November NPD 2018 Thread

[Farsala]

zorg1000 said:
3DS yearly shipments
FY11-3.61m
FY12-13.53m (17.14m)
FY13-13.95m (31.09m)
FY14-12.24m (43.33m)
FY15-8.73m (52.06m)
FY16-6.79m (58.85m)
FY17-7.27m (66.12m)
FY18-6.40m (72.53m)
FY19 (estimate)-3m (75.5m)
FY20 onward-1.5m (77m)

NSW yearly shipments
FY17-2.74m
FY18-15.05m (17.79m)
FY19 (projection)-20m (37.79m)

For anyone who thinks 3DS will sell more than Switch, when do you see the tides turning in 3DS favor? I could certainly see Switch failing to hit its 20m target for this fiscal year, 17m minimum, so let's say ~35 million at the end of the fiscal year giving it a ~4 million lead over 3DS.

Let's take a look at the following fiscal year. Will it grow, decline or remain flat? It has some big hitters like Animal Crossing & Gen 8 Pokemon along with likely receiving its first price cut or revision (or both in the form of a less expansion revision). Worst case scenario is a very small decline, let's say 15m, putting it at ~50m or about 7 million ahead of 3DS.

Now onto the next year, this year could very feasibly see a moderate decline, most of the biggest hitters will have released alongside a price cut/revision, this year would likely consist mostly of sequels, remakes & spinoffs in terms of the biggest Nintendo IP. Maybe a 2nd revision could drop so let's say at most a ~33% decline to 10m putting LTD at ~60m, 8m ahead of 3DS.

For 3DS, the next year saw another modest decline followed by two relatively stable years due to Pokemon Go driving interest in 3DS Pokemon games and the $79 w/game 2DS bundles being a great introduction to gaming for young kids. It's unlikely that another PoGo phenom happens or that Switch ever drops nearly as low as 2DS so Switch sales will probably continue to decline rather than remain stable like it did for 3DS in these years. Let's say 7.5m, 5m, 2.5m & 1m. That would bring LTD numbers to ~76m.

This is pretty much a worst case scenario situation in my opinion. I would like to hear from others when and why a massive decline would occur that causes Switch to fall behind 3DS.

I think Switch will outsell 3DS and be close to 3DS+ Wii U combined. But I think most people will look to FY21 and on as more difficult years for Switch. Switch will get less price cuts and revisions than the 3DS, and lets say the Switch will be at 70m when Nintendo launch their next console. Which means it would need just ~5m to surpass 3DS and ~16m to surpass 3DS+ Wii U.

So lets be generous to Switch and say Nintendo launches a new console really late and assume no impact from PS5 and XB2.

NSW yearly shipments
FY17-2.74m
FY18-15.05m (17.79m)
FY19 (projection)-20m (37.79m)

FY20- ~20m (57m)

FY21- ~16m (73m)

FY22- ~10m (83m) New Nintendo console launch

FY23 and onwards- ~5m (88m)