ninyendo's biggest asset against the Switch being a huge seller? It really doesn't work that way. If the Switch is trending between the 3ds and Wii then likely it will end up somewhere around there. However, an argument can be made to it outlegging the Wii. It's actually trending along the lines of the Ps4 but i would be incredibly naive to expect it to have Ps4-like legs!

The point is that carring Switch to let's say 40-50M on Nintendo 1st party alone is one thing, to pass 80M without significant 3rd party support is another. And that is where the overlapping came in question.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

DonFerrari said:
peachbuggy said:

Of course there is some overlap between their major franchises just not as much as you think. As the Switch ages, those attach rates will go down. You really think you can use Ninyendo's biggest asset against the Switch being a huge seller? It really doesn't work that way. If the Switch is trending between the 3ds and Wii then likely it will end up somewhere around there. However, an argument can be made to it outlegging the Wii. It's actually trending along the lines of the Ps4 but i would be incredibly naive to expect it to have Ps4-like legs!

The point is that carring Switch to let's say 40-50M on Nintendo 1st party alone is one thing, to pass 80M without significant 3rd party support is another. And that is where the overlapping came in question.

Well, i guess none of us can predict the future and there are quite a few different permutations. I think you have a point but we will be a little wiser post-NPD. Being that the Switch is a hybrid it's probably hard to compare to any of Nintendo's past consoles. However, i'm looking at its momentum right now and imo it would take a spectacular collapse in sales for it not to reach at least 90m+.



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

peachbuggy said:
DonFerrari said:

The point is that carring Switch to let's say 40-50M on Nintendo 1st party alone is one thing, to pass 80M without significant 3rd party support is another. And that is where the overlapping came in question.

Well, i guess none of us can predict the future and there are quite a few different permutations. I think you have a point but we will be a little wiser post-NPD. Being that the Switch is a hybrid it's probably hard to compare to any of Nintendo's past consoles. However, i'm looking at its momentum right now and imo it would take a spectacular collapse in sales for it not to reach at least 90m+.

90M is certainly possible, and we certainly can't be sure of the future. Also it will be very hard for Nintendo alone even with united platform to supply SW for it alone. But we are in for a threat on the next 4-6 years to see it.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

DonFerrari said:
peachbuggy said:

Well, i guess none of us can predict the future and there are quite a few different permutations. I think you have a point but we will be a little wiser post-NPD. Being that the Switch is a hybrid it's probably hard to compare to any of Nintendo's past consoles. However, i'm looking at its momentum right now and imo it would take a spectacular collapse in sales for it not to reach at least 90m+.

90M is certainly possible, and we certainly can't be sure of the future. Also it will be very hard for Nintendo alone even with united platform to supply SW for it alone. But we are in for a threat on the next 4-6 years to see it.

Very true



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!