Ok. This price drop thing a lot keep saying about the 3DS. Fact of the matter is that it doesnt really mean anything with regards to the Switch.

The switch cost $299. And its a hybrid. A home console that you can take on the go. Giving you full blown home console experiences but having the added bonus of making it possible to take it with you when you leave your TV. This fact can't be stressed enough. This is what has made the switch successful. 

We aren't in a world where a stand alone handheld can pull these kinda numbers anymore. Nintendo figured that out with the 3DS/2DS. And as  stand alone home console the NS with its specs would have been DOA. So its success right now is tied t it being a hybrid.

The 3DS was not a hybrid and was released to a world that was mostly moving away from handheld gaming and replacing that with mobile gaming. The WiiU failed hard because it was just flat out under powered for a dedicated home console (without the bonus of a social mind blowing gimmick). Even a lot of hardcore nintendo fans skipped the platform.

The PS4 selling 20M consoles at $299 has shown what is possible for a dedicated home console at that price. Prior to 2017 and when it was more expensive it pulled in 18M+ and 17M+ years. All the while being more expensive than $299. By comparison and finishing this year at around 16M/17M the NS is actually not doing as good at the same price or less than what the PS4 had accomplished. 

I guess an argument can be made that the games aren't there yet... but thats debatable. The NS is sellin well at $299. At least a lt better than the XB1 ever managed to do. But its $299...... in this same generation there has been another console that cost $299 and more and all the while did better than what the NS has so far accomplished. 

3DS yearly shipments
FY11-3.61m
FY12-13.53m (17.14m)
FY13-13.95m (31.09m)
FY14-12.24m (43.33m)
FY15-8.73m (52.06m)
FY16-6.79m (58.85m)
FY17-7.27m (66.12m)
FY18-6.40m (72.53m)
FY19 (estimate)-3m (75.5m)
FY20 onward-1.5m (77m)

NSW yearly shipments
FY17-2.74m
FY18-15.05m (17.79m)
FY19 (projection)-20m (37.79m)

For anyone who thinks 3DS will sell more than Switch, when do you see the tides turning in 3DS favor? I could certainly see Switch failing to hit its 20m target for this fiscal year, 17m minimum, so let's say ~35 million at the end of the fiscal year giving it a ~4 million lead over 3DS.

Let's take a look at the following fiscal year. Will it grow, decline or remain flat? It has some big hitters like Animal Crossing & Gen 8 Pokemon along with likely receiving its first price cut or revision (or both in the form of a less expansion revision). Worst case scenario is a very small decline, let's say 15m, putting it at ~50m or about 7 million ahead of 3DS.

Now onto the next year, this year could very feasibly see a moderate decline, most of the biggest hitters will have released alongside a price cut/revision, this year would likely consist mostly of sequels, remakes & spinoffs in terms of the biggest Nintendo IP. Maybe a 2nd revision could drop so let's say at most a ~33% decline to 10m putting LTD at ~60m, 8m ahead of 3DS.

For 3DS, the next year saw another modest decline followed by two relatively stable years due to Pokemon Go driving interest in 3DS Pokemon games and the $79 w/game 2DS bundles being a great introduction to gaming for young kids. It's unlikely that another PoGo phenom happens or that Switch ever drops nearly as low as 2DS so Switch sales will probably continue to decline rather than remain stable like it did for 3DS in these years. Let's say 7.5m, 5m, 2.5m & 1m. That would bring LTD numbers to ~76m.

This is pretty much a worst case scenario situation in my opinion. I would like to hear from others when and why a massive decline would occur that causes Switch to fall behind 3DS.

Are we really questioning if the Switch is in a better position than the 3DS at the same time in their respective life cycle?

Falling of a cliff™ incoming?

I agree, $250 was a terrible price for 3DS to launch at, it should have been $199 at most but still a price cut and revision in the first 1.5 years for 3DS vs neither for Switch in the same time frame should give Switch less of a decline in year 3/4.

I would say that is because that word is very precise and in this case wrong. Almost no one is being pessimistic or if they are it isn't in purpose or to troll as accused before.

It is certainly a possibility, but at the same point 3DS was running without direct contender (sure smartphones robbed a lot of customers) and a lot of 3rd party support, while Switch will be going against PS5 and X2 with a lot less 3rd party. So it really is anyone guess. Switch can keep strong and manage 100M, can fall short and end 70M. And that 30M margin is quite enough to accomodate everything besides totally unexpected changes in the landscape.

Nintendo can certainly make revisions and price cuts that entice multiple ownership along the way and some key franchises are also to come.

I think Switch will outsell 3DS and be close to 3DS+ Wii U combined. But I think most people will look to FY21 and on as more difficult years for Switch. Switch will get less price cuts and revisions than the 3DS, and lets say the Switch will be at 70m when Nintendo launch their next console. Which means it would need just ~5m to surpass 3DS and ~16m to surpass 3DS+ Wii U.

So lets be generous to Switch and say Nintendo launches a new console really late and assume no impact from PS5 and XB2.

NSW yearly shipments
FY17-2.74m
FY18-15.05m (17.79m)
FY19 (projection)-20m (37.79m)

FY20- ~20m (57m)

FY21- ~16m (73m)

FY22- ~10m (83m) New Nintendo console launch

FY23 and onwards- ~5m (88m)

The point isn't that 3DS costs less than Switch, its that it had both a price cut and revision in the first two full fiscal years and those were its peak years, neither of those things have happened for Switch yet which gives it greater potential for growth in fiscal years 3 & 4 compared to 3DS (years when it began to decline).

PS4 also needed a price cut and revision to have its peak year. 20m shipped in the fiscal year it received a price cut, Slim model & Pro model.

The thing here is that XB1 selling a bit better than 360 wasn't a good thing from the start. It is not something you would expect from a console which already has a big established fanbase. Something, 360 didn't have. Also it is hard to predict total sales of 360 if Kinect wasn't a thing. Would it be possible for it to hit that 85m mark? I wouldn't say for sure. And about turn around which you always mention - being up/flat YoY in 5th year when your main more popular rival is down and you also have another one which is very successful and the next big thing is something you wouldn't expect without some work made on the console image. If Xbox team hadn't work hard to improve their image somehow they would definitely have dropped significantly.

Ok. I get that.

My point though is that this price drop thing is not something that necessarily applies to the NS. 

Yes the PS4 needed a price drop before it saw its peak year, but prior to that it retailed for $350 and up and had years at those prices that were also really good. 

And fact of the matter is that the NS is selling really well. It may not be doing 20M @$299 numbers right now but its selling extremely well. Now what makes anyone think that nintendo is not content with it selling at its current rate and hence not be to eager to drop prices anytime soon as long as it maintains a 16M - 17M yearly sales average. 

Sony has taken that stance by pretty much refusing to drop the price of the PS4 from $299. I mean imagine what a $199 PS4 would have done in 2018 if it sold at that price all year round. But now when they do drop the price to $199 permanently it willl have less of an impact then and only keep the sales curve flat or just slightly down as opposed t massively down. Nintendo could very well be adopting the same strategy.