And your insistence on the numbers is just coming off like you are ignoring the main points.

Let me be clear.

The most successful consoles had the highest amount of games supporting them.

And if you look at all the nintendo platforms (or any platform for that matter) its easy to see a correlation between number of games and number of consoles sold. If you want t dispute anything thats what you should focus on.

And again..... I am "ignoring" digital releases because they are not sale drivers. How I know this? Because you don't see commercials of them on TV nor are they marketed in stores. They sell t preexisting user bases. I would think this is obvious.

The simple fact of it is that there is one thing that drive the sales of any hardware.

Novelty. Novelty of the games and novelty of the hardware.

In the case of the former the games keep a steady flow of novelty into the platform' giving consumers new things t play every so often. In the case of the latter, the platform itself is the novelty. But basing the success of a platform on that alone is like trying to catch lightning in a bottle and nintendo already pulled that off with the Wii.

The point here is that unless nintendo is going to ride that hybrid train to 80M and beyond (novelty of the platform) it needs a steady influx of must have titles (novelty of the games) to make it. 

And this is something I feel a lot aren't considering when it comes to the switch. 

Is the switch going to go to 80M lifetime sales on the back of Nintendo first party alone? Cause that is what it will need to do. Because once the PS5/XB2 comes along those ports that the NS are getting now won't be there anymore. The power divide will just be too much. 

 Do people really think the arrival of the PS5 and XB2 will not affect the switch in anyway? Do people really think that nintendo first party alone is enough to carry a platform to 80M+ sales? Outside the Wii when has nintendo ever managed that feat? The secnd we start talking abut sales and exclude the call od duties next fortnite next overwatchs` next doom' next fifa and next GTA then nintendo is left solely with its first party. In a world where it cant even sell as a handheld device alone.

I do believe Switch will end around 80-85M in its lifetime too, 10M+ more than 3DS is something on par at the perfomance of Switch compared to 3DS. To be precise, by my own calculations i expect Switch to be around 75M by the end of 2022, which i consider a success because Switch is not able to run most 3rd Party AAA and because this time will have a huge online service payment that will compensate by far any less sales compared to previous gens.

First I will like to thank you for speaking objectively. This is a very touchy subject to most people. 

With the Wii.... yes nintendo made games for it. As they d fr all their platforms. But it sold primarily for motion controls. And primarily to the casual crowd. And alt of companies not just nintendo tried to partake of that crowd.

A troubling thing however is if you look at the overall game output of nintendo platforms. This ca usually be tied directly to how successful they were. eg...

DS had 4000 games. 3DS had 1700.

Wii had  2800 games. WiiU had 367.

To put it into perspective every console that has old upwards of 80M has had more than 1000 games made for it. With the best consoles havin as much as 2500+ games made for it.

This is the basis of my argument as to why i say the NS cannot do this on the back of nintendo software alone. Right now the NS is at round 100 games.

My insistence on accuracy? Your numbers were over double the real amount for Wii/DS and nearly half for Switch. Sorry that I dont want you spreading misinformation.

The points you are trying to make lack any consistency.

How time is passing Switch is continue selling much better than 3DS in same time period, Switch will be at 35m+ at end of March, 3DS was at 31m in same time period and in that time already had huge price cut and one revision, while Switch still has full price point and dont have any revision. Also 3DS in its full 3rd year on market (in Switch case we talking about FY 2019) had year of 12.2m units, Switch in same year will probably have 20m+ year. Also your calculation is bad, at end of FY 2019. Switch will probably be at around 57-60m. Talking about 3rd party games, Switch even now dont have most AAA 3rd party games.

I'm sorry (not trying to be mean or anything), but your argument seems quite flimsy to me...

First off, I never got the comparison between systems done by "number of games". It doesnt mean jack shit to me, due to 80% of those games being shovelware/no-name indie games only like 40 people will ever play. With the Wii especially, that ratio was even higher.

What matters is quality games. And Switch has a lot of them:

This chart shows that, when launches aligned, Switch is wildly outpacing Wii and Wii U when it comes to 80+ metacritic games.

That being said, lets use the metric you prefer:

As we see, if we look at total number of games, Switch is outpacing PS4 and Xbox One. 

http://www.kotaku.co.uk/2018/02/06/switch-has-three-times-as-many-games-as-wii-u-did-at-this-point-and-theyre-better

This is as of February 2018 keep in mind, but we know that there are more and more titles releasing each month so this lead most likely stands.

As time pases is becoming more and more obvious that Switch won't be at 35M+ by end of March. It's going to end 2018 around 29-30M, and it' won't sell more than 5M in the first three months of 2019....no way. in my opinion is going to be around 33M sold, and 35M shipped by end of March, like I said to you before. Switch is doing fine this holiday season and is still not enough to reach that bonkers goal of 20M FY shipments.

My prevision worked this way:

end of 2017 13M, end of 2018 29M, end of 2019 46M, end of 2020 59M, end of 2021 69M, end of 2022 77M. After it probably will have another year selling around the same and by 2024 Nintendo will probably be launching the successor. So by then, and after 7 years on the market the Switch will be around 85M. And believe me, this is my most optimistic prediction, and i'm chosing to believe this than my most pessimistic one.

I have not said at any point that the NS does not or will not have games.

All i have said is that games sells hardware. And simply looking at the number of games available n any given hardware (shovelware or not) its easy to see that the best selling hardware always have very large amounts of games available for them. The whole chicken and the egg thing.

I have als said that I do not believe that nintendo can take the NS to 80M based on first party games alone. And that for them to hit that number and beyond then they will need alot more games (preferably great ones) than their first party alone can muster.

But somehow...... these points make no sense to any of you?

You guys dont have to agree with what I am saying. But to say the logic behind basically saying games are the best way to sell hardware and preferably a steady flow of great new games is flawed is well..... idk.

My reasoning is simple. And I have tried multiple times to explain it. 

Every major and successful IP release on a new platform generates a certain amount of buzz. Brings in new buyers. Eg (and this is jut an example!!!) if GOW amounted to the sales of 1M PS4s in say 2014, GOW2 may only account for like 200k sales. So you need a lot of sale drivers like that to keep the sales going strong. Nintendo does nt have enough stand alone IPs to spread out over a 5 year period having at least 5 - 10 must have games released each year that could drive sales. 

They have their usual great games and I am saying that that will not be enough.  

When we talking about LT numbers and officaly numbers we always talking about shipped numbers, those are only officall numbers we have, so its pointless to even mentione sold numbers. How time is passing its more and more obvious it will be 35m+ at end of March, 1.35m for November in US (75% incrase compared to same month of last year) and 280k week in Japan are latest example. This year Q3 November-December will be at around 10m, last year same period was 7.5m, Switch is currently at 23m with those 10m from Q3 Switch will be at around 33m+ at end of this year, 3m+ for Q4 is safe bet, so 35m+ for end of March is very safe bet. Switch maybe want hit projected those 20m (even it has good chanches and that goal now seems much more possible), but even if they dont hit it will do at least 18-19m.

It much easier to give estimates for full FY because for them we have/will have official numbers, at end of FY 2018 Switch will be around 36-38m, at end of FY 2019. 58-60m, I dont see point giving estimates for 2020. or later because we still dont know what could expect in 2020. and what sales could be. But this show we have very different expecations, I expecting around 60m at end of FY 2019. while you expecting similar number at end of 2020, we will see who will be right, next month when Nintendo brings Nov-Dec results will be great insight, and you already eat crow one time. :D

He has the right to not like what was said about him here, but he had no right to insult every member of this forum for something EVERY GAMING FORUM can be accused of. It was totally inapropiate, and if i dare to say, in a very coward manner, using a way more popular forum to put people against this forum. He probably doesn't like to fight their numbers against VGC because it goes against his interests for his twiter account popularity, and he knows his numbers are more close to the official numbers, so he is more reliable to get real numbers (most people here agree on that), but VGC never lied about its numbers. VGC numbers are not official, they're just the work of using current info to bring a closer aproximation of what the actual numbers of gaming sales are. VGC makes continually adjustments to get close to official data every time now and then. No one here says that you have to trust VGC numbers against any other media or info available for gaming selling numbers.

And VGC forums, and its members have way more and better discussions about sales that what i see in other sites. VGC doesn't deserve such behavior from NPD leakers or other gaming forum members. Mat Piscatella and Benji are very valuable posters in Resetera, but they not only give numbers, they give opinions too. So, the moment they start doing that, people will react always. Compared to ZhugeEX, he express his opinions in forums at a minimum giving mostly only facts and numbers, so almost nobody discuss anything he says. That's how gaming forum works. They're going to be always people that are against what you said or think, and if they're not...., well, it doesn't talk very well about diverstiy of opinions and free speech then.

Very well said. Agree completely.

Of all the number posters my all time favorite and still my favorite has been ZhugeEX. Thats how you do it. He says what he has to say and keeps it to the facts of it. No one has ever argued with him. These other numbers leakers are really just entitled brats if you ask me. And thrive in communities like Gaf and Era because those communities have a hive mentality. Its almost like talking to a forum of one. And I don't think thats healthy. And mind you.... I am a member of Era. Never posted n there though. 

Benji was never on my radar until now and for the wrong reasons..... if you don't want what you say to be challenged? Then keep your mouth shut.

And this is why I like VGC...... its a sesspool of very opinionated people and while we get extremes of it atimes thats pretty normal. The mods keep things civil but all opinions no matter how ridiculous are allowed to be expressed here. Anyone can be called out. No exceptions. 

This year the switch is going to do around 16M at best. Which is great but a far cry from then going on to do 25M in sales the next year. Its currently at 11M s its even generous saying it will sell 5M consoles in the last 5 weeks of 2018. I dont know how some in the ninty camp see these things or if they are mixing up shipped and sold numbers.. but whatever it is its just unrealistic.  

Can they do 18M or even 19M in sales next year? Absolutely and more in line with what I would expect... but 20M and up is very unrealistic to me. I am very very very curious to know what people feel the sales drivers are going to be to make it go from a 15M -16M year to a 20M - 25M year though. 

You have some problem with reading or understanding point that someone is trying to make, you keep replying to people things they didnt wrote.

I am right, I never said that Nintendo is wining US markets, I said that for Nintendo US market is strongest market while Europe is strongest market for Sony, and thats a fact. Nintendo is selling most if its consoles on US market while Sony selling most of its console on Europe market simple as that, MS also selling also most of consoles to US (but Xbox brand is generally much weaker on any other market).

For your information, despite Japan prefers handheld mostly, Nintendo handhelds also sold most in US not in Japan.

When people talking about hole year they talking about shipped numbers because those are only official numbers we getting from Nintendo, this year Switch will maybe even hit their target of 20m shipped units, 18-19m is like minimum they will ship. Next year more than 20m is very likely. Even Wii had only year with 26m shipped units, not sold units, no one said that Switch can sell 25m in 2019.

100% agree.  Especially about the discussions, even those outside of sales.  We have a large mixed crowd here from all sides of the spectrum, both politically and in terms of gaming preference.  We can have heated conversations about anything, and as long as things don't get personal, those conversations are allowed to continue.  On ResetEra, if you don't agree with the hive, you will be moderated.  Even banned. 

Strange we have people predicting 25M for next year, when it's looking very questionable that they can even hit the 20M they predicted for this year.  If they have a great lineup, coupled with a permanent cut to $199, I could see it happening.  Maybe.  The Wii hit 25M+ its second full FY on the market, at the height of Wii fever.  Switch is a popular console, but I don't see the same fervor around it that surrounded the Wii earlier in its life.

Doesnt matter. Still gonna reach 80 million without a doubt. I'll bet on it. Its tracking ahead of the 3DS by a good margin, and will never fall behind it, so it get to 80M off that alone.

Yes motion control is what sold the wii. However it was pushed by nintendo's games itself. Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Mariokart, Smash Brawl, Galaxy, etc. Wii Sports and Fit in particular, the wii wouldnt have been such a success without them.

Wii U was horribly botched with bad marketing and a confusing name that made it seem like some tablet add-on. It didnt help the casual market migrated to mobile, either.

The difference with the Switch is that we're seeing a unified first party that when are combined, can absolutely do 80 million without a doubt. Keep in mind this is the first home console with mainline pokemon on it, something that will sell north of 15 million copies (we just saw a taste of whats to come with lets go). 

Ok. So now I am being narrow minded.......

You would have been better off adding fortnite to your argument. As that is a very popular digital only game. 

But ok. its off your opinion that indies sell hardware? Its off mine they don't. And for the reasons I have pointed out. I think its safe to say this debate has ran its course because now you are bordering alon the lines of insults. 

So how about we agree to disagree?

He's not wrong. Individual indie games don't sell consoles for the most part, but the steady flow of them does. It's the same concept but to a lesser extent with Nintendo's 2nd tier/3rd tier franchises. Mario Tennis Aces might not sell as many consoles as Zelda but it all goes towards a net benefit. 

A more accurate comparison would be to use calendar years.

First-year Sales

PS4 (2014): 4.70M
XBO (2014): 4.36M
NS (2017): 4.87M
3DS (2011): 4.11M

Second-year Sales, Jan.-Nov.

PS4 (2015): 4.15M
XBO (2015): 3.56M
NS (2018): 3.86M
3DS (2012): 2.29M

Total

PS4: 8.85M
XBO: 7.92M
NS: 8.73M
3DS: 6.40M

The Switch is doing about on par with the PS4. The only two systems to surpass the two (that we have data for) in that same span were the PS2 (12.06M) and Wii (14.31M).

The only reason the XBO has maintained a lead is because of its far superior launch and how well it's done during the holidays. It's Jan.-Oct. sales were nothing spectacular. Except for the Feb.-July period of 2015, the XBO's non-holiday sales have been consistently worse than the 360's. But it's the holidays, and especially November, where the XBO has made up for that. It wasn't until 2011 that we started to see big Black Friday discounts from retailers, and it wasn't until this generation that Sony & MS started to issue official temporary price cuts during the holidays. As a result, the XBO's November's blew the 360's out of the water for four years straight, and has given it slightly better Decembers so far. The XBO also had the second-biggest launch of any system launched in Q4, surpassed only by the PS4, whereas the 360 had quite the mediocre launch thanks to supply constraints.